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压力减轻开发商喘上口气--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-16

  本报讯(记者 涂露芳)昨天,市统计局、国家统计局调查总队发布上半年房地产运行数据,全市完成房地产开发投资1298.3亿元,比上年同期增长4.7%,增速比1月至5月提高1.9个百分点,其中政策性住房投资猛增33.4%。

Report from our correspondent(Reporter TuLouFang)yesterday,, municipal bureau of statistics、The national bureau of statistics released NBS survey office in the first half of the real estate operating data,The complete real estate development investment of 129.83 billion yuan,Than the same period last year growth of 4.7%,Growth than January to may. Increased by 1.9%,The policy of housing investment soared by 33.4%。

  6月末,全市政策性住房施工面积为4239.5万平方米,同比增长42.6%;新开工面积为671.4万平方米,同比增长2.4%;竣工面积为174.5万平方米,同比增长67.1%。上半年,全市政策性住房完成投资371.9亿元,而纯商品房投资规模为926亿元,同比下降3.6%。单月情况看,6月政策性住房投资完成127.2亿元,投资规模首次超百亿元,且占当月房地产总投资的比重为35.6%,超过30%。

At the end of June,The policy of housing construction area of 42.395 million square meters,Year-on-year growth of 42.6%;New commenced area for 6.714 million square meters,Year-on-year growth of 2.4%;Completion covers an area of 1.745 million square meters,Year-on-year growth of 67.1%。In the first half of,The policy of housing completed investment of 37.19 billion yuan,And pure commercial housing investment scale for 92.6 billion yuan,3.6% year-on-year drop。Odd-numbered months at a,June policy housing investment finished 12.72 billion yuan,For the first time investment of over ten billion yuan,And the total investment of real estate the proportion is 35.6%,More than 30%。

  以6月份保障房新开工面积235.9万平方米估算,实际新增供应将达到2.7万套,上半年新开工规模将至少有7至8万套。

In June to ensure room new start area of 2.359 million square meters estimation,The actual new supply will reach 27000 sets,In the first half of the new start scale will at least seven to 80000 sets。

  链家地产市场研究部人员分析,虽然当前楼市走出低谷,但纯商品房投资规模丝毫不见抬头的趋势,反而整体呈现负增长。房企投资意愿低迷,一方面是因为房企自身的资金压力,库存消化问题还并未完全解决。另一方面,随着近期市场反弹压力不断增大,下半年政策风险增加,促使房企投资更为保守。

Chain home real estate market research personnel analysis,Although the current property market went out of whack,But pure commercial housing investment scale of a bit up trend,But present the negative growth。Room enterprise investment intend to downturn,On the one hand because room to its own funds pressure,Inventory digestion problem is not fully resolved。On the other hand,With the recent market rebound pressure increasing,In the second half of the increased risk of policy,Make room enterprise investment more conservative。

  上半年,全市房地产开发项目本年到位资金为2293.2亿元,比上年同期下降9.9%。其中,金融贷款为664亿元,同比增长13.8%;自筹资金为543.8亿元,同比下降31.5%;定金及预收款为709.3亿元,下降0.7%。“资金压力最大的时期已经快过去。”北京中原市场研究部总监张大伟认为,虽然企业负债率依然比较高,但是在银行信贷微调的基础上,成交量开始有所起色,下半年开发商自筹资金的压力会减轻。

In the first half of,The whole city real estate development project in the capital for 229.32 billion yuan,Than the same period last year dropped 9.9%。the,Financial loan for 66.4 billion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 13.8%;Self-raised funds for 54.38 billion yuan,31.5% year-on-year drop;The deposit and advances received for 70.93 billion yuan,Fell by 0.7%。“Capital pressure maximum period has fast in the past。”Beijing central plains market research department director ZhangDaWei think,Although enterprise liability ratio is still high,But in the bank credit on the basis of fine-tuning,Volume has gotten started,In the second half of the developers self-raised funds will reduce the pressure。

  社科院报告

Cass report:

  期房预售应适时取消

Forward delivery housing pre-sale shall timely cancel

  本报讯(记者 董长青 实习生 谢超杰)中国社会科学院昨天在京发布《中国住房发展(2012年中)报告》。报告认为,尽管今年6月房地产走势出现偏离“软着陆”调控目标的趋势,但只要下半年政策得当,住房市场调整仍有望趋向价格缓慢下降。报告建议,取消首套房贷利率优惠和期房预售制度。

Report from our correspondent(Reporter DongChangQing interns XieChaoJie)The Chinese academy of social sciences released yesterday in Beijing《China's housing development(2012 years)The report》。The report says,Although June this year real estate trend appears deviation“Soft landing”The trend of the control target,But as long as the second half of proper policy,The housing market adjustment are still expected to slow down the price trend。The report recommends that the,Cancel the first set of mortgage interest rate preferential and forward delivery housing pre-sale system。

  这个报告由社科院财经战略研究院“住房问题研究”课题组完成。报告认为,首套房优惠并不能从实际意义上刺激太多刚性需求,即便改变政策,按照调控目标也应该在房价理性回归到一定程度(比如房价下降10%以后)后。此前两次降息时“要求商业银行对个人住房贷款利率浮动区间的下限仍为基准利率的0.7倍”,无疑发出了一个房贷降息的信号,是市场预期发生改变的主要原因。

The report by the academy of financial strategy research institute“Housing problem research”Completed his。The report says,The first suite preferential and not the actual sense stimulation rigid demand too much,Even if the change of policy,According to the control target should also be on the prices of rational return to a certain degree(Such as house prices fell by 10% later)after。After two times when to cut interest rates“For commercial Banks to individual housing loan interest rate floating interval of the lower limit for the benchmark interest rate is 0.7 times”,No doubt made a mortgage rate cut signal,The market is expected to change is the main reason。

  基于上述原因,课题组建议,在下半年的住房市场调控政策中取消首套房贷利率优惠,还建议取消期房预售制度。这是因为,在目前开发商商品房库存量较大的条件下适时取消期房预售制度,有利于控制开发商资金链,促使其快建快销。

Based on the above reasons,His advice,In the second half of the housing market regulation and control policy to cancel the first set of mortgage interest rate preferential,Also suggested that cancel the forward delivery housing pre-sale system。This is because,In the present commercial housing developers under the condition of large inventory timely cancel the forward delivery housing pre-sale system,To control the developer fund chain,Promote the fast built fast pin。



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