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局部回暖难挡楼市整体低迷--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-07

  “4.42万元/平方米。”这是在经历了10次网上报价、46轮现场竞价以及300多轮配建回购房面积竞争后,昨天(10日)北京海淀万柳地块出让的楼面地价,也再次刷新了北京单价地王的纪录。

“44200 yuan/square metre。”This is after 10 times quotes online、46 round the scene and several rounds of bidding PeiJian back to the area that buy 300 after the competition,yesterday(10,)Beijing haidian wanliu plot of the assignment of floor price,Also renewed the unit price of Beijing star record。

  北京新地王的诞生,在目前楼市回暖的当下,是否又会成为市场的一注强心剂呢?业内人士分析认为,市场对此过度解读可能会影响购房者恐慌性入市,对楼市将全面反弹的担忧是没有必要的,下半年楼市整体仍将供大于求。

Beijing new royal birth,In the present market warms up right now,If there was a note of the market will become a boost?Analysis of the personage inside course of thought,The market excessive reading may affect the person that buy a house market panic,About the housing will be comprehensive rebound of the concern is not necessary,The second half of the overall housing market will supply。

  实际上,在此之前,从各部委到中央层面,也都纷纷表态,强调坚定不移做好调控工作,并将继续推进相关调控政策的深入实施。

In fact,Before this,From ministries to the central level,All lined up,Emphasize firm control work well,And will continue to push related regulation policy further implementation。

  局部回暖难改寒冬格局

Local warmer winter cannot change pattern

  在当天万柳地块的拍卖现场,吸引了包括中化方兴、龙湖地产、中冶、招商局、中建九龙仓、华侨城、万科、中赫置地等十多家开发商。但民企中赫置地以26.3亿元的最高上限价格、配建16400平方米回购房的条件力压群雄,这一价格折合楼面价约4.42万元/平方米。

On the day of the auction site wanliu plot,Attracted including sinochem FangXing、Longhu real estate、ZhongYe、China merchants、Zhongjian Kowloon warehouse、oct、vanke、In a dozen trading Hector developers。But in the corporation with 2.63 billion yuan trading Hector limit price、PeiJian 16400 square meters back to buying pressure conditions force league,The price or floor price of about 44200 yuan/square metre。

  对此,北京中原市场研究部总监张大伟表示,北京土地市场的高溢价还是个别现象,而且大部分是一些非住宅类的小地块,市场对此过度解读可能会影响购房者恐慌性入市,而实际上,虽然房价已经止跌,但大涨的可能性依然很小,购房者还是应该保持理性。

this,Beijing central plains market research department director ZhangDaWei said,Beijing land market high premium or individual phenomenon,And most of those were some kind of small plot as regards,The market excessive reading may affect the person that buy a house market panic,And in fact,Although house prices have reason,But the possibility of rose are still small,The person that buy a house or should be rational。

  事实上,自6月以来,冷清的楼市开始出现回暖迹象。中国房地产指数系统的调查数据显示,2012年6月,全国100个城市(新建)住宅平均价格为8688元/平方米,环比5月上涨0.05%,结束自2011年9月以来的连续9个月环比下跌态势。“在货币政策微调的背景下,购房者买房意愿逐渐加强,主要城市成交量3月以来持续稳步回升,多数城市较去年同期有一定增长,部分楼盘在获得较好销售业绩后开始取消折扣甚至略微调高价格。”

In fact,Since June,Cold in the housing market began to appear warmer signs。China real estate index system of survey data show,June 2012,The country's 100 city(new)Residential average price for 8688 yuan/square metre,November 5 month rose 0.05%,End since September 2011 nine consecutive drop y/y trend。“In the monetary policy under the background of fine-tuning,The person that buy a house to buy a house will gradually strengthened,Since march, the volume of major cities steadily to bounce back,Most of the city a certain growth compared to the same period last year,Part of the building in obtain good sales performance to cancel the discount even slightly fine-tuning high price。”

  “对楼市将全面反弹的担忧是没有必要的,6月份出现的恐慌性购房情绪更多的是由于人为因素诱导而产生的,没有持续性。”伟业我爱我家(博客,微博)集团副总裁胡景晖分析指出,下半年,虽然全国各地方政府对楼市政策的微调难以避免,但是楼市宏观调控的大原则不会改变;下半年购房需求总量将逐步萎缩,楼市整体供大于求的买方市场格局不会改变。

“About the housing will be comprehensive rebound of the concern is not necessary,There's panic in June that buy a house is more emotions from human factors inducing and of generation,No permanent。”Cause I love my family(blog,Micro bo)The vice President HuJingHui group pointed out,The second half,Although the national governments about the housing policy to avoid the fine-tuning,But housing of macroeconomic control big principle will not change;The second half of the total pent-up demand will be gradually shrinking,The buyer's market supply market overall pattern will not change。

  政策高压态势不变

Policy high pressure situation remains the same

  在市场发生变化的前后,地方也在频频试探调控政策的松紧。

In the market changed before and after the,Place also frequently test in making the control policy。

  根据中国指数研究院的统计,上半年共有30多个城市微调楼市政策,鼓励合理需求。其方式包括为公积金政策松绑,或调整普通住宅标准、减税或补贴、户籍放松等方面。其中,限购城市中近一半城市对楼市政策进行了微调。

According to the statistics of Chinese index academy,There are more than 30 cities in the first half fine-tuning housing policy,Encourage reasonable requirement。The way the public accumulation fund policy easing including,Or adjust the average house standards、Tax cuts or subsidies、Census register relax, etc。Among them,限购 city nearly half city in about the housing policy of fine-tuning。

  尽管各地楼市微调不断,但在整个市场环境仍然笼罩在调控持续从严的氛围中,涉及限价、限购的均被叫停。国家发改委、央行、银监会、住建部四部委相继表态,强调调控不会放松。

Despite the market continuously all fine-tuning,But in the whole market environment is still shrouded in regulation continue strict atmosphere,Involving price、The 限购 all have been stopped。The national development and reform commission、The central bank、banking、Live JianBu four ministries have comment,Emphasis on regulation would not relax。

  就在业内期待更高层面表态时。7月7日,国务院总理温家宝在江苏常州调研时强调,目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期,调控任务还很艰巨。必须坚定不移做好调控工作,把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。

In the higher level to comment。July 7,The state council premier wen jiabao stressed in jiangsu changzhou investigation,Real estate market regulation is still in critical period,Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly well control work,The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。

  上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭表示,接下来应该会以国务院办公厅或几大部委的名义,出台一个将措施进一步具化细化的文件。若出台政策,估计仍以重申和强调限购、限贷、限价(督促地方政府控制年度房价目标)为主,外加少量的新政策。在此政策背景下,下半年房价上涨趋势将被打断、缓解。

Shanghai enjoysmart real estate, vice President of the institute YangGongXu said,The next should be to the general office of the state council or the name of a few big ministries,Specify a will further refinement of the measures with documents。If the policy,Estimates to reiterate 限购 and emphasis、Limit credit、price(Urging local government control of the annual house price target)primarily,Plus a small amount of the new policy。In this policy background,The second half of the trend will be interrupted rising housing prices、ease。

  而在此前,包括住建部和国土部也已经通过实际行动,释放出调控仍从紧并将深入推进的信号,包括40个重点城市建立个人住房信息系统联网,以及从银根上遏制开发商涉嫌土地闲置及炒地行为。

But previously,Including live JianBu and homeland department has also through the action,Release control still tight and will further signal,Including 40 major cities to establish personal housing information system networking,And from now on suspected of land idle and curb developers to fry behavior。

  值得注意的是,住建部日前公布数据显示,截至6月底,城镇保障性安居工程已开工470万套,开工率为63%,基本建成260万套,完成投资507亿元。

Note the,Live JianBu released data shows,By the end of June,Affordable towns living construction started 4.7 million sets,Starts to 63%,Basically completed 2.6 million sets,Completed investment of 50.7 billion yuan。

  张大伟分析称,按照年内已开工保障房470万套计算,若每套面积平均为60平方米,就达到2.8亿平方米,占到统计局公布的今年前5月全国新开工住宅5.38亿平方米的一半左右。

ZhangDaWei analysis says,According to the years has commenced security room 4.7 million sets of calculation,If each area of an average of 60 square metre,About 280 million square meters,Account for bureau of the first five months of this year 538 million square meters of housing construction starts about half。

  业内指出,保障房的大量入市,也会对商品房房价产生抑制影响,这对于稳定房地产市场调控政策,巩固调控成果,促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展都有很大的作用。

The points out that,Guarantee a lot of room market,For commodity house prices have inhibition effect,The real estate market for stability control policy,Consolidate control results,To promote the healthy development of real estate market long-term stable have very big effect。



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