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谢国忠:房价会逐年下跌 一直跌掉80%--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-09

  7月31日,一直“唱衰”中国房地产的独立经济学家谢国忠表示,仍然继续坚持自己的观点,认为当下内地房地产泡沫化严重,手中有空房应尽快出掉。对于泡沫破裂的具体时间,谢国忠称“房价并不会一下子崩盘,而是会像股市一样,每年掉7%,掉20年,一直跌掉80%。”

July 31,,Has been“bad-mouthing”China real estate's independent economists xie said,Still continue to insist on your point of view,Think in real estate in the serious turning into a bubble-and then,Hands should have rooms available out off as soon as possible。The specific time for the bubble burst,Xie said“House prices will not suddenly collapse,But like the stock market,Every year 7% off,Off 20 years,Always fall 80%。”

  对于日前在厦门提出的“手中有空房买上卖掉”的观点,谢国忠解释称,现在主要是把空房子问题解决了,买房投资的道理非常简单,当房子的回报率超过5%的时候才可以买入投资,如果是空房子的话,千万不能买。谢国忠认为“当前房子的供应变多,而内地的出生率一直很低,最终房子将会像电冰箱一样,价格越来越低。”

For a proposed in xiamen“There is a room available for hand buy sold”Point of view,Explanation says Andy xie,,Now basically is the empty house solve the problem,Buy the truth of the investment is very simple,When the rate of return on a house more than 5% of the time just can buy investment,If is empty house words,Can't buy。Xie think“The current house supply to grow,And the mainland has been very low birth rates,Final house will be like refrigerators,More and more low price。”

  今年5月份以来,内地多个城市的房地产市场开始回暖,一些城市甚至出现“抢房”的景象。对于这种情况,谢国忠说,“今年五月份以来,房地产有一点热起来,去年我写文章的时候就料到这个,房价第一波下来之后,后面会有一个反弹。”屡次预测房地产泡沫破裂具体时间失败的谢国忠此次声称,内地房价的破灭将会是一个长期的过程,将如同股市下跌一样,一直跌掉80%。

In may this year since,The mainland cities began to return to the real estate market,Some cities and even appear“Rob room”scene。To this kind of circumstance,Xie said,“Since in May this year,Real estate is a little warm up,Last year I write a composition is expected that this,After the first wave of house prices down,There will be a rebound。”He predicted a real estate bubble of the specific time failures xie said,The mainland the bursting of the housing prices will be a long process,As the stock market will fall,Always fall 80%。

  据凤凰网报道,谢国忠认为,土地升值是造成近几年中国经济和房价上涨的动力,而这种升值造就的是一种虚拟的利润。在有些地方,土地价格甚至涨了一百倍。整个浙江的土地价格是英格兰的四倍,宁波郊区的土地一千两百万一亩,平均价格跟东京的价格差不多。

According to the phoenix nets reported,Xie think,Land appreciation is caused by China's economy and rising home prices in recent years of power,And this kind of appreciation is a virtual makes the profits。In some places,Land prices rose even one hundred times。The zhejiang land price is England's four times,Ningbo suburb of twelve million and one thousand mu of land,With the price of the average price Tokyo almost。

  (《证券时报》快讯中心)

(《Securities times》Dispatch center)



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