发自《投资快报》 中证期货戴宏浩

from《Investment express》 Has DaiHongHao futures

　　受外围股市大跌影响，沪深两市昨日双双低开，盘中沪指一度跌破2132点钻石底，最低报2131.01点，创股指三年来新低。随后，两市在券商、地产等板块的发力上攻之下企稳反弹，沪指最高攀升至2158.95点，期指主力合约IF1208更是一度冲过2400点整数大关。可惜后继乏力，短暂冲高之后指数相继走低，终盘期指IF1208亦重回2400之下，以2382.4报收，涨2.6，总持仓较上一交易日小幅萎缩409手。

Outside the stock market crashes by influence，Shenzhen city both low open two yesterday，Pan HuZhi once below 2132 points at the end of the diamond，The lowest quote 2131.01 points，And three year low stock index。then，Two city in brokers、Real estate sectors such as hair under attack on force stabilising rebound，Highest HuZhi climbed to 2158.95 points，Refers to the main IF1208 contract period is once rushed to 2400 point integer mark。But subsequent fatigue，After a short blunt high index have lower，ZhongPan period IF1208 back under 2400 also means，With 2382.4 a barrel，Up 2.6，Always a previous day open a small atrophy 409 hands。

　　对于昨日的护底行情，房地产居功至伟。在短暂低开之后，房地产板块表现就异乎强劲，全天维持高位横盘。笔者认为这和南京房产新政不无关系，其新政明确提出：首次购房和保障房将获更大支持力度，入选“321”计划的人才视同南京户籍，并将给予购房补贴。而此前几日，房地产正处下跌重灾区，技术上存在修复要求，昨日恰逢“利好”资金借势炒作一把也在情理之中。

For the bottom of the market yesterday，Real estate triumphant。In short after a lower price，The real estate sector performance is exceptionally strong，Maintain all high sideways。The author thinks that the New Deal and nanjing real estate was related，Put forward the New Deal：First purchase and guarantee room will receive more support，in“321”The personnel shall be deemed as nanjing census register plan，And will give purchase subsidies。And the days，Real estate coming down the worst-hit areas，The technology exists to repair requirements，At yesterday“good”Capital one a hype taking advantage in reason。

　　房地产真能单刀救主吗？首先从政策层面来看，中央对房地产的态度并未放松，就是此次南京房产新政也充满微妙之处，相关官员作客电视演播室，明确表示“松绑”系媒体误读，此中意味值得我们三思。再从银行板块表现来看，不同于房地产还可以借助所谓利好刺激快速回暖，银行业的回暖更加注重实体经济的复苏，而迄今，中国经济前行之路步步坎坷，令人难以乐观。

Real estate really can even save the Lord？First from a policy level，Central to the real estate attitude not relax，Is this nanjing real estate the subtleties of New Deal also is full，Officials visit to the studio，Made it clear that“easing”Misreading of media，This means that we think is in。Again from the bank sector performance and see，Different from the real estate also can use the so-called good stimulate rapid thaw，Banking of buoyancy pay more attention to the recovery of the economy，And so far，China's economy to advance bumpy road at every step，Hard to optimistic。

　　再来说说笔者最为关注的资金问题。自7月19日短暂放量之后，近两日成交量再归沉寂，主力资金始终没有入市的迹象。资金紧张若此，面对停发新股的民间呼声，管理层却始终表态市场低迷无关新股发行，人心之散很难靠降低若干手续费就能达到聚拢的目的。

Again for the author of the most attention said money problems。Since July 19 short after rare，Nearly two days to be silent volume，Main capital has not signs of entry。If the funds，Facing new calls to stop hair folk，Management has always takes ipo market downturn has nothing to do，It is difficult to reduce the public scattered on several charges to be able to achieve the purpose of gathered。

　　最后从历史角度来说，不破不立历来是中国股市的一大特色。从过往经验来看，很少在略破前低就企稳成功的例子。

From the historical point of view for last，Nothing down, nothing up has always been one of the features of China's stock market。From past experience，Rarely in the low on the slightly before stabilising examples of success。

　　综合来看，基本面、成交量、人气、历史，目前的股指都不存在转势的条件。大盘面临前低，借助抄底性游资的突击会有所反复，但再创新低在所难免，只在时间问题。我们更要关注的是破底之后，成交量是否能有效放出。只要有效放量，哪怕突破前低，对现在的大盘都会是件较有意义的事情。

Comprehensive to see，fundamentals、volume、popularity、history，The current stock index don't exist reverse conditions。Grail before facing low，With the copy of the assault hot money will have repeatedly，But reached a new low of unavoidable，Only in a matter of time。We are more focused on the bottom is after，Volume will effectively release。As long as effective peatlands，Even before the break through the low，For now the grail will is a more meaningful。

持仓分析：空头大佬维持高压不放松 Position analysis：Two short maintain high pressure not to relax

　　在1208合约上，中证、国泰君安牢牢占据空头榜前二席，空方前五的持仓相比多方阵营集中度明显要略高一筹。值得我们注意的是在1209合约上，多空席位较为平衡，是否显示未来下跌空间有限，值得我们加以关注。

In 1208 the contract，has、Cathay Pacific hand firmly occupies two seats short before a list，Empty party the top five compared various camps concentration obvious position are high cost。Worthy of our attention is in 1209 the contract，Empty seats more balance，That fall, whether future space，Worthy of our attention。

　　发自《投资快报》

from《Investment express》