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链家地产:6月CPI涨幅回落至2.2%,创29个月以来最低--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-11
7月9日,国家统计局发布6月居民消费价格指数:2012年6月份,全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨2.2%,环比下降0.6%。
July 9,,The national bureau of statistics released June consumer price index:June 2012,The national consumer spending rose 2.2% year-on-year in the general price level,Annulus comparing fell 0.6%。
6月CPI同比涨幅降至2.2%,创29个月以来最低 June CPI increase year-on-year drop to 2.2%,And the lowest since 29 months
6月份CPI同比涨幅为2.2%,较4月回落0.8个百分点。6月物价水平环比下降0.6%。从结构上看,有三大类消费品的物价涨幅出现回落,成为带动CPI涨幅回落的主要因素,一是食品类价格同比涨幅由6.4%回落到3.8%,二是交通和通信环比降幅由0.1%扩大到0.4%,三是烟酒及用品同比涨幅回落0.1。
CPI up in June, up 2.2%,A drop of 0.8% in April。June annulus comparing the price level dropped by 0.6%。From the structure,There are three kinds of consumer goods prices or eased back,Become a CPI increase of the main drive back factors,One is food prices by 6.4% year-on-year increase dropped to 3.8%,2 it is traffic and communication drop by 0.1% month-on-month rises to 0.4%,Three is alcohol and tobacco and supplies dropped 0.1 year-on-year increase。
链家地产市场研究部陈雪认为,6月CPI数据,是自2010年1月开始,29个月以来的最低值,环比涨幅是2010年6月以来的最低值。虽然6月6日央行宣布降息来提振经济,但当月CPI数据仍然出现涨幅加速回落的情况,表明经济下行压力比较大。在未来政策预调微调力度加大的情况下,预计下半年货币政策还会逐渐放宽,存款准备金率,和利率还会进一步下调。
House property market research ChenXue chain that,June CPI data,Is starting from 1 January 2010,29 months the lowest since,Annulus comparing or is in 2010 the lowest since June。Although the central bank announced on June 6, to cut interest rates to jumpstart the economy,But that month CPI data still appear or speed up the back,Show the economy more downward pressure。In the future policy presetters fine-tuning intensified,The second half of monetary policy will also is expected to gradually relaxed,Deposit reserve rate,And further interest rates cut。
陈雪表示,当前货币政策的放宽对房地产市场势必会产生积极的影响,但目前房地产市场的受益程度其实并不大。一方面,目前存款准备金率并未继续下调,央行7月5日重启差异化利率调整,导致银行信贷额度紧张以及盈利空间缩小,因此购房贷款优惠幅度很难随之变大。拉动购房需求的作用并不显著,并且这种情况下,多套房的贷款政策不可能松动。
ChenXue said,The current monetary policy to relax the real estate market will inevitably have positive effects,But the real estate market at present benefit degree actually not big。On the one hand,At present, the deposit reserve rate did not continue to fall,The central bank on July 5, restart differentiation interest rate adjustment,Lead to bank credit lines strain, and profit space narrow,So it is difficult to purchase loan discount rate then get big。Pull the role of pent-up demand is not significant,And in this case,Many of the loans policy impossible suite is loose。
另一方面,虽然存款利率下调,但二次降息后,正利率优势实际上更加明显。7月5日降息后,国有五大行再次将一年期存款利率上调1.08倍,至3.25%,部分中小银行上调存款利率1.1倍,至3.3%,高出当前CPI 1个百分点以上。因此以资金保值为目的消费者不会急于入市,市场投资冲动并不强烈。
On the other hand,Although deposit rate,But after the second cut interest rates,Is interest rate advantage in fact more apparent。July 5, after the cut interest rates,State-owned five line will again raise the one-year deposit rate 1.08 times,To 3.25%,Part of the small and medium-sized bank deposit interest rate 1.1 times,To 3.3%,Higher than the current CPI above 1%。So to hedge funds for the purpose of consumers not rushing to market,The market is not strong investment impulse。
上半年租金同比涨幅2.4%,6月租金涨幅扩大 Rent in the first half year-on-year or 2.4%,6 months rent or expanded
6月全国居住类价格中,住房租金同比涨幅2.9%,涨幅较上月增加0.7个百分点。环比涨幅为0.5%。上半年租金同比涨幅为2.4%。
6 month of living in the price,Housing rents rise 2.9% year-on-year,Or a 0.7% increase last month。Annulus is up 0.5%。The rent is up 2.4% in the first half year-on-year。
根据链家地产市场研究部统计,6月北京全市平均租金3540元,环比涨幅5.8%。上半年全市平均租金为3530元/套,比去年同期上涨12%,但涨幅较去年回落了5个百分点。
According to the real estate market research statistics chain home,June Beijing market average rent of 3540 yuan,Annulus comparing or 5.8%。The average rent in the first half of 3530 yuan per set,More than the same period last year rose 12%,But rose fell by 5% in a year。
链家地产市场研究部陈雪认为,今年上半年全市平均租金上涨趋势有所缓和,同时淡旺季租金波动幅度也小于去年。6月份租赁市场又再度进入成交旺季,需求增多导致租金环比上涨的幅度也开始增大。并且租金上涨的趋势会持续至三季度末。此外,随着二手房市场的回暖,业主的逐利心态也难以改变,未来很可能会有部分由售转租的业主退出租赁市场,市场供需压力仍然较大。
House property market research ChenXue chain that,In the first half of this year the average rent rise trend has eased,At the same time the subject range is also less than last year。June rental market has once again into the clinch a deal the peak season,Increased demand in the range rising rents annulus began to increase。And the rent of the trend will continue to rise at the end of the third quarter。In addition,With the housing market of buoyancy,The owner of the profit can also be difficult to change the mentality,The future will likely be sold by the owner of sublet from rental market,The market supply and demand is still greater pressure。
陈雪表示,虽然目前租金上涨压力仍然比较突出,但进入10月份以后租赁市场进入全年的低谷,租金均会有所回落。根据链家地产市场研究部统计,2010年和2011年全年累计涨幅分别为19%、11%,按照上半年租金涨幅明显回落的趋势看,全年租金涨幅有望在10%以内。
ChenXue said,Although at present the rent upward pressure is still more outstanding,But to October after the rental market into low throughout the year,Rents are easing。According to the real estate market research statistics chain home,2010 years and 2011 years of annual accumulative total or were 19%、11%,According to the apparent rise in the first half of the trend,Annual rent or is expected to within 10%。
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