业内预计，随着首套房贷政策松动、降息等政策环境的改善，一二线城市积压的刚性需求以及部分改善性需求将继续得到释放，促进成交量平稳回升

The industry is expected to，Along with the set of housing policy loose、Cut the improvement of the environment and other policies，A second city the backlog of rigid needs, and part of the improvement of demand will continue to release，Promote smooth volume back

　　7月份历来是楼市销售的淡季。不过，今年的状况则有些不同，根据中原市场研究部统计数据显示，截至7月25日，月内全国主要城市的商品房签约再创新高，合计总签约套数达21.28万套，环比上月同期增长了6.9%，全月成交量有望达到28万套，再创年内成交量新高。其中北上广深四个一线城市商品房成交量的增速最为迅猛，达二线城市增速的6倍。

In July, has always been a property market sales season。but，This year's situation is different，According to the central plains market research statistics show，By July 25,，Month of the major cities in China commodity house signing hit a record high，Total aggregate signing a cycle of 212800 set，Annulus comparing 6.9% increase over the same period of last month，The month is expected to reach 280000 sets of volume，Create years high volume。To the north of guangshen four a line, the volume of urban commercial houses the rate of growth of the most rapidly，Up to second city 6 times of growth。

成交量再创新高 Volume hit a record high

　　业内人士指出，近期连续的两次降息，对市场的影响尤为明显。2012年6月8日起，央行决定下调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率0.25个百分点，不足一月，央行再次宣布自7月6日起下调利率，进一步推动了本已复苏的市场。

Industry insiders point，Recent successive two cuts，The influence of the market is especially remarkable。On June 8, 2012 up，Central bank decided to cut financial organ renminbi the benchmark interest rate 0.25%，For less than a month，The central bank announced again since the July 6, up to cut interest rates，Further the already recovery of the market。

　　而有分析认为，受交易系统备案和调控政策滞后性影响，近期降息并未使得成交量持续放大，但已成功打破市场的观望情绪，助推积压已久的刚需和部分改善性需求进一步释放。

While analysis think，The record by trading system and control the hysteresis influence policy，Recent did not make volume cut interest rates for amplification，But has successfully broken market wait-and-see mood，Thrusting backlog already a long time of just need to improve and part of the sexual needs further release。

　　根据北京市住建委网站数据统计，截至7月25日，月内北京新建住宅签约9615套，较上月同期的9158套上涨了5%。业内专家预计全月成交量将超接近1.3万套，在以往的销售淡季创出年内成交新高。

According to the Beijing municipal live is built appoint website statistics，By July 25,，Beijing new residence within the signing of 9615 sets，In the same period of 9158 set last month is up 5%。The industry experts expect the month turnover will close to 13000 sets of super，In the past the off-season clinch a deal makes years sales hit a record high。

　　中指院的研究报告就表示，从近期成交量周数据来看，7月前三周重点城市较6月底回落，但仍高于2008年以及2010-2011年同期水平，仅低于2009年同期。今年7月前三周，10个代表城市成交量为650万平方米，较6月前三周略降1%，但周均成交量与6月最后一周相比大幅回落35%。主要是由于开发企业冲刺年中业绩，助推6月最后一周成交量攀升，导致前三周成交量较6月底有所回落，但也仍处于近年较高水平，延续了年初以来的持续增长态势。同比来看，7月前三周大幅增长63%，与2010年和2008年同期比较增幅也在90%左右，虽比2009年同期的历史高位(6月)仍下降24%，但作为传统淡季，成交量仍旧突出。

The research report is the middle finger said，Recent data from volume weeks to see，July 3 weeks before a key city fell back to the end of June，But still higher than the 2008 and 2010-2011 in the same period level，Only lower than the same period in 2009。Three weeks before July this year，10 for 6.5 million square meters, the volume of representative cities，A June 3 weeks before slightly down 1%，But weeks are volume and the last week of June compared to 35% drop sharply。Is mainly due to the development enterprise sprint years performance，The last week of June, the volume of drivers to climb，The first three weeks to volume is to drop back to the end of June，But it is still at the higher level in recent years，Since the beginning of the continued the continued growth of the situation。Up to see，Three weeks before the July increase 63%，And in 2010 and 2008, the increase has compared at around 90%，Although more than the same period in 2009 historic highs(June)Still down 24%，But as a traditional slack，Volume is still outstanding。

一线城市增速明显 A city growth obvious

　　同时，从不同城市的近期周成交数据来看，一二线城市回升力度更大，其中一线城市变化最为显著。

At the same time，The recent weeks from different cities to clinch a deal data to see，A second city rebounded more strength，One of the most significant changes in city。

　　7月前三周，一二线城市成交量分别为180万平方米、95万平方米，较去年同期分别增长29%、37%，回升力度远远高于同期三线城市(增长1%)。且从绝对量来看，一线城市仍是最大。与6月前三周相比，一线城市商品房成交量增长了12%，为二线城市增速的6倍，说明一线城市回升力度更大，市场反应更敏感，三线城市则下降7%。

Three weeks before the July，A second city volume for 1.8 million square meters respectively、950000 square meters，Compared to the same period last year growth of 29%, respectively、37%，Back up strength is much higher than in the same period, three lines city(1% increase)。And from the absolute and see，A city is still the largest。And before June than three weeks，A line the urban commercial volume growth of 12%，For second line 6 times of urban growth，A line that city picks up strength more，Market reaction more sensitive，Three line it dropped 7% in the city。

　　而从不同城市的历史成交数据来看，一二线城市成交量波动大于三线城市，受利率等宏观政策和推出量等指标变化更为敏感。2009年，房地产市场整体形势良好，另外在2008年末开始的5次降息累加作用影响下，成交量大幅攀升，一二线城市增幅均在85%以上，三线城市增幅略小，为68%。2010年，受房地产宏观调控影响，成交量普遍下降，其中一二线城市分别下降为40%和31%，而三线城市降幅仅为11%。2011年，受2010年10月起连续5次加息以及市场整体低迷的影响，一二线城市成交下降超过15%，但三线城市却逆市微增2%。从历史上看，一二线城市成交量波动较大，受宏观政策影响最敏感，而三线城市受政策影响最小，这也是调控后成交量较为稳定的主要原因。预计随着首套房贷政策松动、降息等政策环境的改善，一二线城市积压的刚性需求以及部分改善性需求将继续得到释放，促进成交量平稳回升。

And the history of the city from different clinch a deal data to see，A second city volume greater than three line wave city，Interest rates by macro policy and launch of change is more sensitive index。2009 years，The real estate market overall situation is good，Another in late 2008 the first 5 times accumulative effect to cut interest rates，Turnover has risen sharply，A second city growth were above 85%，Three line increase slightly small city，68%。2010 years，By real estate macro-control effect，Generally, the volume of decline，One second city were down 40% and 31%，And three line by city is only 11%。2011 years，By the 2010 October 5 times in a row overall market interest rates and the influence of the downturn，A second city clinch a deal to fall by more than 15%，But three city but inverse city micro increased by 2%。Look from the history，A second city volume volatile，Macro policy influence by the most sensitive，And three line by city minimal impact on policy，This is after a relatively stable volume control main reason。With the first set of housing policy is expected to become loose、Cut the improvement of the environment and other policies，A second city the backlog of rigid needs, and part of the improvement of demand will continue to release，Promote smooth volume back。