上海易居房地产研究院发展研究所近日发布的《二季度全国房地产市场形势分析报告》（下称《报告》）提出，二季度的房地产数据和实事表明客观存在五大反差，相互抵触的市场信息能否有一个明确的未来预期？房地产主动调控短期来讲或是今年增长速度下滑的一个重要原因，房地产市场回暖或引发偏离调控目标的担忧，但“调控不放松”和“稳增长”一致吗？如何把握好宏观经济走势和房地产政策调控的相互关系成为社会关注的焦点。

Shanghai real estate development research institute in easily released recently《In the second quarter of the national real estate market situation analysis report》（Said the《report》）Put forward，The second quarter real estate data and the objective existence that five big contrast，Conflict with each other market information could have a clear future expected？Real estate active control short-term speaking or this year's growth rate of decline one important reason，The real estate market warms up or cause deviation control target concerns，but“Regulation not to relax”and“Steady growth”Consistent?？How to grasp good macroeconomic trends and real estate policy control the relationship of the society become the focus of attention。

　　《报告》分析认为，当前全国房地产市场形势出现五个反差，表现在宏观经济全面走低，房地产主要指标走高；房地产绝对值主要指标上升，但同比增幅仍在下滑；房地产销售面积和销售金额同比增幅高于一季度，投资和新开工面积同比增幅却低于一季度；主要房地产指标全国低，四十个重点城市高；房地产政策调控中央政府仍紧，地方政府趋松。

《report》Analyzed that，The current national real estate market situation appeared five contrast，Performance in macroeconomic comprehensive lower，Real estate main index go up；Real estate absolute value main index rise，But the year-on-year rate of increase is still in the downturn；Real estate sales area and sales amount year-on-year rate of increase than quarter，Investment and new commenced area is lower than the year-on-year rate of increase in the first quarter；Major real estate index national low，Forty key city high；Real estate policy control the central government still tight，The local government is loose。

　　今年6月份以来，房地产市场也逐渐出现回暖迹象。对此，《报告》指出这其中有四个方面的因素：一是由于我国经济下滑，中央政府释放重大政策调整信号。原来预计今年一季度是我国经济非常困难的时候，但发展实践证明二季度我国宏观经济比一季度更为困难，而且是否见底并不明朗。国家非常及时明确地进行了主要体现在货币政策和财政政策的预调微调，而实际上新的政策举动远超预调微调的范围。这又表现在连续下调准备金率后，不到一个月时间内连续调整贷款利率；同时，还启动一系列国家级、区域级的基本建设项目和重点工程项目。

Since June this year，The real estate market also gradually appear warmer signs。this，《report》Points out that there are four factors：One is because our country economic downturn，The central government to release major policy adjustment signal。Originally estimated quarter this year is China's economy is very difficult，But the development practice of the macro economy in the second quarter of proof than quarter more difficult，And if see bottom is not clear。Countries in the very clearly mainly reflects in monetary policy and fiscal policy presetters fine-tuning，But in fact the new policy move far beyond the preset fine-tune the range。It also revealed in continuous cut after reserve rate，In less than a month loan interest rate adjust continuously；At the same time，Also start a series of national、Area of the basic level of construction projects and key engineering projects。

　　二是地方政府不断挑战房地产调控政策红线，形成群体市场效应。与中央政府提升经济采取财政投资拉动政策和货币宽松促进政策不同，地方政府稳经济增长（主要是稳财政收入）的措施是房地产（卖地、税收）和招商引资。土地转让和招商引资实际上已成为二十年来中国各个城市形态和功能改变提升的基本抓手、根本路径和主要经验。地方政府当前面对的主要压力是经济增速下滑、财政收入困难和巨额地方债到期。在高举房地产政策调控和限购的旗帜下，各地结合实际情况，做的都是促进房地产市场回暖的具体措施。地方政府的实际措施释放给市场的都是宽松放缓性的信号。

2 it is the local government to challenge the real estate control policy red line，Form the group market effect。And the central government to promote the economic financial investment policy and monetary loose promote pulled the same policies，The local government steady economic growth（Main is steady revenue）The measures are real estate（prime、tax）And investment promotion。Land transfer and investment promotion has actually become twenty years China urban form and function change each ascending basic means、Fundamental path and the main experience。The local government of the main pressure is currently face economic growth slowdown、Fiscal revenue difficulties and major local debt due。In real estate policy control and exalted 限购 under the banner of the，According to the practice all over，The real estate market is to promote warms up in the concrete measures。The local government of the actual measures release to the market is slowing the signal of loose。

　　三是首套房和自住改善住房需求压力阶段性释放。在严厉的房地产调控政策背景下，购房群体自然延缓入市，等待价格下跌。一般情况下，是政策多发期紧缩期在前，市场观望期等待期在后。一旦进入政策空窗期，价格又久等不下，限购政策效应递减，特别是又看到国家宏观经济下滑政府又出台预调微调措施之后，积压下来的住房消费需求就需要阶段性的正常释放。

Three is a suite and self living improve housing demand pressures release stage。In severe real estate regulation policy background，Purchase group natural delay the market，Waiting for prices。In general，Is the policy tightening will occur frequently in the first period，Watching the market of the waiting period。Once in the window period of the policy，Price is not waiting，限购 policy effect is degressive，Especially and see national macro economic downturn government put in place after dueto fine-tuning measures，The backlog of housing consumption demand is down to normal bouts of release。

　　四是楼市预期发生变化。中央政府经济政策的调整，地方政府购房管制的松动，土地购置在低位出现渐升的溢价率，开发企业以价换量销售策略的推行，住房合理需求的阶段性释放，投资性的豪宅产品出现区域性热销，正是这六个方面的因素带动、互动，产生了我国二季度我国房地产市场的回暖现象，引发整个社会舆论出现了楼市将变的预期判断。

Four are the property market expectations change。The central government economic policy adjustments，The local government buys a room to control the loose，Land purchase in the low post appear rising premium rates，Development enterprises to change the price of the implementation of the sales strategy，Housing reasonable requirement the phases of release，The investment of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage products appear regional sell like hot cakes，It is these six aspects of the drive、interaction，Produced in China real estate market in China in the second quarter of buoyancy phenomenon，Cause the whole social public opinion appeared property market will become expected judgment。

　　对于当前宏观经济形势与房地产调控的关系，《报告》认为需要重点把握六个方面的问题。一是二季度乃至整个上半年，40个重点城市房地产市场回暖，领先于全国市场。40个重点城市的房地产动态走向，是全国房地产动态走向的领跑者和风向标；二是当前人们对本轮我国宏观经济下滑的原因和解决问题的对策，在认识上不一致。因此致使调控政策执行不一致，调控政策效果不确定，市场前景预期不明朗；三是我国房地产的市场信息有的时候是混乱的，甚至是互相抵触的，尽管这些信息都是真实的。房地产市场未来走势直接取决于调控政策的执行力度和宏观经济的发展态势；三是对现行房地产调控政策执行的主要障碍，不在于消费者，不在于房地产企业，当然他们也存在着不理解和抵触，而在于我国六百多个地级市和两千多个县级市政府；四是如同我国核心利益不能泛化一样，房地产政策调控关键期也不能长期化，没有长期化的关键期。与其称现在为政策调控关键期，不如称之为政策调控博弈期；六是在“限购”严格执行的环境下，中短期内暂不存在房地产投资量、销售量、销售额和房价大幅上升的经济环境和政策环境。但是由于现在房地产的投资增幅下降和开工、竣工绝对量的减少，中长期中国商品房房价反弹的动能依然明显存在。

For the current macro economic situation and real estate regulation of the relationship，《report》Think is important to grasp the six problems。One is the second quarter and the whole of the first half，40 key city real estate market buoyancy，Lead in national market。40 key city real estate dynamic trend，Is the national real estate dynamic to leader and vane；2 it is the current people in our country to this macro economic downturn of the causes and solutions of the problems，In recognition do not accord。So the control policy implement consistent，Control policy effect is not sure，Market prospect is expected；3 it is China's real estate market information sometimes is chaotic，Even contradict each other，Although these information is true。The real estate market outlook depends directly on the control policy executive power and macro economic development situation；Three of the current real estate is the main obstacle to control policy execution，Consumer is not，Is not real estate enterprise，Of course they also exist don't understand and resisting，But in more than six hundred city in China and more than two thousand at the county level and the municipal government；Four core interests in China is not as generalization，Real estate policy control the critical period also can't long-term change，No long-term employment。And now say for policy control the critical period，As call policy control game period；Six is in“限购”The strict implementation of the environment，In the near future are not real estate investment there、sales、Sales and home prices to rise sharply economic environment and the policy environment。But because of the real estate investment growth now drop and commenced、Completion of the absolute value is reduced，Long-term China commodity house prices the bounce of the kinetic energy is still obvious。

　　链接>>

link>>

　　新青年"网上购房"渐成气候

New youth"Online purchase"certailnly

　　【记者陆昀北京报道】腾讯网房产频道数据研究中心日前发布的《2012年第二季度新青年置业报告》显示，网上购房已被大众广泛接受，市场潜力巨大，但这也要求行业约束机制需逐步完善。

【Reporter LiuYun reports from Beijing】By real estate channel data center to released《The second quarter of 2012 new youth home buyers report》shows，Online purchase has been public acceptance，Market potential is tremendous，But it also requires industry should be gradually improved constraint mechanism。

　　《报告》称，目前正有越来越多的置业者选择在网上交易房产，“买房网络化”呼之欲出。在本次新青年置业数据调查过程中，有76%的购房人有购房意愿，对于网上购房也持相对乐观态度。

《report》says，At present there are more and more home buyers choose in the online trading house property，“Network to buy a house”Be vividly portrayed。In this new youth real estate data in the process of investigation，76% of the person that buy a house has to buy，For online purchase also have relatively optimistic attitude。

　　房地产电商平台因信息立体化、渠道扁平化，营销成本较低，也有利于房产信息的公开、透明和传播。相比普通的网上卖房，线上团购更具优势。研究数据表明，48.26%被调查人最为关注团购模式，并认为房地产电子商务将会成为主流。

Real estate electric business platform for information three-dimensional、Channel flat，Marketing cost is low，But also to the real estate information public、Transparent and spread。Compared to common online the current market，Online group buying more advantages。Data showed that，48.26% of those surveyed the most attention bulk mode，And that real estate e-commerce will become mainstream。

　　调查数据显示，53%的购房人表示如果可能，将尝试在网上购房。但由于房产交易流程复杂、周期长，房产电子商务交易往往都需要涉及线上线下两端。而作为普通大众最为重要的商品交易，置业者一般较为谨慎和敏感。《报告》也反映出，购房人对房产电子商务最大的担心集中在房源价格和信息的真实性上。这要求行业约束机制须逐步完善。电商平台须加强自身约束能力，保障信息价格真实有效，促进房产电子商务公开透明。同时，需要将线上线下服务对接做到更加优化，以提高房产电子商务成功交易率。

Survey data show，53% of the person that buy a house says if possible，Will try to buy on the net。But because the real estate deal flow complicated、Cycle is long，House property of e-commerce transactions are often involve online line ends。And as the general public most important commodities trading，Homebuyers general more prudent and sensitive。《report》Also reflects，The person that buy a house to house property e-commerce biggest worry focused on the availability and price the authenticity of information。This requires industry shall be gradually perfect constraint mechanism。Electric business platform must strengthen their own constraint ability，Security information price real and effective，Promote housing e-commerce open and transparent。At the same time，Need to online service docking do offline more optimization，In order to improve the success rate of e-commerce transactions property。