渣打银行近期在中国8座城市对30家房地产开发企业进行了调研。渣打银行大中华区分析师申岚认为，调研结表明中国房地产已达到一个拐点，步入复苏。一到三线城市房屋数量上升，全国房屋销售同比负增长已经触底。房价似乎已触底，部分城市房价开始再次回升，竣工房屋面积大幅度下降，意味着新房供应量将是有限的。(8月10日《经济观察报》)

Standard chartered bank recently in China, eight cities to 30 real estate development enterprise the investigation。Standard chartered bank analysts ShenLan think the greater China region，Research "shows that China's real estate has reached an inflection point，Into recovery。One to three line up urban house number，The national housing sales year-on-year has sole。House prices seem to have sole，Parts of the city house prices have started to rebound again，Completion building area dropped substantially，Means that new house supply will be limited。(August 10,《Economic observer》)

　　不仅中国，其他国家的楼市也有复苏迹象。全球房地产服务公司仲量联行日前发布的2012年第三季度《全球市场观察报告》指出，二季度全球房地产投资额恢复至1080亿美元，环比增长24%。在美国，深陷破产困境的房利美和房地美实现大幅盈利，“两房”公布的二季度财报显示，二季度净利接近一季度的两倍，这也被看作美国楼市转暖的信号。

Not only China，Other countries also have the property market recovery signs。Global real estate service company Jones lang lasalle has issued in the third quarter of 2012《The global market observation》Pointed out that，The second quarter global real estate investment recovery to $108 billion，Link growth of 24%。In the United States，Difficulties in bankruptcy of fannie mae and Freddie MAC, to realize profit greatly，“Two room”Announced second quarter earnings display，The second quarter net profit close quarter two times，It was also seen as U.S. housing warm signal。

　　但与美国鼓励或刺激消费者购房不同的是，从2011年以来，中国采取了严厉的楼市调控政策，如“限购令”等，其目的是要把过高的房价压下去。这些举措，对控制房价上升起到了一定作用，对楼市的影响的确不小，但并未伤筋动骨，房地产市场目前有复苏迹象。

But with the United States encourage or stimulate the consumer purchase is different，Since 2011，China has taken strict market regulation and control policy，if“Is restricted to”, etc，Its purpose is to put too much pressure on prices。These measures，To control the rising house prices to certain role，The influence of the property market to small indeed，But did not have a fracture，The real estate market there are signs of recovery。

　　不过有人认为，楼市回暖只是“回光返照”，在短暂回升后，楼价很快就会下滑。在他们看来，今年与2011年相比，多半是下降的。近期楼市复苏只是指交易量有所回升，但价格恐怕还将继续下调。况且，坊间曾有不少预测，中国楼市将走向崩溃，房价将下降20%，甚至50%。

However, some people think that，Housing milder just“Last gasps”，In short recovery，Property prices will soon glide。In their eyes，This year compared with 2011，Most is falling。The recent property market recovery is refers to the volume of trade have rebounded，But the price I'm afraid will continue to cut。besides，Urban there have been a lot of prediction，China property market will lead to collapse，House prices will fall 20%，Even 50%。

　　这种预测带有想当然的意味。想想看，如果2010年迪拜楼市暴跌50%的局面在中国出现，介入房地产的银行将会出现巨额不良资产，到时，不排除一大批银行半破产甚至破产。

This prediction with that take it for granted。think，If 2010 years dubai property market slump 50% of the situation in China emerge，Real estate bank will appear huge bad assets，then，Would not rule out a large number of bank half bankruptcy or even bankruptcy。

　　因此，人们千万不要相信楼市是一个随时会引爆的泡沫。政府很难在经济增长不出现严重放缓的情况下遏制通货膨胀，因而只能让房价在一定时间内出现下跌，但这与楼市出现崩溃没有丝毫关系。其实，政府方面所做的楼市调控政策和措施，只是在寻求房价的稳定，让其原地踏步，而不是真的要把房地产业置于死地。

therefore，People don't believe that the property market is a will detonate at any time of foam。The government is hard to in economic growth does not appear serious slows curb inflation，Thus can only let house prices fall in a certain time，But this and the property market collapse appear no relationship。In fact，The government of the property market regulation and control policies and measures，Just looking for house prices stable，Let the mark time，Not really want to put the real estate industry in death。

　　有人形容，从房地产市场化以来，中国楼市发展的上半场已结束，现在开始进入下半场，未来是向右转(走向复苏)还是向左转(走向崩溃)，尤其引人注目。本月8日至11日，在博鳌房地产论坛上，来自住建部、中国房地产协会和国内知名房企的代表人物，围绕房价走势、调控走向等问题进行了激烈交锋。

Some people describe，Since the real estate market from，The development of Chinese market in the first half is over，Now begin to enter the second half，The future is to turn right(Toward recovery)Or turn left(To collapse)，Especially eye-catching。This month 8 to 11,，In boao real estate on the BBS，Live JianBu from、China real estate association and the well-known domestic room is the representative figure of enterprises，Around the house price trend、Regulation to the problems such as intense battle。

　　一种观点认为，今年下半年在银根放松和“稳增长”的政策环境之下，房地产的回暖还会持续。回顾房地产行业发展的各个阶段，凡是土地供给低增长的情况出现，一定会形成后期的房价高增长。

A kind of view，In the second half of this year and monetary easing“Steady growth”Under the policy environment，Real estate milder is likely to continue。Review of the real estate industry at various stages of development，All land supply low growth occurs，Will form later house prices high growth。

　　另一种观点则认为，目前政府楼市调控的目的、对象已经明确。为巩固调控成果，前不久，国务院派出8个督察组赴16个省市了解调控政策落实情况。由于政府已经强调了继续调控，而且进行了调查，各个省也开始做了新的表态，在这种情况下，楼市要翻身或者出现大行情的可能性很小。

Another view is that，The purpose of the government regulation and control the property market、The object is already clear。To consolidate control results，Not long ago，The state council sent eight DuChaZu 16 provinces and cities to understand regulation policy implementation。Because the government has emphasized the continue to control，And to carry on the investigation，Each province also start to do a new statement，In this case，The property market will turn over or there is little possibility of big market。

　　回头看，原有的调控政策药效并不明显，但是新的调控政策却未必敢下猛药。8月9日公布的宏观数据表明，CPI同比增长1.8%，表明中国经济已经出现紧缩情况。而PPI和固定资产投资等多个经济数据都出现了历史性谷底，对于宏观经济调控来说，当前既不能像2008年那样出台4万亿刺激计划，又不能再对经济进行更严厉的紧缩。

Look back，The original control policy effects are not obvious，But the new regulation policy but not dare the fierce medicine。August 9, published the macro data shows，CPI year-on-year growth of 1.8%，Show that China's economy has been tightening situation。And PPI and investment in fixed assets, and other economic data has historic valley floor，For the macroeconomic regulation and control it，The current can neither in 2008 as issued 4 trillion stimulus plan，And can't the economy more severe deflation。

　　由此判断，8月至9月政府不可能出台新的调控政策，即便第四季度政府再度调控楼市，也不会有什么猛药了。今年下半年在银根放松和“稳增长”的政策环境之下，房地产的回暖还会持续。从短期来看，国内楼市回暖或复苏是一件好事，毕竟，对政府决策层提出的“稳增长”是一个强有力的支撑。(邱林)

This judgment，8 months to September government may introduce new regulation policy，Even if the fourth quarter the government regulation and control the property market again，Also won't have what fierce medicine。In the second half of this year and monetary easing“Steady growth”Under the policy environment，Real estate milder is likely to continue。In the short term，The domestic property market milder or recovery is a good thing，After all，For the government decision-making is proposed“Steady growth”Is a strong support。(Pastor Lin qiu became the pastor-developer of)

　　本文内容来源于网友向中国经济网评论理论频道的投稿，征稿邮箱：cepl#mail.ce.cn（#改为@）。

This paper content from the net friend to China JingJiWang review theory channel's contribution，Solicit contributions mailbox：Cepl# mail. Ce. Cn（@ # to）。

相关评论： Relevant comments：

　　楼市调控需有新思路

The property market regulation must have new ideas

　　楼市调控不能松

The property market regulation can not loose

　　楼市调控功夫在楼市之外

The property market regulation kung fu in the property market outside