楼市向左转、向右转？ Property market to the left、Turn right？

博鳌房地产论坛激辩今后走势 Boao real estate BBS of future trends divides

　　新华网博鳌（海南）8月11日电（“新华视点”记者宋振远、周正平、王存福）当前一些地方房价升温，楼市再次走到十字路口：中介机构鼓唇摇舌，普通居民望房兴叹，开发企业望风使舵，金融企业上下其手，中央政府态度坚定，地方政府试探频频。

Xinhua net boao（hainan）August 11,（“Xinhua viewpoint”Reporter SongZhenYuan、ZhouZhengPing、WangCunFu）Some current place heating up house prices，Go to the crossroads again property market：Intermediary institutions drum the tongue of lip，Ordinary people were left feeling useless at room，Ambitious development enterprise that rudder，Financial enterprise ShangXiaJiShou，The central government a firm attitude，The local government frequently test。

　　在这敏感时期，全国房地产界的千人大会博鳌房地产论坛8日至11日在此间举行。来自住建部、中国房地产协会和国内知名房企的代表人物，围绕房价走势、调控走向、制度改革等一系列焦点问题，进行了激烈交锋，不少观点引人深思。

In this sensitive time，The national real estate to the community of one thousand people meeting boao real estate BBS 8 to 11, held in Lisbon。Live from JianBu、China real estate association and domestic famous room is the representative figure of enterprises，Around the house price movements、Regulation to、System reform and a series of focus，The intense battle，Many view thought-provoking。

房价：新一轮上涨周期正打开？ House prices：A new round of rising cycle is open？

　　［焦点］今年初，房地产界还在讨论“如何过冬”和“冬天多长”，想不到楼市连续出现“热六月”“火七月”等旺销现象，新一轮房价上涨周期真的已经来临？

[focus] earlier this year，The real estate industry is still under discussion“How to spend the winter”and“How long the winter”，Not present continuously property market“Hot June”“Fire July”Flourishing sold phenomenon such as，A new round of rising house prices cycle really has come？

　　［财政部财政科学研究所所长贾康］我感觉已经看得比较清楚：今年下半年在银根放松和“稳增长”的政策环境之下，房地产的回暖还会持续。

[the Treasury financial science research institute jia kang] I feel they have to see more clearly：Monetary easing and in the second half of this year“Steady growth”Under the policy environment，Real estate of buoyancy to persist。

　　［华远地产(600743,股吧)股份有限公司董事长任志强］回顾房地产行业发展的各个阶段，凡是土地供给低增长的情况出现，一定会形成后期的房价高增长。2012年房地产行业土地供给和库存仍然是负增长，这将形成下一轮房价的高增长。2013年3月份以后，房价可能会产生上涨性行情。

[huayuan real estate(600743,Shares it)Shares of President of limited company of real estate industry RenZhiJiang] review at various stages of development，All land supply of low growth situation，Will form the late house prices high growth。In 2012, the real estate industry land supply and inventory is still negative growth，This will form the next round of the price of the house high growth。In March 2013 after，House prices rising prices may have sex。

　　［中国房地产协会副会长朱中一］5月份以来房价放量上升主要原因有两个：一是万科、恒大等龙头企业首先“以价换量”，引发行业降价促销，刺激刚性需求入市；二是6月份后政策基本面转向“稳增长”，降息等刺激手段相继出台，改变了房地产行业的一些预期。但要看到楼市成交数量和价格等指标是缓慢环比上升的，而新增投资、新开工面积、新购土地，同比还是下降的，所以，楼市回暖的基础并不牢靠。

[China real estate association and vice President of a] in May prices rise since tumbled mainly for two reasons：One is that vanke、Evergrande etc leading enterprise first“To change the price of”，Cause industry depreciate sales promotion，Stimulate rigid demand market；2 it is June policy fundamentals after the steering“Steady growth”，The stimulation such as means to cut interest rates have issued，The real estate industry to change some of the expected。But to see clinch a deal the quantity and the price the market index is slowly rising annulus，And new investment、New commenced area、New purchase land，Up or down，so，Property market warms up in the foundation is not stable。

　　［北京首创置业股份有限公司董事长刘晓光］未来几个月的市场应该是趋于稳定的，而不是一个真正大拐点的出现，企业要准备度过这一段比较艰难的时刻。

[Beijing real estate Co., LTD is the first President LiuXiaoGuang] in the next few months is the market should be stable，Not a real big inflection point to appear，Enterprise to get through this a more difficult time。

　　［远洋地产控股有限公司副总裁陈润福］本轮调控进行了两年多，这个时候，供方、需方都在适应新的市场规则。供方在调整产品结构，满足更多的首套需求和改善性购房需求；需方也在适应新形势，调整心态达成交易。这是一个“市场再平衡”的过程，所以房价不会出现类似于2009年那样反转式的强烈增长，总体上将相对平稳。

[ocean real estate holdings Co., LTD, vice President ChenRunFu] this regulation for two years，This time，The supplier、The buyer is adapt to the new market rules。The supplier in the adjustment of product structure，The first set of meet more demand and improve the pent-up demand sex；The buyer is also in adapt to the new situation，Adjust the deal。This is a“Market and then balance”process，So prices do not appear similar in 2009 that the strong growth in reverse，The overall general relatively quiet。

调控：“稳增长”前提下何去何从 regulation：“Steady growth”Premise what to do

　　［焦点］宏观政策转向“稳增长”后，为楼市“松绑”助推经济增长的呼声不断，楼市调控何去何从面临艰难抉择。

[focus] macro policy change“Steady growth”after，For the property market“easing”Boost economic growth of the noise of Shouting continuously，Property market regulation facing tough choices where。

　　［金地（集团）股份有限公司总裁黄俊灿］今年上半年GDP降下来后，可以看到地方政府在不时地做一些小动作，希望在土地收入减少的情况下，对房地产行业有一些扶持。

[gold（group）A joint stock limited company President HuangJunCan] in the first half of this year GDP after came down，Can see from time to time in local government do some little tricks，Hope in the land income decrease，On the real estate industry has some support。

　　［任志强］2003年以后房地产调控有一个现象：经济热的时候，就会把房地产往下压一压；经济冷的时候就把房地产业往上拉一拉。现在经济形势不太乐观，房地产业又有了机会。

[RenZhiJiang] 2003 years later the real estate regulation a phenomenon：The heat of the economy，The real estate down a pressure；Economic cold the real estate industry pulled up a pull。Now the economic situation is not too optimistic，The real estate industry and have the chance。

　　［国民经济研究所所长樊纲］我第一次参加博鳌房地产论坛就说了一句话，房地产商是中国最幸运的一批商人，这些年你们挣钱最多，不要国家一调控，就像怨妇一样抱怨“被抛弃”，难道要永远继续捧着吗？现在到了经济转型的时候了，尽管房地产业是支柱产业，但过度依赖就会出问题。

[the national economy of institute of structural] my first time to attend a BBS boao real estate said a word，The real estate business is China's most fortunate a group of businessmen，All these years you earn money most，Don't state a regulation，Like hatred fu complain“abandoned”，Don't always continue holding？Now in the economic transformation of the time，Although the real estate industry is pillar industry，But relying too much on problems will emerge。

　　［浙江广厦(600052,股吧)股份有限公司董事长杨玉林］我觉得作为开发商来讲，要调整好心态，积极主动地顺应国家政策的调整和调控。

[zhejiang poor(600052,Shares it)Shares of President of limited company of YangYuLin] I think as developers speaking，To adjust good state of mind，Positive to conform to the national policy adjustment and control。

　　［万科企业股份有限公司执行副总裁周卫军］从中长期看，房地产调控应该是一个常态，因为这已不是一个行业和经济的问题了，而是上升到民生和政治的问题了。正因为这样，中央最近再次强调坚持房地产调控不动摇。

[China vanke Co., LTD. Executive vice President ZhouWeiJun] from the long run，Real estate regulation should be a normal，Because this is not a industry and economic problems，But rose to the livelihood of the people and the political problems。Because of that，The central recently again insist on real estate regulation not be moved。

　　［朱中一］当前，既要防止经济进一步下滑，又要坚持房地产调控不放松，确实是一个难题。而且，在房地产调控中，中央和地方站的角度不一样，存在“土地财政”等制度设计问题。一些地方可能借口“稳增长”而放松调控，但中央政府今年把增长目标调低为7·5%，已体现了坚持楼市调控、促进经济转型的决心。我相信，随着国家加大监督检查和约谈问责等措施，房地产市场总体上会朝着预期方向发展。

[zhu a] the current，Not only must prevent the economy from falling further，But also to adhere to the real estate regulation not to relax，Really is a problem。and，In real estate in the regulation，The point of view of the central and local station，exist“Land financial”System design problem。Some places may be an excuse“Steady growth”And relax regulation，But this year the central government to lower growth target for 7 was 5%，Already reflected adhere to the property market regulation、Promote the economic transformation of the determination。I believe that，As countries strengthen supervision inspection and questioning accountability and other measures，The real estate market will toward the development direction of overall expected。

前瞻：不能错失制度建设“机遇期”？ prospectie：Cannot miss system construction“Opportunity time”？

　　〔焦点〕一收就跌，一放就涨楼市屡现“弹簧效应”，根源仍然是行业制度建设的缺失。有人认为本轮楼市“最严调控”已近三年，但行业性改革推进缓慢，可能会错失房地产制度建设良机，怎么办？

[a] the focus will fall，A put rose property market is repeatedly“Spring effect”，Root is still the lack of the construction industry system。Some people think that this property market“The most strict regulation”Has nearly three years，But industry reform slowly，Real estate system construction may miss the good opportunity，do？

　　［杨玉林］下一步的国家房地产政策调整应该是多元化的、系统的、制度化的。这样无论对开发商还是消费者，都会有一个较为稳定的预期。作为开发商，需要集中精力顺应国家的制度建设，根据需求来进行市场定位和布局。

[YangYuLin] the next national real estate policy adjustments should be diversified、system、institutionalized。So whether the developers and consumers，There will be a relatively stable and expectations。As a developer，Need to focus on to the system construction of the country，According to the demand for market orientation and layout。

　　［樊纲］目前楼市调控的目的、对象已经明确，即“抑制投资性住房需求，保证消费性住房需求的供给”。为此，房地产调控的当务之急不是每天重复要抑制房价，而是要尽快用经济手段替换下行政手段，用制度替换下政策。具体地说，就是尽快用税收、利率、信贷等政策来替换下类似“限购”这样的政策，否则不利于楼市持续健康发展，也不利于宏观经济平稳增长。

[structural] at present market regulation purpose、Object has been made clear，namely“Restrain the investment housing needs，Ensure the supply of housing needs of consumer spending”。For this，Regulation of the real estate is not repeat it every day to suppress housing prices，But as soon as possible with economic means to replace the administrative means，With the system under the replacement policy。To be specific，Is with tax as soon as possible、Interest rates、Credit policy under similar to replace“限购”Such policies，Otherwise against property market healthy and continual development，Also was disadvantageous to the macro economic growth。

　　［中国城乡建设经济研究所所长陈淮］短期调控是必要的，但从长期看，用制度化办法取代临时性的行政措施，这样才符合客观发展规律。

[China's urban and rural construction and economic research institute of council] short-term regulation is necessary，But in the long run，Use to replace the institutionalization of temporary administrative measures，So just accord with the objective law of development。

　　所谓长效的制度建设应包括四个方面：一是多盖房子，快盖房子，而不是少盖、不盖房子；二是调整城市结构，都住在北京、上海、广州，什么样的政策都解决不了房价问题，大中小城市要协调发展；三是调整中央政府和地方政府的关系，又要让马儿跑，又要马儿不吃草是行不通的，加快与地方不动产等关联的税收制度改革，包括房产税制度改革；四是调整社会收入分配结构，如此调整才能最终解决房价与收入比问题。

The system construction of the so-called long-term should include four aspects：One is building a house，Fast building a house，Rather than less cover、Don't build a house；Two is to adjust the structure of the city，Lived in Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou，What kind of policy not solve problems house prices，Medium cities, to coordinate development；Three is to adjust the central government and local government relations，And let the horse running，And to the horse eat is it won't work，Speed up with local real estate association of tax system reform，Including housing property tax system reform；Four is to adjust social income distribution structure，So adjustment to finally solve the house price and income more than the problem。