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年中策:调控再次摸底楼市 苏州下半年维稳是趋势--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-12

  

365地产家居网 苏州消息 365 real estate home JuWang suzhou news

  2012年转眼已过半,历尽调控、政策洗礼下的苏州楼市经历了由“极寒”到“回暖”的转变,从1、2月份房地产市场的迷茫到“金三银四”的小幅攀升,从“红五月”的爆发到6月份的全面开花,苏州上半年楼市可谓是跌宕起伏,宛如坐上了“过山车”一般。在7月26日由365地产家居网主办的“年中?策,把脉苏州下半年楼市发展趋势高峰论坛”上,网尚研究机构总经理、江苏省房地产研究所所长李智针对苏州市客户需求结构的变化,预测2012年苏州下半年楼市走向的研究报告引起与会地产大鳄的热议。

In 2012, more than half had gone,Experienced the regulation、Policy of suzhou baptism experience from property market“Extremely cold”to“warmed”change,From 1、The real estate market in February to the confusion“Four establishments”Budged the,from“Red may”The outbreak in June to the overall blossom,In the first half it's property market suzhou ups and downs,Like sits at the“Roller coaster”general。On July 26, 365 JuWang house property by the host“years?strategy,The second half of the development trend of suzhou market pulse peak BBS”on,Nets is general manager of research institutions、Jiangsu province of institute of real estate in customer demand structure of suzhou city li zhi of change,The second half of 2012, suzhou prediction to the property market research report by the big alligator property of hot debate。

  

上半年调控不放松 苏州住宅商业冰火两重天 Don't relax regulation in the first half of suzhou residential business between sultry

  苏州楼市上半年成交58909套,比去年上半年涨幅大概达到196.88%。而另外一个数据,非住宅成交4391套。从2011年1月份到2012年6月份苏州住宅以及非住宅月度成交变化情况可以发现,住宅整体是呈现了走高的趋势,非住宅总体下挫,住宅和非住宅的成交呈现冰火两重天的格局。

Suzhou in the first half of 58909 market clinch a deal,More than half of last year or about 196.88%。And the other a data,As regards to clinch a deal of 4391。From January 2011 to June 2012 suzhou house and as regards monthly changes can find clinch a deal,Residential whole is presented to high trend,As regards the overall fall,Residential and as regards clinch a deal the present between sultry pattern。

  365地产家居网分析师史连生在论坛中指出,今年上半年有20%的楼盘处于涨价的态势,同时有降价的楼盘27%,持平的比例在36%,上下波动的比例达到17%。其中,园区降价楼盘占比3成,吴中区达到35%,而且别墅项目在这当中占了大头。中心城区因为房源的稀缺性也处于上涨的态势。上半年度价格波动的楼盘数量,园区、吴中区占据59个项目,它的房价上下波动数是最高的,同时成交量也是最高的。从上半年商品房销售排名前十的房企中,可以看到品牌、口碑依然是促进热销热销的原因;而从商业项目的前十名排行榜,酒店式公寓成为了商业市场成交的绝对主力。

365 real estate JuWang analysts ShiLianSheng home in BBS in said,In the first half of this year 20% of the buildings in the price trend,At the same time there is 27% price cut building,The proportion of flat in 36%,17% of the fluctuates up and down。Among them,Price of estate than the 3 into,Wuzhong district reached 35%,And in this project of villa of big head。The city centre for the scarcity of homes also at the rising trend。First half of price fluctuation building number,park、Wuzhong district occupies 59 project,It's house prices fluctuate number is the highest,At the same time is also the highest volume。In the first half from home sales rank in the top ten in the room of enterprises,Can see brand、Word of mouth is still the promote the cause of sell like hot cakes sell like hot cakes;And from a commercial projects of the top 10 list,As the business market serviced apartment clinch a deal nailed down。

   江苏省房地产研究所所长李智江苏省房地产研究所所长李智 Real estate in jiangsu province, director li zhi

  有业内人士表示,在6、7月份连续两次降息,苏州楼市持续回暖,但是我们也同时看到了中央的决心和态度。从温总理在常州会议指出“调控不放松”的决心,我们也看到中央密集型的表态将近有10次,尤其是近日中央成立了楼市督查组,对16个省市进行调控的调研。中央政府在房地产的面上,决心非常大,为房地产企业带来了一些新的问题,刚刚有所回暖,现在又有这样的压力,今年上半年整个市场的趋势并不明朗,整个房地产行业还是以价换量的态势。

The personage inside course of study expresses,In the six、In July, two successive to cut interest rates,Suzhou sustained progress property market,But we also see the central determination and attitude。From prime minister wen in changzhou meeting said“Regulation not to relax”determination,We also see the central intensive comment nearly 10 times,Especially recently established the central DuZhaZu property market,16 provinces and cities to regulate the research。The central government in the face of real estate,Determination very big,For real estate enterprise bring some new problems,Has just been getting warmer,Now it has that kind of pressure,In the first half of this year the whole the trend of the market is not clear,The real estate industry or to change the price of trend。

  

调控仍将持续 苏州房价维稳呈主旋律 Regulation would continue to suzhou house prices are the main melody on d

  从苏州这个市场来看,导致苏州上半年房地产销售乃至7月份还有这么大的销售量主要原因有三个:一是宏观调控,三年来消费者购房需求累积到了一定的时候就要进行释放;二是消费者对房地产市场未来的预期,消费者也在观察未来房地产价格怎么样,未来的销售供求关系怎么样,未来可能有什么变化;第三,银行存款准备金率的下调,贷款利率的下降,整个调控当中苏州房价的波动也比较小,众多开发商纷纷以价换量,抢占市场有限客户资源。

From suzhou this market and see,In the first half to suzhou real estate sales in July and still have so big sales three main reasons:One is the macroeconomic control,Three years the pent-up demand to consumers accumulated certain of the time it released;2 the consumers of real estate market expectations of future,Consumers also observed in the future real estate prices,Future sales supply and demand,The future may have what change;The third,The bank of deposit reserve rate cut,Loan interest rates down,The regulation of the price of the house of suzhou there is less volatility,Many developers have to price in quantity,Shares of market, customer resources。

  
苏州房地产协会秘书长倪峻苏州房地产协会秘书长倪峻 Suzhou real estate association secretary-general NiJun

  在这样的情况下面,江苏省房地产研究所所长、网上研究机构总经理李智从多方面判断分析苏州2012年下半年房地产的可能情况。“首先一条还是不能回避中央宏观政策。我们知道2012年下半年最大的政治就是要保持要迎接十八大的顺利召开。这是我们国家政治生活当中最重最大的事情。所以在这样的背景下面,经济一定要稳增长,要防止各种意外事件的发生。同时也要防止房地产价格明显的反弹,以防功亏一篑。在行政上面,我们对房地产的价格上升会进一步进行一定的思量。最近已经看到中央大调查组对一些城市进行调查,实际上就是要服从最大的政治这一点出发的。”

In such a situation below,Jiangsu province of institute of real estate、General manager li zhi online research institutions from various analysis and judgement in the second half of 2012 real estate of suzhou may。“First of all a still can't avoid the central macro policy。We know that the second half of 2012 the biggest political is to keep to meet the smooth convening of the big 18。This is our national political life the biggest heaviest thing。So in this background below,Economy must want steady growth,To prevent the occurrence of all kinds of accidents。Also want to prevent real estate prices rebound,Fell in case。In the administrative above,Our prices are rising on the real estate will further perform some of the thinking。The large central investigation team has recently seen on some cities in the investigation,In fact is to obey the biggest political that point。”

  “为了稳经济、稳增长,在金融方面还有可能要出台进一步存款准备金率的下调,贷款利率也有可能进一步下调,下半年宏观调控总体应该还是比较稳定的,不会出现各种过分、意外的政策措施。主基调还是要维稳,要迎接十八大,要保增长、保稳定。”

“In order to steady economic、Steady growth,In the financial aspects may have further on the deposit reserve rate cut,Mortgage rates may also cut further,The second half of macroeconomic regulation and control the overall should or relatively stable,Won't appear all sorts of too much、Unexpected policy measures。Advocate fundamental key or d steadily,To meet the 18,To the growth、The stability。”

  “无论是南京还是苏州,我们也要看到地方政府在完成最大的政治迎接十八大召开,在保证稳经济、稳增长、保民生这一系列情况下,地方政府也会采取各种稳增长、稳市场、稳社会安定一系列措施。所以总体也会延续原先的一系列政策措施,苏州市场不会大起大落。”

“Whether the nanjing or suzhou,We also have to see in local government achieve the maximum political meet 18 meeting,In order to ensure economic stability、Steady growth、The people's livelihood this a series of cases,The local government also will take all kinds of steady growth、Steady market、A series of measures on social stability。So overall will also continue the original a series of policy measures,Suzhou market will not falling。”



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