■CUBN记者 刘末 湖北报道

S CUBN reporter liu reported at the end of hubei province

　　自5月以来，武汉房地产市场急速回暖，进入传统销售淡季7月，也丝毫没有成交减速迹象。一边是销售业绩出现上涨，一边是政府高层不遗余力的强调坚持调控。未来武汉楼市的市场将何去何从？鉴于市场改善性购房需求的坚挺，多位业内专家均表示，下半年或将持续回暖。

5 months since，Wuhan real estate market rapid thaw，Into the traditional sales off-season July，Also no clinch a deal the slowdown。On one side is sales rose，One side of the summit was spare no effort it puts emphasis on regulation。The future of the housing market to be in wuhan？In view of the market to improve the pent-up demand of the firm，Many industry experts are said，The second half or will continue to thaw。

　江城楼市“高烧” River property market“High fever”

　　自6月份以来，全国多个一线、二线城市都进入商品房供应和成交的高峰期。其中武汉6月份商品住宅销售套数高达12108套，已经回升至限购前的顶峰水平。伴随而来的则是各楼盘优惠力度减小，导致房价下跌乏力。

Since since June，The national multiple a line、Second city into the commodity house supply and the peak of the deal。In June of wuhan commodity residential house sales cycle of up to 12108 sets，Have 限购 back up to the top level before。With favorable strength of building is reduced，Falling house prices lead to fatigue。

　　国家统计局数据显示，6月份70个大中城市的新建商品住宅价格环比5月下降的城市有21个，持平的城市有24个，上涨的城市有25个。环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过0.6%。二手住宅价格方面，70个大中城市中，价格环比下降的城市有19个，持平的城市有20个，上涨的城市有31个。环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过1.1%。

The national bureau of statistics data shows，June 70 major cities of new commodity residential house prices may drop city November 21，The city has a flat 24，The rise of the city has 25。Annulus comparing prices in the city，Or have not more than 0.6%。Second-hand housing prices，In 70 major cities，The price of the decline of the annulus city has 19，The city has a flat 20，The rise of the city has 31。Annulus comparing prices in the city，Or have not more than 1.1%。

　　据悉，因国家统计局发布的是新建商品住宅的价格，已经剔除了价格较低的保障性住房，因此被业内人士认为，该数据比各城市自己发布的房价数据更加贴近市场。

It is reported，Published by the national bureau of statistics for the price of the commodity residential house is new，Has left lower prices of affordable housing，So was the personage inside course of study thinks，The data released his than each city house prices more close to the market data。

　　尽管统计局在数据出台的第一时间即将多城市房价上涨归结为“特殊性”，但业内专家集反驳此观点，不约而同地认为，房价短期拐点已经到来，接下来将是房价的持续反弹，调控政策陷入僵局，如不继续加压，房价将持续上涨，而加压则会导致整体经济稳增长受到阻碍。未来一段时间，房价回涨或在所难免。

Although bureau in data on the introduction of the first cities to boil down to the rising housing prices“particularity”，But industry experts argued against the set point，Complicity to think，House prices short-term inflection point has come，It's going to be sustained rally of the price of the house，Deadlock over control policies，If not continue to pressure，House prices will continue to rise，And the pressure it will lead to overall economic steady growth was hampered。The future for a period of time，House prices HuiZhang or unavoidable。

　　央行降息刺激经济鼓励购买，给楼市带来了不小的利好预期。降息后，武汉市中心区有多处房源开盘或加推，推出的主要房源以85~120平方米的刚需自住房源和130平方米以上的改善型大户型为主，几乎每个楼盘都同时推出了刚需户型和改善型户型，可见抓新晋的改善型人群的同时，传统的刚需人群仍然是不少房企努力抓住的客户群。日前，位于武昌沙湖附近的福星惠誉水岸国际开盘，开盘促销活动仅为总价99折，全款95折，当记者咨询是否有更多优惠时，销售人员称，由于此前销售状况不错，这个优惠近期也将取消，马上就将涨价，每平方米涨幅约为200元左右。

The central bank cut interest rates to stimulate the economy encourage buying，To bring a lot of positive market expectations。After cut interest rates，Wuhan city center at open houses or with push，The launch of the main suite of 85-120 square meters of just need to source from 130 square meters of housing and the improvement of the large family type to give priority to，Almost everyone is also launched just building to family and improve type door model，On the improvement of the jin is a new type of crowd at the same time，The traditional just need the crowd is still a lot of room to catch the enterprises of target customers。a，Located in wuchang ShaHu near the waterfront international star fitch ratings open quotation，Open quotation promotion for total price only 99 fold，All of the 95 fold，When a reporter consulting whether more preferential，Sales staff says，The move sales in good condition，The discount recently also will be cancelled，Will prices immediately，Every square metre or about 200 yuan。

　　相对于此前的积极促销，周末开盘的项目优惠活动似乎都在减弱。位于东西湖的一楼盘于近期开盘，主推90~140平方米的刚需型和改善型房源，均价6500~6800元，开盘当日推出的优惠活动为认筹1万抵5万，除此以外并无其他优惠活动。这一楼盘的状况代表了降息后武汉许多楼盘的态度，即促销变少，尝试涨价。在中央继续加强调控打压房价的声音再次出现以后，各楼盘不敢贸然涨价，但降息带来的利好和对淡季销量预期的看淡，又使他们不会积极降价。

Compared to earlier positive promotion，The opening weekend project favourable activity seems to be weakening。Located in a building in recent DongXiHu open quotation，From 90 to 140 square meters of main just need to type and improve suite type，Average 6500 ~ 6800 yuan，On the day of the opening of the launch of the favourable activity that raise $10000 for over 50000，Besides and no other favourable activity。This building dish status represent the wuhan many buildings after cut interest rates of attitude，Namely promotion less，Try prices。In the central continue to strengthen the regulation of the price of the house down again after voice there，Of building hesitate price increases，But bring the good and to cut off the expected sales see light，And that they won't actively reduce the price。

　改善性购房需求旺盛 Improve the pent-up demand of exuberant

　　房价回涨到底是“特殊性”还是已成大势，市场的反应是最好的解答。7月以来，北京、上海等多个城市出现了成交量的大规模上涨，时值传统淡季，不少城市的成交量却不断刷新调控以来的成交量纪录，武汉也加入了淡季逆势“抢购”的行列。

House prices HuiZhang exactly is“particularity”Or has already become the half，Market reaction is the best answer。Since July，Beijing、Shanghai and other cities of large-scale appeared volume increases，When the traditional slack，Many cities in the volume of sales is continuously break regulation of record since the volume，Wuhan joined the off-season contrarian“Snapping up”ranks。

　　数据显示，自去年同期起，武汉市90平方米以上的户型销售一直牢牢占据大半江山，2011年还有8月、11月、12月三个月的小户型销量接近40%；到了2012年情况却急转直下，小户型销售占比明显下降，其销量占比在全部户型中连30%都难以突破。同期大户型显然卖的更多，更好。

Data shows，Since the last year，Wuhan above of 90 square metre door model sales have been firmly occupy most state power，2011 years and 8 months、November、December 3 months of small family sales close to 40%；By 2012, the situation was a sudden turn，Small family of sales than decreased obviously，Its sales accounted for more than 30% of all door model in even hard to break。In the same period of large family apparently sell more，better。

　　而据武汉市房管局的成交数据显示，在2012年上半年，90平方米以上的大户型也占有绝对优势，除2月大户型与小户型销售情况旗鼓相当外，大小户型销量差距最大可达21%。而据分析人士介绍，武汉市房管局的成交数据中还包含有保障房等其他类别成交数据，由于保障房等多以小户型为主，实际上武汉楼市之中大户型销量仍旧更佳。

And according to wuhan city of room canal clinch a deal data show，In the first half of 2012，More than 90 square meters of large family also has an absolute advantage，In addition to February large family and small family sales outside evenly matched，Door model the largest gap size sales can reach 21%。And according to the analysis personage introduction，Wuhan city of room canal clinch a deal data also include other categories such as room of a security clinch a deal data，Because the guarantee room and so on the many mainly small size，In fact wuhan property market large family of sales still more better。

　　据业内人士分析，2012年上半年武汉楼市，小户型因其总价低分外受到刚需的欢迎不假，但小户型相对数量不多也是事实，小户型多用于吸引人气。然而，随着刚需消耗以及各月开盘加推楼盘度对户型的调整，市场上的小户型也越发罕见了起来。

According to industry analysts，Wuhan property market in the first half of 2012，Small family because of its low price is just need to welcome out to be true，But small family relatively small number is also the facts，Small family used to attract more popularity。however，With just need to consumption and opened his month addition push to the adjustment of the building dish door model degree，The small family model on the market more rare up。

　　2012年2月，武汉新开盘与加推楼盘中，小户型和非小户型还差不多能平分秋色，分别占47%、53%；到了5月，这一差距迅速增加为仅有30%的小户型楼盘对70%的非小户型楼盘；7月，这个现象越发严重了起来，主推小户型的楼盘只占17%，多达45%的项目同时推出小户型和大户型，还有38%的楼盘主推大户型。消耗多而供应少，后期市场上的小户型或许将面临青黄不接的“断档”局面。

February 2012，Wuhan new opening and addition push in the building，Small family and the small family still could almost equal shares，(47%)、53%；By may，This gap increase quickly for only 30% of small family estate in 70% of the small family estate；July，This phenomenon grew more serious up，Main small family buildings of only 17%，As many as 45% of the project along with a small family and large family，And 38% of the main building large family。Consumption and less supply，The small family model on the market late may be facing the rainy day“DuanDang”situation。

楼市涨价或将持续 Price increases or property market will continue

　　对于后市房价是否还会上涨，业界专家的“房价已过拐点，调控陷入僵局”的看法代表了业内许多人的观点。

If house prices for market outlook will go up，Industry experts of“House prices has been a turning point，Regulation stalled”View represent the many people's point of view。

　　多数业内人士表示，连续降息刺激了部分购房者出手买房，对开发商来说，最困难的时机已经过去。武汉购房者仍以地缘性客户居多，而且购房者的眼睛越来越亮，购房时不光看价格，也会考察开发商的实力，考察楼盘的质量，居住的舒适度，进行综合衡量。

Most people in the industry say，To slash interest rates on the part of the person that buy a house to buy a house stimulus shots，The developers to，The most difficult time has in the past。Wuhan homebuyers still with geopolitical sex customers are in the majority，And the eyes of the person that buy a house is more and more light，When buying price not only look，Will also examine the strength of the developers，Examine the quality of the buildings，Live in comfort，Comprehensive measure。

　　还有部分业内人士则认为，武汉楼市呈现W型的走势，品质开发商可能会提高产品价格，大部分开发商还会采取维稳的措施，另一些库存量较大的开发商会继续以价换量。

And part of the industry is considered，Wuhan market present W type trend，Quality developers may improve product prices，Most developers will also take d stability measures，Some other inventories larger development chamber of commerce continue to change the price quantity。

　　而据某房地产网站一项调查显示，60.71%的网友也认为楼市走向琢磨不定，目前武汉楼市的高烧升温还将会持续一段时间。

And according to some real estate web site a survey，60.71% of the net friend also think property market uncertainty to ponder，At present the property market warms up high fever wuhan will continue for some time。

　　某市场研究机构的一位分析人士也表达了同样的观点，该分析人士认为，下半年武汉楼市将继续走回暖，这种回暖主要表现在销量上。而销量会对价格产生大的影响，成交量的持续上涨，会给房价上涨产生压力。他认为目前房屋成交均价微涨的原因主要有三个，首先，统计技术上的原因；其次，楼市回暖，高端楼盘入市，提升了成交均价；最后，前期销量回暖，使得部分刚需盘的开发商产生了涨价的动力。

A market research institutions to a analysts expressed the same point of view，The analysts said，The second half of wuhan property market will continue to go thaw，The thaw mainly displays in sales。And sales price to produce greater impact，Volume continue to rise，To create pressure rising housing prices。He now believe that the price of the house closed up there are three main reasons，first，Statistical techniques reasons；second，Property market warms up，High-end building entry，Promoted the price；finally，Reverting to the sales，Just need to dish made part of the developers produced the power of the price。

　　尽管新的更严格的调控政策或新一轮的经济政策会不会出台悬而未决，而许多人也在等待金九银十会迎来一小轮销售竞争，但随着时至今日销售的持续走高，武汉楼市的几大龙头房企上半年计划已经超额完成，下半年销售压力不大，恐怕可观的降价在下半年难以出现，取而代之的，可能是又一轮涨价潮。

Although new, more stringent regulation policy or a new round of economic policy will not come up in the air，And many people are also waiting for jin jiuyin 10 will usher in a small round sales competition，But with today's sales continued high，Wuhan property market of a few big leading room in the first half of enterprises plan has been fulfilling，The second half of sales pressure is not big，I'm afraid considerable reduction to appear in the second half，instead，May be another round of price boom。