中国社会科学院财经战略研究院23日发布《中国住房发展(2012年中)报告》，认为上半年房地产市场总体上仍处在调控和预测的调控目标的区间，但近期呈现回暖偏离“软着陆”目标的趋势。报告预警半年后房价存在报复性反弹风险，建议取消对首套房的贷款优惠利率。

The Chinese academy of social sciences financial strategy research institute released 23,《China's housing development(2012 years)report》，In the first half that the real estate market in general is still in control and prediction of the control target of interval，But the recent thaw deviation present“Soft landing”Target trend。The report warning after half a year there house prices rebound reprisal risk，Suggestions to the first suite cancellation preferential interest rate loans。

　　报告称，今年上半年尽管房地产供求仍处在调控目标的区间，但住房供给后续不足，房地产存货压力持续增大，需求反弹过速，成交量已经回暖。尽管住房价格同比下降符合目标，但环比出现反弹，房价走势偏离调控目标；虽然住房金融总体增长稳定，信贷结构合理，但有资金过快增长和违约积聚的隐忧；土地市场量价齐跌过速，存在未来价格反弹的压力。

The report says，In the first half of this year though real estate supply and demand is still in control target of interval，But housing supply inadequate follow-up，Real estate stock continued pressure increase，Needs fast rebound，Volume have warmed。Despite the housing price with year-on-year drop goal，But annulus comparing rebounded，House price movements deviation control target；Although the overall growth of housing financial stability，Credit reasonable structure，But has the capital too fast growth and default accumulation of malaises；The land market price volume together by fall，The future price of existing rebound pressure。

　　“当前正值中国房地产调控的关键期，形势异常严峻与复杂，虽然总体仍处于调控目标区间，但是随着市场回暖压力加大，市场走势可能偏离调控目标。”中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长、“住房问题研究”课题组组长高培勇说。他认为，在房价调控停滞不前、经济增速放缓的背景下，当前可以操控市场的宏观手段选择范围缩窄，房地产调控将愈加艰难。

“The current when China real estate regulation of the critical period，The situation stiffer and complex，Although overall still in control target range，But along with the market warms up pressure increase，The market trends have lost control target。”The Chinese academy of social sciences financial strategy research institute President、“Housing research”Group leader GaoPeiYong said。He thinks，In house prices regulation is stagnant、Economic slowdown in the background，The current can control the market macro means narrowing choices，Real estate regulation will increasingly difficult。

　　的确，接连的两次降息，虽然不是针对房地产市场，但着实影响了市场的预期，使部分购房者对短期内房价继续下行的预期信心不足，观望需求进一步释放。甚至消失已久的排队购房现象又开始重现，“日光盘”在各地频频上演。不仅如此，6月份房价9个月后首次止跌回升，国家统计局18日公布的6月份70个大中城市房价数据显示，新房价格环比上涨的城市由此前的6个增至25个，二手房环比上涨城市数量由18个增至31个。

indeed，Successive two cuts，Although not at the real estate market，But really affect the market expectations，That part of the person that buy a house in the short term house prices continue to downlink expected lack of confidence，Wait-and-see needs further release。Disappear even already a long time of queuing phenomenon that buy a house and start again，“Th CD”Around the stage again and again。Not only that，House prices in June 9 months after the first reason to bounce back，The national bureau of statistics released in June 18, the 70 major cities house price data shows，New house price rising from the city before November 6 increased to 25，Secondhand the room annulus comparing the number of cities rising from 18 to 31。

　　中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任、“住房问题研究”课题组副组长倪鹏飞表示，上半年市场走势偏离调控目标，主要是宏观政策微调导致的预期调整与市场恐慌引起的，而不是宏观政策微调实际作用导致的，但是这一回涨的变化给下半年的调控增加了复杂性和难度。“2012上半年住房市场的形式及其变化是住房市场各方相互博弈，尤其是各方与中央调控政策博弈并动态演化的结果。”倪鹏飞对《经济参考报》记者说。

The Chinese academy of social sciences city and competitiveness of the research centre、“Housing research”Research NiPengFei deputy team leader said，In the first half the market trends, deviation control target，Main is fine-tuning the expected to macro adjustment and markets panicked，Instead of macroeconomic policy to fine-tune the actual effect，But the HuiZhang changes in the second half of the year to increase the complexity and difficulty of regulation。“The first half of 2012 the housing market and the changes in the form of housing market is game between the parties，Especially the parties and the central control policies and the result of the game the dynamic evolution。”NiPengFei to《Economic reference quote》The reporter said。

　　不仅市场预期发生变化，地方“政策微调”也在反复试探。尽管近来多个部门2个月内9次表态不放松楼市调控，但是在“稳增长”压力下，一些地方政府却按捺不住为房地产调控松绑的冲动。继河南首套房贷利率7折优惠近日被银监部门否决后，珠海又拟将住宅限购范围从主城区收缩至一条街区，但消息刚曝出4个小时即被连夜叫停。

Not only the market is expected to change，place“fine-tuning”Also in repeated test。Despite recent department 2 months more than nine times not to relax market regulation said，But in“Steady growth”pressure，Some local government is unbearable for real estate regulation of easing impulse。The first set of henan mortgage rates and a discount have recently been silver supervisor departments after the veto，Zhuhai and plans to 限购 range from the city housing contraction to street area，But the news just expose 4 hours or overnight to stop。

　　“下半年，中央的房地产调控将面临诸多复杂的矛盾。”倪鹏飞说，由于目前的房地产市场走势不是市场机制内生，而是通过行政高压手段实现，因此基础并不牢固，存在诸多不确定性，包括报复性反弹导致调控功亏一篑风险和资金断裂积聚房地产的金融风险等两大风险。

“The second half，The central control will face many of the real estate of complex contradiction。”NiPengFei said，Because of the real estate market movements is not market mechanism endogenous，But through the administrative means of high pressure，So the foundations is not strong，There are many uncertainties，Including retaliatory rebound fell to risk and capital to rupture regulation of the financial risk of real estate accumulated two great risk。