“微调引导，市场双底呈现；灵活微调，价稳巩固” “Fine-tuning guide，The double bottom present market；Flexible fine-tuning，Price stability consolidate”

　　2012年上半年广州商品住宅成交面积303.6万m2，环比去年下半年上升近20%；成交均价为13826元/m2，比去年下半年上升1%。年初市场低谷以及传统淡季影响，推货速度明显放缓，但随着市场的逐步企稳回暖，开发商推货意愿增强，成交面积由2月份25.3万逐步回升至5、6月份70万以上的高位成交。

In the first half of 2012 guangzhou clinch a deal the commodity residential house area of 3.036 million m2，The second half of last year rose nearly 20% month-on-month；The price is 13826 yuan/m2，The second half of last year than up 1%。Market lows early traditional slack and influence，Push the goods at a significantly slowed，But as the market gradually stabilising thaw，Developers push to enhance the goods，By February 253000 clinch a deal area gradually back up to 5、June 700000 high of more than a deal。

　　下半年政策微调向松，置业者心态平稳向好，预计成交回暖势头可保持。

The second half to loose fine-tuning，Home buyers are balanced up well，Clinch a deal is expected to keep the momentum in the warmer。

整体市场：局部价格下调成交走出底部 Overall market：Local clinch a deal out of the bottom down the price

　　2012年上半年商品住宅供求表现与2011年上半年同期基本持平，整体价格平稳，整体成交逐步回暖趋势明显，尤其进去5、6月以后。2012年上半年成交面积为303.6万m2，与去年上半年同期持平，但环比去年下半年上升近20%。2012年上半年成交均价为13826元/m2，与去年上半年同期相比轻微上升5%，环比去年下半年上升1%。

In the first half of 2012 the commodity residential house performance and the supply and demand in the first half of 2011 were roughly the same period，Overall prices down，The overall trend gradually obvious reverting to clinch a deal，Especially in 5、Six months later。In the first half of 2012 with an area of 3.036 million m2 clinch a deal，And in the first half of last year at the same period，But the second half of last year rose nearly 20% month-on-month。In the first half of 2012 the price for 13826 yuan/m2，And in the first half of last year, up 5% compared with the same period slight，The second half of last year, up 1% month-on-month。

　　市场走出底部，供需态势皆明显好转。年初市场低谷以及传统淡季影响，推货速度明显放缓，但随着市场的逐步企稳回暖，开发商推货意愿增强。成交面积由2月份25.3万逐步回升至5、6月份70万以上的高位成交。

Market out of the bottom，Supply and demand situation is improved obviously。Market lows early traditional slack and influence，Push the goods at a significantly slowed，But as the market gradually stabilising thaw，Developers push to enhance the goods。By February 253000 clinch a deal area gradually back up to 5、June 700000 high of more than a deal。

　　就区域成交量而言，外围降价幅度大的区域成交保持好的成交量，中心区价格坚挺，同时成交量有不同程度的上升。半年以来，番禺、南沙价格都有超过10%的下调，拉动成交，保证了良好的成交量；花都价格相对稳定，成交环比略有下降；从化因为购房入户政策的取消，成交大幅下滑。

For the region in volume，Peripheral region of cut prices keep good volume clinch a deal，Central strong price，At the same time, the volume of different levels of rising。Six months，panyu、The nansha price cut of more than 10%，Pull clinch a deal，Ensure a good trade volume；Flower all prices are relatively stable，Clinch a deal the annulus comparing declined slightly；Conghua for buys a room to join a policy of cancelled，Clinch a deal the decline。

供应预测：下半年广州住宅货量新增供应充裕 Supply forecasts：The second half of guangzhou housing cargo the new supply abundance

　　据合富辉煌集团市场研究部监测统计，预计下半年新增供应约为3.33万套，与往年相比有明显的增加，处于近年来高位，中心六区新增供应更是有明显增大，约1.52万套。其中，中心区刚需中小户型及高端供应多，外围供应则以刚需及改善户型居多。

According to $rich brilliant group market research monitoring statistics，The second half of the new supply is expected to about 33300 sets，Compared with previous years there has been a marked increase，In a high in recent years，The new supply center six district is increased obviously，About 15200 set。Among them，Central to small and medium-sized family and just more high-end supply，Peripheral supply is to just need to improve door model and the majority。

备注： note：

　　1、货量预测数据由合富辉煌集团市场研究部监测统计，主要通过实地调查楼盘的施工进度结合项目规划施工许可情况等综合统计，由于施工进度各发展商会根据市场变化及存量调整，下半年实际新增供应与按正常施工进度的预计量会有较大差异；

1、Cargo forecast data by $rich brilliant group market research monitoring statistics，Through investigation of the main building construction progress with project planning construction permits the comprehensive statistics, etc，Because construction progress each development chamber of commerce according to the market change and stock adjustment，The second half of the new supply and actual according to normal amount of construction progress is expected to have great differences between the will；

　　2、新货的统计时间为：2012年7月2012年年底；

2、The statistics of new goods for time：In July 2012 by the end of 2012；

　　3、未推新货是已取得预售证但截止2012年7月仍未推出市场的新货。

3、Not push new goods has been open to booking a card is but until July 2012 is still not introduced into the market new goods。

　　预计不同产品销售表现分化。110m2以下的刚需产品在中心区和外围均有供应，上半年整体消化良好，预测在政策可能进一步想此类群体优惠的情况下，销售继续向好。110-140m2普通改善型产品则集中在外围，上半年消化速度慢，110-120m2产品可能销售乐观，120-140m2将是受限购政策影响最大的群体。140m2以上高端产品在中心区主力供应，上半年200m2以上的豪宅销售畅旺，预计地段优、资源佳的项目将继续热销。

Different product differentiation is expected to sales performance。110 m2 of the following products in the central area and just need to peripheral are supply，Overall digest good in the first half，The policy may be further forecast to such groups favorable circumstances，Sales continue to better off。110-140 m2 ordinary improve product is focused on the periphery type，In the first half slow digestion，110-120 m2 product may sales optimistic，120-140 m2 will be the biggest impact by 限购 policy group。140 m2 high-end products in the center main supply，In the first half of 200 m2 of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage sales buoyant，Optimal location is expected to、Resources better project will continue to sell like hot cakes。

走势预判：置业者心态平稳向好 成交前景乐观 Trends anticipation：Home buyers are balanced clinch a deal undermined optimistic

　　预计下半年市场政策、供应、置业者心态等因素向积极方向继续转变。在政策方面，调控基调不变，微调向松，同时管理层对提价行为高度敏感，密切关注关注价格变化。而在供应方面，货量总量充裕，存货依旧非常大，另一方面，供应结构有差异，刚需产品仍是主流，中心和外围均有较多供应，高端大户型项目主要来自市区，普通改善型产品则在外围居多。至于置业者心态方面，置业者心态大多平稳向好，部分观望、预跌的心态已转变，主流认为政策持续调控。

The second half is expected to market policies、supply、Homebuyers mentality to the positive factors such as the direction to continue to change。On policy，Regulation fundamental key unchanged，Fine-tuning to loose，At the same time management to raise price behavior highly sensitive，Pay close attention to focus on price changes。And in supply，Cargo total abundance，Inventory is still very large，On the other hand，Supply structure is different，Just need to product is still the mainstream，Central and peripheral all has more supply，High-end projects mainly comes from the large family，Common type in the peripheral product is to improve the majority。As for homebuyers mentality，Most home buyers mentality smooth up well，Part wait-and-see、The fall of the mentality has changed，Mainstream think policy for regulation。

　　虽然各项因素积极转好，但保持价格稳定是基本前提，“避免价格过快上涨”是政府调控的底线。在这样的前提下整体成交乐观，预计高过上半年成交量（303.6万），但是受限购影响，普通改善型产品集中地外围区域，成交受到一定抑制。

Although the various factors turn positive，But maintain price stability is the basic premise，“Avoid price rise rapidly”Government regulation is the bottom line。In this premise overall clinch a deal the optimistic，High volume is expected to in the first half（3.036 million），But by 限购 influence，Ordinary improve concentration type products in the outlying regions，Clinch a deal by certain inhibition。