业内专业人士认为，中央对房地产行业的调控政策仍然难以放松，房企未来的盈利前景仍然堪忧，尤其是中小房企，在“项目滞销”及“融资障碍”的双重夹击下，后路将会更为艰难。地产股的调整是市场对未来调控政策可能加码的反映，房地产板块的集体强势可能会告一段落。

Industry insiders think，Central to the real estate industry control policy it is still difficult to relax，Room future earnings prospects enterprises still care，Especially little rooms in enterprises，in“Project slow-moving”and“Financing obstacles”Under the double flank，A posterior approach will be more difficult。The market is to adjust property counters were future regulation policy may reflect the pyramid，The housing sector of the collective strength may be over。

　　虽然房地产企业在过去三个月中的迅猛出货大大缓解了资金链的压力，但这并不意味着过去大半年来所面临困境的结束。

Although real estate enterprise in the past three months of rapid delivery greatly alleviate the pressure of the capital chain，But this does not mean that the past to face the dilemma redeemed end。

　　8月2日，A股市场宽幅振荡并再次下跌，其中受取消预售制传闻影响，地产股集体大跌成为罪魁祸首，再次显示出在房地产调控可能加码的背景下房地产企业的脆弱。而近期64家房企发布的中报预告也显示，超过半数的上市房企对上半年业绩预亏预警。专家表示，从近期决策层的动作看，房地产调控政策不会轻易放松，未来房地产业盈利前景仍然堪忧，尤其是中小房企，在“项目滞销”及“融资障碍”的双重夹击下，后路将更为艰难。

August 2，The A share market wide oscillation and fall again，Many of those cancel that open to booking system influence，Collective property counters were plunged culprit become，Once again shows that in real estate regulation may stir background of the real estate enterprises vulnerable。But in 64 home room by enterprises is also mentioned center daily news shows，More than half of the public room the first half performance vulnerable to advance warning of the deficit。Experts say，The action of the decision-making from recent look，Real estate control policy will not easily to relax，The future real estate industry earnings outlook is still grim，Especially little rooms in enterprises，in“Project slow-moving”and“Financing obstacles”Under the double flank，A posterior approach will be more difficult。

　　传言令房地产板块大跌

Rumors make real estate sector plummeted

　　凸显市场脆弱

Highlight market vulnerable

　　如果取消预售制将会对房地产板块产生多大的影响？从最近两日股市的表现中可见一斑。

If cancel to open to booking system will be in the housing sector have much impact？Recently, the stock market from two evidenced in performance。

　　8月2日，房地产股大跌2.72%，位居跌幅榜首位。数据显示，当日房地产板块的跌幅超过4%。截至收盘，苏宁环球(000718,股吧)跌停，招商地产(000024,股吧)跌9.81%，保利地产(600048,股吧)跌9.17%，万科A跌6.75%，北京城建(600266,股吧)跌6.19%，金地集团(600383,股吧)跌6.38%。分析人士称，导致地产板块大幅下跌的原因，除了国务院派出多路督查组会诊房价并不排除会有新一轮调控政策出台外，关于北京将试点取消房地产销售预售制度且当晚即将正式出台相关政策的传言则给了房地产板块沉重的一击。市场观察家表示，“此传言若属实，无疑将令目前房企已极为紧张的资金链更加紧张。”

August 2，Real estate stocks plummeted 2.72%，In a fall at the top。Data shows，On that day the real estate sector fell more than 4%。By the closing，Suning universal(000718,Shares it)Drop stop，Investment real estate(000024,Shares it)Down 9.81%，Poly real estate(600048,Shares it)Down 9.17%，China vanke A fell 6.75%，The Beijing urban construction(600266,Shares it)Down 6.19%，Ltd.gemdale corporation(600383,Shares it)Down 6.38%。Analysts say，Led to a sharp drop in the real estate sector of the reason，In addition to sending more DuZhaZu consultation under the state council and house prices will have a new round of regulation is not out of the policies，About Beijing will pilot cancellation of real estate sales to open to booking system and the formal introduction to the relevant policies that will give the housing sector heavy blow。Market watchers said，“If the rumours are correct，No doubt will present enterprises already extremely nervous room capital chain more nervous。”

　　针对有关传言，住建部当晚澄清称，目前并没有发布取消预售证的相关政策，也不会出来对这件事进行表态和证实。分析人士也称，商品房预售制度短期内如若取消将会造成供不应求反而引发房价暴涨，且取消预售证制度必须通过人大常委会立法通过，实施起来周期会比较长，所以暂不会轻易取消。而本次国务院督查组的调研会议中也并未提及。

According to relevant rumours，Live JianBu clarify says that night，There is no official cancelled the relevant policy to open to booking card，Also won't comment on this thing out and confirmed。Analysts also say，Commodity house opens to booking a system in the short term if cancel will be caused in short supply instead cause prices soaring，And cancel opens to booking a certificate system must through the National People's Congress standing committee through legislation，Implement up will be long cycle，So are not easily canceled。And the meeting of the state council DuZhaZu investigation also did not mention。

　　8月3日，受证监会再度下调交易费用利好的影响，A股市场出现较为可观的上涨，房地产板块也迅速反弹，绝大部分地产股上涨，众和股份(002070,股吧)、大龙地产(600159,股吧)、沙河股份(000014,股吧)等涨幅居前。

August 3,，By CSRC again the effect of good transaction costs down，The A share market appear more considerable rise，The real estate sector also rebound，Most of the property counters were to rise，All the shares and(002070,Shares it)、Dragon real estate(600159,Shares it)、Sha he shares(000014,Shares it)Etc or the first。

　　但分析人士表示，虽然住建部的澄清暂时平息了市场的恐慌，但却也凸显出市场的脆弱以及对未来调控将会继续加码的担忧。

But analysts said，Despite living JianBu clarification temporarily down to market panic，But it also highlights the market for the future of the fragile and regulation will continue to stir concerns。

　　中央调控决心依旧

The central control determination remains

　　政策或将择时而出

Policy or will choose out sometimes

　　越来越多的信号显示，中央对房地产调控政策不会轻易放松。

More and more signal display，Central to the real estate control policies will not easily to relax。

　　事实上，针对近期地产成交量回暖、房价上涨、“地王”再现、地方政府放松楼市“小动作”不断等现象，7月份，各相关部委多达10次强调要坚持房地产调控不动摇；近日，国务院则派出了8个督察组，对包括北京在内的16个省区市的房地产调控进行专项督察；7月31日，中央政治局会议更是明确提出“坚定不移地贯彻执行房地产市场调控政策，切实防止房价反弹”的要求，直接粉碎了放松调控的愿望。

In fact，According to recent real estate volume thaw、Prices rise、“royal”reproduce、The local government to relax in the sector“incidents”Continuously the phenomenon such as，July，The relevant ministries as many as ten stressed the need to insist on real estate regulation not be moved；recently，The state council is sent the eight DuChaZu，For including Beijing, 16 of these special inspectors to real estate regulation；July 31,，The central political bureau meeting is explicitly proposed“Unswervingly implement the real estate market adjustment and control policies，To prevent prices rebound”requirements，Crushed the relaxation regulation of direct desire。

　　安邦咨询认为，这凸显出中央房地产调控的决心依旧，倘若地方政府再陆续被曝光“小动作”不断，恐将惹出储备调控政策而令楼市再遭重创。

Consulting policies that，This highlights the central real estate regulation determination remains，If the local government in succession to be exposed“incidents”constantly，Fear will make a reserve control policies and make property market to trauma。

　　“事实证明房地产市场的反弹已经受到中央的高度关注，房价出现类似于2009年的迅速大幅反弹从而引发更严厉调控的可能性小，但房地产的调控严厉程度已经远远高于市场预期。地产政策负面预期的增强对投资者的短期情绪也将产生负面影响。”民生证券一分析师表示。

“Facts prove the bounce of the real estate market has been a central concern，House prices in 2009 appear similar rapid rebound sharply and cause more stringent regulation less likely，But real estate control severe has far higher than market expectations。Real estate policy negative expected to strengthen the short-term investors will also mood negative effects。”A people's livelihood securities analysts said。

　　有消息人士称，取消商品房预售制度的传闻，并非空穴来风。包括住建部在内的有关部门，正在研究评估取消预售制度带来的影响。而取消预售制度，正是专家建议中央加大房地产调控力度的备选方案之一。住建部也在评估和研究取消预售制度对市场带来的影响和政策推出的时机。该人士认为，短期内立即推出该政策的可能性不大，相比之下，更大面积推广房产税的条件反而更成熟。

Have a source said，Cancel the commodity house opens to booking a system of the season，reinforces。JianBu including living, the relevant departments，Are research assessment of the impact of the open to booking system cancelled。And cancel to open to booking system，It is the central increase experts suggest real estate control power options one。Live JianBu also in evaluation and research to open to booking system to market cancel the impact of the policy and the launch of the time。This personage thinks，The short term immediately launch the policy is unlikely，compared，The more widespread housing property tax conditions instead more mature。

　　随着高层不断传出继续严控房价反弹，加大房地产调控的声音，市场上的观望情绪又开始凝聚。国际著名评级公司穆迪表示，将继续维持对中国房地产行业的负面展望。穆迪副总裁、分析师曾启贤称，穆迪对中国房地产市场稳定性感到担忧，他担心国务院督查组调研楼市后，中央政府可能会要求地方政府加大对投机者的打击力度，房地产销售可能因此出现波动。

Along with the top spread to continue tight control of house prices rebound，Increasing the voice of the real estate regulation，Market watch again on emotional coherence。The international famous ratings company moody's said，Will continue to maintain the Chinese real estate industry negative outlook。Moody's vice President、Analysts CengQiXian says，Moody's to China's real estate market stability worried，He worried that the state council DuZhaZu investigation after the property market，The central government may be required local governments to increase speculators enforced，Real estate sales could thus be volatile。

　　调控影响已显现

Control effect has revealed

　　未来房企盈利前景堪忧

The future room enterprises earnings prospects are grim

　　深交所对上市房企2011年年报统计显示，2011年宏观调控对房地产上市公司的影响已显现。具体数据显示，2011年深交所房地产开发与经营行业公司的资产负债率处于较高水平，平均达72.88%，较2010年上升2.16个百分点。此外，2011年房地产上市公司净资产收益率为14.89%，虽然没有明显下滑，但房地产上市公司存货水平继续增加，平均现金流量净额为-6.01亿元，整体资金压力凸显。

Shenzhen listed enterprises to room 2011 report statistics show，2011 years of macroeconomic regulation listed property the impact of the company has revealed。Specific data shows，Shenzhen 2011 real estate development and management industry company asset ratio in the higher level，Average of 72.88%，A 2.16% increase over 2010。In addition，2011 real estate listed company net assets yield is 14.89%，Although there is no obvious downturn，But real estate listed company inventory levels continue to increase，Average net cash flow for-601 million yuan，The overall financial pressure highlights。

　　而目前64家已发布的上半年业绩预告则显示，楼市严厉的调控政策在上市房企2012年上半年的业绩中体现的更加明显。根据搜房日前发布的统计报告，7月26日，沪深两市上市房企中，共有64家发布业绩预告。其中9家预亏、19家预减、24家预增、5家预盈、6家预警、1家减亏，净利润预亏、预减及预警的房企合计共有34家，占总数的53%。

And the house of 64 the released the first half performance forecast is displayed，Market control policy in the harsh listed room enterprises for the first half of 2012 to reflect in the performance of the more obvious。According to the statistics released by housing report，July 26,，Shenzhen city enterprises listed in two rooms，A total of 64 release performance forecast。Nine home the kui、19 the minus、24 the increase、5 home the surplus、6 companies warning、1 JianKui home，Net profit the kui、The reduction of the room and early warning there were 34 total enterprises home，Accounting for 53% of the total。

　　在净利润方面，6家上市房企在2012年上半年出现了净利润同比下降，其中卧龙地产(600173,股吧)净利润同比下滑幅度达48.89%。

In net profit in，6 listed room enterprises in the first half of 2012 the year-on-year drop in net profit，The real estate of(600173,Shares it)Net profit fell 48.89% year-on-year range。

　　一位业内专业人士认为，虽然部分房企的亏损和利润下滑缘于报告期内结算项目少等结构性因素，但是超过半数以上房企出现亏损或利润下滑，且亏损房企数超过了2011年年报披露时的8家，充分表明房地产调控对房企利润的影响十分深入。

An industry insiders think，Although some room of declining profits and losses of the enterprise due to report period settlement project such as less structural factors，But more than half or more room to losses in enterprises or falling profits，And losses room enterprises for more than 2011 years of annual reports 8 home，Fully show that real estate controls for the influence of the enterprise profit room is very deep。

　　该人士称，中央对房地产行业的调控政策仍然难以放松，房企未来的盈利前景仍然堪忧，尤其是中小房企，在“项目滞销”及“融资障碍”的双重夹击下，后路将会更为艰难。

This person said，Central to the real estate industry control policy it is still difficult to relax，Room future earnings prospects enterprises still care，Especially little rooms in enterprises，in“Project slow-moving”and“Financing obstacles”Under the double flank，A posterior approach will be more difficult。

　　中银国际认为，政策方面，多地“地王”出现促使房价有一定的上涨压力，这将迫使调控政策的进一步收紧，而长期来看，限购限贷短期难松，这将限制行业整体增速，同时价格的实质性下跌对于房企的毛利率将有所侵蚀，并在未来一年内将有所体现，因此维持对板块的“中立”评级。

We expect the，policy，more“royal”Appear to have certain upward pressure on prices，It will force further tightening control policy，And in the long term，限购 limit to borrow short-term loose，This will limit the overall growth industry，At the same time the substantial price drop for room of the enterprises will have eroded gross margin，And in the next year will be reflected，So keep on the plate“neutral”rating。

　　不过，房地产板块后市走势如何，仍将取决于国务院督查后新一轮调控政策的出台时机及力度。一家券商研究机构判断称，下半年地产股的上涨空间和高度将进入越来越难以把握的混沌阶段，政策的容忍度将决定行情的高度。

but，The housing sector is how the trend，Will still depends on the state council after protecting new regulation policies in time and efforts。A judge says brokers research institutions，The second half of the property counters were rising and highly will go into space become more and more difficult to grasp the chaotic stage，The policy will determine the height of the market of tolerance。

　　东海证券一营业部投资顾问李劲风表示，房价持续反弹导致管理层敏感的神经进一步绷紧，作为房地产商来说，这样高调房价的反弹和房地产市场的放量并不明智。“地产股的调整是市场对未来调控政策可能加码的反映，房地产板块的集体强势可能会告一段落。”

Donghai securities investment adviser LiJinFeng said a sales department，House prices continue to rebound management sensitive nerve take up further，As for the real estate business，Such high-profile house prices rebound and real estate market tumbled of sensible。“The market is to adjust property counters were future regulation policy may reflect the pyramid，The housing sector of the collective strength may be over。”