市场力量正在争夺房地产市场话语权

Market forces are competing for the real estate market right

　　针对最近一些城市出现的房价反弹现象，国土资源部和住建部近日联合下发通知，要求各地政府采取有力措施防止房价反弹，特别是要严控高地价。通知特别指出，地方上的房地产市场调控政策不能擅自放松。但是，两部门的通知墨迹未干，7月20日，在天津举行的一场土地拍卖会上，经过78轮的竞价，天津师大八里台校区一个地块成功拍出，楼面价高达13026元/平方米，溢价率达到32%。这块地也成为天津市从2011年至今的单价最高地块，与此形成对比的是，今年上半年整个天津市土地拍卖市场一直较为低迷，成交土地平均溢价率仅为0.67%。

In some cities of house prices in recent rebound phenomenon，The ministry of land and resources and live JianBu have jointly issued a notice，Requires all the government to take strong measures to prevent prices rebound，Especially tight control of high price。Notice particularly pointed out that，The local real estate market regulation policy can't relax without authorization。but，The two departments of MoJiWeiGan notice，July 20,，In tianjin at a land auction，After 78 rounds of bidding，Tianjin normal university BaLiTai campus a plot beat out a success，Floor price as high as 13026 yuan/square metre，Premium rate reached 32%。The land also become tianjin so far from the 2011 unit price of the highest plot，By contrast，In the first half of this year the whole land auction market has been relatively tianjin slump，Clinch a deal the land average premium rate is only 0.67%。

　　一边是政府部门频频喊话严控房价，一边是土地拍卖市场再度趋热，“地王”重新进入市场，对渴望房价继续下行的普通民众形成强烈的刺激。天津出现的这个“地王”不是孤立的，就在7月10日，北京已经出现了令人咋舌的万柳“地王”，成交单价达到4万元/平方米。7月17日，南京国土局在其官网上连续发布41条土地出让预告，一天出让土地总面积达到230.2万平方米，而当地今年上半年总推地量也才只有128万平方米。

Is the side of the government department frequently propaganda tight control of house prices，On one side is the land auction market again is hot，“royal”Back into the market，The downside of eager to house prices continue to common people to the formation of strong stimulation。Tianjin appeared this“royal”Are not isolated，On July 10,，Beijing has come as an affair wanliu“royal”，Clinch a deal unit price to 40000 yuan/square metre。July 17,，Nanjing in its official website choose for release article 41 land transfer forecast，One day the land area of 2.302 million square meters，And in the first half of this year the total push to local amounts to only 1.28 million square meters。

　　土地拍卖市场热潮涌动，地方政府积极搭台推地，开发商也乐意一掷千金，甚至愿意顶着舆论的风口浪尖争做“地王”，这是近段时间许多城市房地产市场出现的新情况，说明市场调控已经出现了新的动向。从政府的态度来看，调控政策似乎未有变化，不仅有国务院两部门专门发文要求防止房价反弹，政府官员也在多个场合重申两年来我们已经听得很熟悉的调控立场。但是，开发商却一改先前的谨慎态度，又开始往房地产市场大把撒钱，争做“地王”，显然，他们敏感的商业嗅觉已经感受到了房地产市场在未来可能出现的变化。

The land auction market surge of hot flashes，The local government DaTai actively push，Developers are willing to splurge，Even willing to crest of the public opinion of the struggle is the two-decade-long“royal”，It is nearly time many city real estate market appears the new situation，Explain the market regulation has the emergence of a new trend。From the government's attitude and see，Control policy seems to be no change，Not only have two departments under the state council shall dispatch special requirement to prevent prices rebound，Government officials also on many occasions reiterated that two years we have heard familiar with the position control。but，But a change of the previous developers cautious attitude，And began to the real estate market and money，Vying for“royal”，obviously，They sensitive commercial smell has the feeling the real estate market in the possibility of future changes。

　　这个变化就是政府面对经济指标下行的困难，在提出“稳增长”目标后，原来在调控重压之下喘不过气来的房地产市场似乎得到了一线生机。实际上，市场已经先于开发商和地方政府对此作出了反应，国家统计局公布的6月70个大中城市房价数据显示，相比5月，有更多城市的商品住宅销售价格出现了上涨，北京、上海和广州的新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨了0.3%、0.2%和0.2%，深圳虽环比下降0.1%，但降幅比5月份收窄。这种变化说明，不仅开发商感觉到了市场变化，普通的购房者也认为房价将要反弹从而出手购房，并促成了连续两个月的房价环比上升。

This change is that the government in the face of economic indicators downside difficulties，In this“Steady growth”goals，The original control under pressure in the breath of the real estate market appears to be a line vitality。In fact，The market has been ahead of the developers and local governments responded，National bureau of June 70 large and medium-sized cities data showed that house prices，May compared，More the commodity residential house city sales prices appear to rise，Beijing、Shanghai and guangzhou new commodity house prices up 0.3% month-on-month、0.2% and 0.2%，Shenzhen is annulus comparing fell 0.1%，But in May drop than narrow。This changes show that，Not only the developers feel market change，Ordinary buyers also think prices will rebound shot to the house，And led to two consecutive months of house prices rising annulus。

　　显而易见，虽然中央政府对于调控态度坚决，但一些地方政府的态度却有点暧昧。经济指标下行的威胁使地方政府很看重的“土地财政”告急，因此土地拍卖出现了高潮，开发商也不惧舆论压力而争当“地王”。而所有这一切，都与“稳增长”的目标相吻合，大家都明白，如果各个行业都实现了“稳增长”，房地产市场却继续一片低迷，这种情景是不可能出现的，是违反经济规律的。事实上，在以往多年的GDP连年高增长中，房地产市场曾经作出了重要贡献，而目前的GDP增速下降，就连国家统计局都不讳言是因为房地产市场调控起的作用。既然要让GDP继续保持适度增长，地方政府完全有可能重新燃起对房地产市场的激情，这股火现在被压着，只要有机会，它就一定会释放出来。

obvious，Although the central government for regulation be firm，But some places the government's attitude is a bit vague。Economic indicators that the threat of descending local government is very important“Land financial”dries，So the land auction appear the climax，Developers are not afraid of pressure of public opinion and the struggle“royal”。And all this，and“Steady growth”Target practice，We are aware that，If each industry came true“Steady growth”，The real estate market continues to swooned，The situation is not possible，Was a violation of economic law。In fact，In past years of GDP growth in successive years，The real estate market was made an important contribution，But the present off GDP growth，Even the national bureau of statistics don't need because of the role of the real estate market regulation。Now that will let GDP continue to maintain moderate growth，The local government is likely to real estate market renewed the passion，The fire was now pressure，As long as the opportunity，It will be released。

　　本轮房地产市场调控至今已有两年多时间，调控所取得的成绩，应该归功于政策的强制力量。但是，房地产市场终归要回到市场状态，政府的“看得见的手”总有一天要退出。目前当然还未到调控政策退出的时间窗口，但是，市场的这种变化提醒我们，市场力量已经开始在房地产市场上争夺话语权。政府必须重视这种市场变化，并采取相应的对策，一方面将调控成果巩固住，另一方面也应考虑为调控政策的退出创造条件。

This real estate market regulation has been more than two years，Control the achievements，Thanks to the policy should be mandatory power。but，The real estate market will eventually go back into the market and state，The government's“Visible hand of the”One day to exit。Now of course is not to withdraw from the control policy time window，but，This kind of change of market reminds us，Market forces in the real estate market has started to compete for the right。The government must pay attention to the market change，And take the corresponding countermeasure，On the one hand will control its findings to live，On the other hand should also be considered for the control policies from create conditions。

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　　周俊生

ZhouJunSheng