本报记者 张昊

Our reporter hao

　　上海易居房地产研究院7月31日发布的《我国房地产市场供求关系研究》报告显示，2008年至今，商品房销售面积已经持续三年反超可供应面积，累积潜在的存量逐年缩小，存量潜在压力也同步减轻。

Shanghai enjoysmart real estate research institute released on July 31《China's real estate market supply and demand relations》report，Since 2008，Home sales area has been put three years to supply area，Accumulated potential stock narrow year by year，Stock potential pressure also synchronous ease。

　　易居研究院认为，今年下半年全国房地产开发企业土地购置面积跌幅将持续收窄。今年上半年，房地产开发企业土地购置面积17543万平方米，同比下降19.9%。预计这一跌幅到了年末将收窄至10%。

Enjoysmart institute think，The second half of this year the national real estate development enterprise land purchase area will continue to drop narrow。In the first half of this year，Real estate development enterprise land purchase area of 175.43 million square meters，19.9% year-on-year drop。This is expected to fall to the end of narrow from 10% to。

　　2012年上半年商品房潜在存销比（待售面积与销售面积之比）为1.7，低于2011年；从对2012年全年土地购置与商品房销售的预测值来看，预计2012年末的潜在存销比将持续下行，约为1.6。上海易居房地产研究院研究员吴晓君表示，这意味着2013-2014年商品房供应偏紧，如果需求持续释放，则房价上涨压力较大。

In the first half of 2012 commodity house with potential than pin（For sale area and the ratio of sales area）For 1.7，Less than 2011 years；From the year 2012 land purchase and sale of commodity to see the predicted，At the end of 2012 is expected to save potential than will continue to sell to the downside，About 1.6。Shanghai real estate research institute WuXiaoJun enjoysmart researcher said，This means that the 2013-2014 commodity house tight supply，If demand for release，The pressure great rising housing prices。

　　易居研究院还认为，全国商品房成交量正在筑底，下半年跌幅还将继续收窄。

Enjoysmart institute also thought，The national commodity house volume is the bottom of the building，The second half fall will continue to narrow。

　　近期多位开发商人士对中国证券报记者表示，近期成交回暖的主要原因是房价上涨预期再次出现。在限购限贷没有松动的情况下，近期成交以刚性需求为主。而刚性需求的购买力有限，加之近期中央政府多次强调调控房地产的政策不会放松，因此房价上涨的心理预期可能并不能持续。如果具备购买力的有效刚性需求消化殆尽，房价上涨预期消失，易居研究院的观点可能略显乐观。

Many developers to China's recent people stock certificate report reporters，Recent reverting to clinch a deal is the main reason of the rising house prices expected to appear。In 限购 limit credit without loosing cases，Recent rigid demands to clinch a deal。And the purchasing power of the rigid demand is limited，The central government and the recent many times that in regulating the real estate policy will not relax，So prices expected may not last。If have the purchasing power of the effective rigidity requirements digestion to danger，Rising house prices expected to disappear，Enjoysmart institute of philosophy may be slightly optimistic。