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购房:谋定而动忌恐慌--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-11

  种种迹象表明,楼市出现了恐慌性购房苗头。

All the signs are that,Housing some panic symptom that buy a house。

  据报道,在北京、深圳、杭州、南京、厦门等城市,从6月底以来接连出现“日光盘”现象,同时部分新开楼盘还出现星夜排队抢购情况,加之部分楼盘开始提价,这一切似乎都在表明,随着房价的反弹,一股恐慌性情绪在整个楼市中开始蔓延开来。

According to the report,In Beijing、shenzhen、hangzhou、nanjing、Xiamen city, etc,From the end of June for appear since“Th CD”phenomenon,And some of the new building has also appeared in line open starry snapping up,And part of the buildings started to raise prices,Everything appears to show that,With house prices rebound,A stream of panic in the property market in the mood began to spread。

  或许,购房者都在思考着这样一个问题,要不要跟进?

perhaps,Property buyers are in thinking about such a problem,Want to follow up?

  恐慌性购房再现?

Panic buys a room to reproduce?

  “你跟我实话实说,房价是不是又开始涨了?”刘先生这样向记者打听。

“You and I told the truth,House prices are going up again?”Mr. Liu to reporters about this。

  刘先生是湖南人,在上海已经打拼了十余年,随着儿子年岁渐长,现住的那套小房已经无法满足一家人居住需求,因此想要换购一套面积大一点的三房。之前担心房价下跌,所以一直在观望,但最近看到网络上都在讨论房产涨价的现象,让他开始担忧房价出现反弹。

Mr. Liu is people in hunan,Shanghai has played in the 10 years,Along with the son years grew,Now lives the set of little rooms can not meet the family living demand,Therefore want to change for a set of area bigger three rooms。Previous worry falling house prices,So I've been on the fence,But the latest look at the network in real estate prices are discussed the phenomenon,Let him are concerned about house prices rebounded。

  其实,担心房价上涨的并非只有刘先生一个人。近日,本刊编辑部陆续接到一些读者的咨询电话,所关心的问题无非是房价会不会再次上涨,要不要趁现在价格还未大涨之前“先下手为强”。

In fact,Worried about rising house prices is not only Mr. Liu a person。recently,This newspaper editorial department has received some of the reader's call,The concerns of house prices is nothing but will rise again,Want to now, while the price is not before surged“The first blow is half the”。

  购房者的担忧并非杞人忧天。根据国家国家统计局此前不久发布的70个大中城市房价统计数据显示:6月份,70个大中城市房价同比下降城市个数虽然继续有所增加,但环比上涨的城市个数也增加较多,比5月份增加了19个。具有标杆意义的一线城市房价出现了反弹,其中,北京、上海和广州的新建商品住宅销售价格分别上涨了0.3%、0.2%和0.2%。深圳虽然环比下降0.1%,但降幅比5月份收窄。北京、上海、广州和深圳的二手住宅销售价格分别上涨了0.2%、0.2%、0.5%和0.2%。

The person that buy a house concerns are valid。According to the national national bureau of statistics released soon after 70 major cities house prices statistics show:June,In 70 major cities year-on-year drop prices continued to increase the number of cities,But the rise in the number of city also month-on-month increased considerably,In may the increase than 19。Has the meaning of benchmarking a city house prices appeared to rebound,Among them,Beijing、Shanghai and guangzhou new commodity house prices were up 0.3%、0.2% and 0.2%。Shenzhen although annulus comparing fell 0.1%,But in May drop than narrow。Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou and shenzhen second-hand house prices were up 0.2%、0.2%、0.5% and 0.2%。

  据了解,上海的确有少数楼盘近期的开盘价略有提高,这加深了市场的恐慌情绪。如嘉定区某楼盘,在7月底新推出的房价售价已经超过了1.75万元/平方米,均价提高了300元/平方米。记者同时了解到,该楼盘周边其他的项目,已有楼盘抢先一步提过价。随着楼市行情不断好转,涨价亦悄然成为市场趋势。根据中原集团研究中心调研,尽管目前大部分新建项目涨价幅度并不大,约在5%至10%的范围内波动,但涨价项目的数量却快速增多。

According to understand,Shanghai is building a few recent opening price increases a little,This deepen market panic。If a building dish jiading district,At the end of July, the launch of new price of house prices have more than 17500 yuan/square metre,Average price raised 300 yuan/square metre。Reporters and understand,The buildings surrounding other projects,Existing buildings one-up mentioned price。With the housing market prices constantly improving,Prices also quietly become market trends。According to the research group research center,Although most of the new project the mark-up is not great,In about 5% to 10% of the range,But the number of price but fast increase project。

  记者同时了解到,由于市场回暖,加之少数人恐慌性抢购心理,导致二手房市场开始出现“坐地起价”现象。就上海市场而言,诸如七宝、大宁绿地等刚需盘比较集中的板块,卖家开始“跳价”,每次涨价幅度约5万元左右。在北京,也出现了房东提高售价的现象,而且居然还能得到买家的认可。

Reporters and understand,Since the market warms up,Together with a few people panic buying psychology,Secondhand the room began to appear in the market“swapping”phenomenon。Shanghai market terms,Such as shippo、Big green space, need to offer than just quite centralized plate,Sellers began to“Jump price”,Every time the mark-up of about 50000 yuan。In Beijing,Also appeared the landlord improve price phenomenon,And could buyers get recognized。

  

认清形势是关键 Understand the situation is the key

  对购房者来说,只有认清当前形势,才能对房价的走势有个理性的判断。

To the person that buy a house is,Only recognize the current situation,To the trend of the house prices have a rational judgment。

  从目前来看,虽然中央政府存在“稳增长”的需要,但对于楼市调控态度丝毫未变,没有放松调控的可能,因此从某种程度上来说,这意味着房价想要大幅反弹,甚至快速上涨,确实有着极大的难度。

For now,Although the central government exists“Steady growth”needs,But for property market attitude control has not changed at all,Don't relax regulation of may,So to some extent,This means that house prices to rebound sharply,Even a rapid rise in,Do have great difficulty。

  针对目前全国各地不断涌现的“地王”现象,7月19日国土部与住建部联合向地方下达紧急通知,重申政策调控不放松。两部委表示下半年要督促地方政府加快土地供应步伐,并逐步开展月度供地指导和年度考核,同时继续采取严格的出让方式防止出现高价地块。在这样一个敏感时期,政府重申调控不放松,其用意已然相当明显。

In view of the current emerging from all over the country“royal”phenomenon,July 19,, homeland department and JianBu live to place an emergency notice issued jointly,Reiterated that policy control not to relax。Two ministries said the second half of the local government should urge to speed up the pace of land supply,And gradually develop monthly for guiding and the year inspection,At the same time continue to adopt strict the form prevent high plot。In such a sensitive period,Government reiterates that regulation not to relax,Its purpose is quite obvious。

  其实,近日来,政府“喊话”楼市调控的密集程度已超过以往。7月7日温家宝总理在常州调研时表示,必须坚定不移做好调控工作,把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。国家统计局在7月13日的新闻发布会上指出,房地产调控不能放松。国土资源部部长徐绍史在7月17日表示,将继续坚持房地产调控不动摇。专家分析指出,在短短两个月时间内,国家相关部门进行了多次坚决不放松调控的表态,表明楼市调控的政策指向已经十分明确,即绝无放松调控的可能。

In fact,In recent days,The government“propaganda”Property market regulation of intensity has more than ever。On July 7, prime minister wen jiabao in changzhou research said,Must unswervingly well control work,The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。The national bureau of statistics on 13 July news conference said,Real estate regulation can't relax。The ministry of land and resources minister XuShao history in July 17 said,Will continue to adhere to the real estate regulation not be moved。Expert analysis points out that,In just two months time,National related department has carried on many times the resolute don't relax regulation statement,That points to the property market regulation policy has been very clear,That is no relaxation regulation of may。

  表 近日来国家相关部委重申调控情况一览

Table in recent days national related ministries reiterated that regulation condition index

  日期 部委 核心内容

The core content date ministries

  7月19日 国土资源部和住建部 要坚决防止房价反弹

July 19,, the ministry of land and resources and live JianBu are determined to prevent prices rebound

  7月17日 国土资源部 将继续坚持房地产调控不动摇

July 17, the ministry of land and resources will continue to adhere to the real estate regulation not be moved

  7月13日 国家统计局 房地产调控不能放松

July 13, national bureau of statistics real estate regulation can't relax

  7月7日 国务院 温家宝总理强调,必须坚定不移做好调控工作,把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策

July 7, the state council premier wen jiabao stressed,Must unswervingly well control work,The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy

  6月18日 住建部 坚定不移落实房地产调控各项政策措施,将积极配合金融部门,继续严格执行好差别化住房信贷政策

June 18, JianBu unswervingly implement the real estate regulation live various policy measures,Will cooperate with the financial department,Continue to strictly carry out good differentiation housing credit policy

  6月14日 中国人民银行央行特急文件规定首套房贷款7折利率系市场炒作

June 14, the people's bank of China central bank documents physical first suite loan 7 fold is hype market interest rates

  6月14日 银监会降低了个人住房抵押贷款的风险权重说法系误解

June 14, banking regulatory commission (CBRC) reduce the individual housing mortgage risk weight said law misunderstanding

  6月12日 发改委地产松绑或是救市的第二张牌的报道系捏造

June 12,, the national development and reform commission or save the city real estate easing the second domino's report is fabricated

  注:根据公开资料整理

note:Based on public data

 

 谋定而动心不慌 Counsel and mind don't be panic

  买房是一项长期规划,因此购房者要做到提前规划,谋定而动。

Buy a house is a long-term plan,So the person that buy a house to do plan ahead,Counsel and move。

  这一轮楼市回暖,其主要原因主要是,开发商坚持采取以价换量策略,致使压抑了近两年时间的刚需得以释放;同时,央行连续两次降息,首套房贷款优惠利率再次出现,也在一定程度上对刚需形成了刺激作用。在这几个方面因素的共同作用下,楼市出现了久违的“量价齐涨”现象。

This round of property market buoyancy,The main reason is mainly,Developers to take to price change of strategy,The depressive nearly two years of time just need to be able to release;At the same time,Central Banks cut interest rates for two times,The first suite preferential interest rate loans appear again,Also in a certain extent to just need to form the stimulation。In the several aspects of the factors under the joint action,Property market appeared long-lost“Price volume up together”phenomenon。

  对此,有业内人士分析指出,目前的情况和2008年之后的那一轮房价暴涨,政策导向、市场环境都存在着很大的区别。因此目前出现的恐慌性购买不会一直持续下去,预计到三季度末,市场就会发生变化。

this,The personage inside course of analysis,The present situation and 2008 years later the round prices soaring,Policy direction、Market environment and there are a lot of differences。So the emerging panic buying won't last forever,At the end of the third quarter is expected to,The market will change。

  其实,对于普通购房者而言,与其猜测瞬息万变的市场行情,还不如根据自身经济条件,作出理性的判断。调控的本意也是为了让上涨过快的房价“慢些走”,让过热的楼市降降温,以保证这个市场得以健康发展。预计到2020年,中国城市化率将达到60%,处于城市化高速路上的中国,对于房地产市场的需求会一直保持着旺盛态势,因此房价向好的长期趋势不变。

In fact,For the average for the person that buy a house,With the fast changing market speculation,Not according to their own economic conditions,Making a rational judgment。The original idea of the regulation is to let rising excessively in house prices“Slowly go”,Let overheating in the housing market cool the air,To ensure that the market to the healthy development。It is estimated that by 2020,China's urbanization rate will reach 60%,In high speed of urbanization on China,For real estate market demand will always kept a vigorous situation,So good long-term trends to house prices。

  那么,现阶段购房者应该怎么做?专业人士表示,应该把握好几个度。首先要做到的是择机行事,根据自身条件来选择在何时买房、买什么房?对于刚走上社会的青年人,自身积蓄不多,收入一般,在努力工作过程中不断提高收入并增加提高积蓄,是正确的选择。而对于还没有达到改善条件的换房者,也没有必要因为害怕房价上涨而仓促出手,以至于背负沉重的经济负担。

so,At present the person that buy a house should do?Professionals said,Should hold several degrees。First of all to do is act in Tibet,According to their own conditions to choose when to buy a house、What to buy room?For just step into the society of young people,Their own savings little,Income general,In the effort to improve the working process of the income and increased the savings,Is the right choice。And to improve the conditions have not reached the the move rooms,It doesn't have to be afraid of rising house prices because rush his shots,That heavily economic burden。

  其次是要量力而行。如果因为购房而降低了自己的生活品质,显然是得不偿失的。按照正常的住房消费理念,住房支出不超过收入的三分之一为最佳,因为这样的消费结构,不会因为购房而影响到正常的开支。

Second is to follow。If because buys a house and reduce their quality of life,Obviously a pyrrhic victory。According to normal housing consumption concept,The payment of housing more than one third of her income is not the best,Because the consumption structure,Not because buys a house and affect the normal spending。



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