“震荡？回归？论剑下半年楼市走向”杭州楼市半年度论坛8月2日14:00在金溪山庄隆重举行，365地产家居网特此邀请业内资深专家对调控政策、金融政策、营销策略、市场行情的分析、预判等方面的消息，为大家构画杭州楼市2012年下半年走势特征。

“concussion？regression？Among the market to the second half”Hangzhou market half-yearly BBS, 2 August 2 JinXi was held in villa，Real estate JuWang hereby invited 365 house senior experts in the industry to control policies、Financial policy、Marketing strategy、Market analysis、Anticipation, and other aspects of the news，For everyone to compose painting hangzhou property market trend in the second half of 2012 features。

每日商报房产部主任施颖在会场上发言 The daily business real estate director ShiYing at the speech每日商报房产部主任施颖在会场上发言 The daily business real estate director ShiYing at the speech

金融政策对市场双方心理刺激大 Financial policy on market psychological stimulation to both sides

下半年开发商需在市场开拓上下工夫 Developers must in the second half of the upper and lower time market development

　　我就谈一点个人小小的感受，说是今天下午房地产股大跌，很多股都跌，背后的原因有两种，一种是传言购房预售制将取消，说是这个政策可能出台了，以后房子可能不预售了。还有一个是关于深圳土地出让税收可能会改革，可能也是造成房产股下跌。

I will offer a personal little experience，This afternoon, the real estate stocks plummeted，Many stocks are down，There are two reasons behind，A is rumored to open to booking purchase system will be cancelled，Say this policy may come out，Later the house may not open to booking。And one is about shenzhen land transfer tax may reform，Also may be causing property shares fell。

　　刚才刘德科说政策太强大了你可以不去管它，但是我觉得不是这样的，其实政策对市场很敏感，因为5月份之后楼市出现了一个逆转，一个逆转很大的原因就是金融政策，一个月内两次降息，我觉得这个对开发商的心里刺激很大，并不是说真正买房的人每个月按揭可以减少多少，但是对购房者的心理冲击大，然后对开发商也是，开发商突然敏锐地感受到金融产生变化是因为大的经济形势不行了，这个也就是意味着你要救市了，即使救的不是房地产，但是贷款会把资金流到房地产当中来，我觉得下半年的政策如何走向是非常关键的，但是这一点可能在座的谁也预测不到，所以说难就是难在这个地方。

Just LiuDeKe said policy is powerful you may not to mind，But I think it is not，In fact policy on the market is very sensitive，Because after the property market in May appear a reversal，A reversal of the big reason is that financial policy，A month two cuts，I think this the developers heart very exciting，Not really a house said people every month mortgage can reduce how much，But the psychological impact of the person that buy a house，And then the developers also，Developers suddenly sensitive financial changes because of the economic situation is not big，This also means you want to save the city，Even save is not the real estate，But the cash flow to real estate loans will come of，I think in the second half of the policy how to is very important，But it may all of who can't also predicted，So difficult is difficult in this place。

　　从购房者角度来说，我觉得下半年有机会，章惠芳老师昨天是说有一些已经见底，但是还有很多板块和个别盘子可以有，像康恒悦麒美寓项目详情业主社区相册样板户型视频地图，还有临平那边也还是有机会的。

From the point of view for the person that buy a house，I think the second half have a chance，ZhangHuiFang teacher yesterday is said some have seen bottom，But there are still many plates and individual plates can have，Like KangHengYue jiaqi is beautiful house project details owner community model family photo album video map，The flat over there and also have a chance。

　　不少改善项目，现在普遍在动了，可能有的是一年都没有动作，但是现在他们会去找客户在哪里、市场在哪里，可能是比刚需困难很多倍，比如说刚需市场上走的好的，但是现在改需还是这几类，它们现在底气不足。我觉得下半年是市场开拓，开发商还是要在这些方面下大功夫，就是这些购房人在哪里，在双限的情况下需求在哪里，这个是一个精耕的方面，我们一定要擦亮眼睛来看。

Many improvement projects，Now universal in to move，May have a plenty of a year and no action，But now they'll go find customers in where、Market where，May be many times more than just need to difficult，For example just need to go on the market of the good，But now to change or the categories，They now should be。I think the second half is market development，Developers or in these respects the big time，The person that buy a house is in where，In the double under the condition of the limit demand in where，This is a fine plow aspects，We have to open your eyes and see。