本报讯 （记者 汪晓霞） 由住建部政策研究中心与中国指数研究院联合成立的“中国房地产动态政策设计研究组”，昨日出炉《2012政策评估报告》。该报告对今年初的两项预测数据作出了修正，一是将商品房均价从年初预测的下降4-6%修正为上涨2%；二是将商品房新开工面积由年初预测的上升7-10%修正为下降2%。

Report from our correspondent （Reporter WangXiaoXia） By living JianBu policy research center and the China index to set up a joint research institute“China real estate dynamic policy design research team”，From yesterday《2012 policy assessment report》。The report earlier this year to two forecast data made fixed，One is to put the commodity house since the beginning of the decline of the average forecast 4-6% correction for rose 2%；2 be commodity house new commenced area early by 7-10% rise forecast revised to drop 2%。

　　中国指数研究院南京分院高级分析师李相兰告诉记者，政策变量对房地产市场的即时影响较大，政府政策影响市场常常成为房地产业发展中的“硬拐点”。目前，已有近40个城市对楼市政策进行微调，涉及调整普通住宅标准、公积金政策松绑、减税补贴等，这些措施的实施，促使楼市成交增速加快。1-6月，微调政策的代表性城市商品住宅成交同比平均增长40%，而未微调政策的代表性城市同比仅平均增长1.3%。尤其是6月，代表性微调城市商品住宅成交同比平均增长高达104.5%，而代表性未微调城市同比平均增长44.8%。

China index academy nanjing branch-senior analysts LiXiangLan told reporters，Policy variables on the real estate market of instant big effect，Government policies affect the market often becomes in the development of the real estate industry“Hard inflection point”。At present，Nearly 40 cities housing policy to fine-tune，Involves adjustment average house standards、Accumulation fund policy easing、Tax subsidies，The implementation of these measures，Clinch a deal to speed up the property market growth。1-June，Fine-tuning policy city commodity residential house representative clinch a deal has grown an average of 40% year-on-year，But not the city up representative fine-tuning policy only grew by an average 1.3%。Especially June，Representative fine-tuning city commodity residential house averaged 104.5% growth clinch a deal，And not representative fine-tuning city up grew by an average 44.8%。

　　同时，由于宏观经济形势变得较为复杂，信贷变化力度超出预期，房地产市场各方预期也出现一定变化。“基于此，我们对2012年全国主要指标进行了修正。”李相兰说，年初他们预测今年商品房销售面积将下降3-6%，目前预测维持不变；房地产投资额增长幅度预测为12.5-18%，目前也维持不变。但是，对商品房均价和新开工面积作出从跌到涨的修正，这是因为当前商品房价格止跌回稳，上半年商品房均价同比已上涨1%左右，而下半年市场维持现状的可能性极大，所以预测上涨为2%，同时并不排除热点城市成交量创新高后价格较大幅度上涨的可能。

At the same time，Due to the macroeconomic situation become is more complicated，Credit change efforts than expected，The real estate market appears certain changes in anticipation of all parties。“Based on this，Our main index of 2012 national revised。”LiXiangLan said，They predict early this year, sales of commercial property area will decline of 3-6%，Current forecast unchanged；Real estate investment growth forecast range from 12.5 to 18%，Now also remain unchanged。but，Average price of commodity house and new commenced area from fell to make up fixed，This is because the current commodity house prices rose in reason，In the first half year-on-year commodity house price has gone up 1%，And the second half of the current situation of the market can sustain a possibility，So forecast for a 2% rise，At the same time does not rule out a hotspot cities after the price is high, the volume of innovation of big rises in May。

　　从商品房新开工面积看，今年1-5月土地购置面积同比下降了18.7%，降幅明显；而1-6月累计商品房新开工面积同比下降7.1%。由于商品房销售面积变化领先于新开工面积变化，商品房销售面积降幅逐月收窄，下半年新开工面积单季度增速将有所回升，所以，预计2012全年同比下降2%左右。

From commodity house new commenced area look，1 this year-may land purchase area goes down 18.7%，Declined obviously；And in the first 6 months of accumulative total commodity house new commenced area 7.1% year-on-year drop。Due to the change of area of sale of commodity house ahead of the new commenced area changes，Home sales drop area month after month narrow，The second half of the new commenced area single quarter growth would have rebounded，so，Throughout the year of 2012 is about 2% year-on-year drop。

　　这份报告提出，本轮房地产调控肩负经济安全、政治民生和政府公信力等重任，因此调控方向必须要长期坚持。但是，抑制投资投机的手段要优化，应多采用经济手段，如房产税、加强个人住房信息系统建设等。保护合理住房需求的手段亦需优化，对于刚性需求的鼓励支持仅仅依靠商业银行是不够的，应适时发展政策性住房金融，通过金融创新支持自住性合理购房，促进房地产市场健康发展。

The report advances the，This real estate regulation has economic security、The livelihood of the people and the government credibility and political task，So regulation must be direction insist for a long time。but，Inhibition of speculative investment means should be optimized，Should be used more economic methods，Such as real estate taxes、Strengthen individual housing information system construction, etc。Reasonable means of housing needs protection is required to optimization，For the demand of the rigid encourage support depend only on commercial Banks are not enough，Need to have in development policy housing finance，Through the financial innovation support from live sex reasonable purchase，To promote the healthy development of the real estate market。

　　报告还说，房地产调控的重要任务在于减少房地产市场波动。近期信贷放松和各地调控政策微调，对购房者和房地产企业的预期产生了一定的影响。“在坚持调控不放松的总基调下，稳定市场预期，引导购房者和房企对未来房价的合理预判，是政策调控的重要任务。”

The report also said，Real estate is an important task to reduce regulation of the real estate market fluctuations。The recent credit relax and from all the control policy fine-tuning，To the person that buy a house and real estate enterprises have certain effects on the expected。“Insist on not to relax the regulation in total fundamental key，Stable market expectations，Guide the person that buy a house and room for future house prices reasonable enterprises anticipation，Is an important task of policy regulation。”