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一、扩大投资是促进经济增长的必要措施--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-13

  改革开放以来,中国的经济一直保持高增长状态。中国经济增长是多方面因素驱动的,但深入来看,全社会固定资产投资是拉动经济增长的最主要因素。

Since the reform and opening,China's economy has maintained high growth state。The growth of China's economy is driven by many factors,But further to see,The social fixed assets investment is to stimulate the economic growth is the main factor。

  尽管我国投资率已然很高,但由于有高储蓄率做保障,利用高储蓄有利条件扩大投资规模、优化投资结构、完善投资体制、提高投资效率,仍是必要的,也是可行的。在消费无法简单提升、储蓄难以大幅下降的客观条件面前,宏观经济必须通过投资与出口来平衡。2000年以来,我国主要依靠出口平衡,中国经济因此走上了出口依赖型的道路。这条道路把我国带入了外贸顺差过大、外汇储备过多、流动性过剩、国际贸易纠纷频发的不可持续状态。2008年以来的经济危机进一步警示这条道路的危险性。由此看来,中国经济必须寻找新的发展与平衡路径,这就是必须立足国内,扩大内需,通过扩大国内投资来平衡国内储蓄,并依靠投资的扩大提高就业水平和居民消费能力,最终实现国内投资与消费的双重提高,从而减轻储蓄上升压力,最终实现国民经济的良性循环。

Although our country investment rate is very high,But with high savings rate do guarantee,By using high savings favorable conditions to expand investment scale、Investment structure、Perfect investment system、Increase the investment efficiency,Is still necessary,Is feasible。In the consumer can't simply ascend、Savings to the big drop before the objective conditions,Macroeconomic must through the investment and export to balance。Since 2000,Our country mainly rely on export balance,China's economy so dependent on the way of export。The road to the our country foreign trade surplus is too large、Foreign exchange reserves too much、liquidity、International trade disputes with frequent unsustainable status。Since 2008, the economic crisis is a further warning about the dangers of the road。So it,China's economy must look for new development path and balance,This is based on the domestic market must be,Expanding domestic demand,By expanding domestic investment to balance domestic savings,And depend on the expansion of investment increase employment levels and consumer ability,Finally realize the domestic investment and consumption of dual improve,And reducing the upward pressure on savings,Finally realize the virtuous cycle of national economy。

  分析显示,中国的固定资产投资与经济增长的关联度显著。在分产业投资中,与经济增长的关联度由大到小的排序为:电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业 > 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 > 建筑业 > 农、林、牧、渔业 >房地产业 > 教育 > 采矿业 > 制造业 > 水利、环境和公共设施管理业 > 批发和零售业。由此可以看出:

Analysis showed that the,China's fixed assets investment and economic growth of the significant correlation。In the points in the industrial investment,And economic growth by big correlation to small order:power、Gas and water production and supply industry > transportation、> > postal service storage and construction farmers、Lin、Animal husbandry、The fishery > > > real estate industry education mining > manufacturing > water conservancy、Environment and public facilities management > wholesale and retail。We can see that:

  第一,与经济增长关联度较大的投资集中于具有垄断性质的行业。经济增长主要依赖于垄断行业的投资额,而竞争性行业的投资与经济增长的关联度并不大,说明垄断性行业仍是经济增长的主力,而竞争性行业( 主要集中在第三产业) 仍处于较为弱势的地位。

The first,And economic growth of correlation degree bigger focus on quality has the monopoly industries。Economic growth depends heavily on the investment of monopoly industries,And in competitive industries, investment and economic growth of correlation degree is not great,Explain monopoly industries is still the main economic growth,And competitive industry( Mainly focus on the third industry) Still in a weak position。

  第二,制造业投资利用效率不高。制造业的投资额占全社会固定资产投资总额远高于其他行业,但制造业的投资对经济增长的影响却不是很大,说明中国制造业的投资效率仍有待提高。这种投资高增长、低效率的现象,表明中国的制造业仍然延续着粗放发展的模式。造成这种现象的原因主要有:其一,中国仍处于工业化和城市化发展的中期阶段,投资增长的空间较大,粗放型经济模式对经济增长的拉动作用较大;其二,产能过剩,重复建设的情况较为严重。其三,企业与地方政府还是较为关注短期经济利益,而未从长远角度考虑经济发展的问题,导致过度追求具有短期效益的高污染、高耗能的投资项目,降低了投资对经济增长的贡献度。

The second,Manufacturing investment use efficiency is not high。The total investment amount of the manufacturing social total investment to fixed assets is far higher than other industries,But manufacturing investment on economic growth, but the influence of is not very big,China's manufacturing industry that there is a need to further improve the investment efficiency。This investment high growth、The low efficiency of the phenomenon,That Chinese manufacturing still continued extensive development pattern。The reasons of this phenomenon caused mainly:one,China is still in the development of industrialization and urbanization mid-term stage,Investment growth bigger space,The extensive style of economic model of economic growth to pull function is bigger;The second,Excess capacity,Duplicate construction are serious。thirdly,Enterprise and local government or more concerned about short-term economic interests,But not, in the long run, consider the problem of economic development,Cause excessive with short-term benefit of pursuit the high pollution、Of gas-guzzling investment projects,Reduce the investment contribution to economic growth。

  第三,房地产业及建筑业与经济增长的关联度处于较高水平,经济增长受房地产业影响较大。

The third,The real estate industry and construction and economic growth in a higher level of correlation degree,Economic growth influenced by the real estate industry。

  第四,第三产业中大部分行业与经济增长的关联度偏低。说明第三产业的投资额还是处于不足的水平,对经济增长的贡献度不大。

The fourth,The third industry, most of the industry and economic growth in low correlation。The third industry that the investment or in the level of insufficient,The contribution to economic growth is not big。

  目前,我国整体经济增速呈现放缓态势,经济下行压力加大。2012年5月,中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.4%,比上月回落2.9个百分点。经济增速的放缓可能带来财政、就业等方面的问题。通过适度的投资规模来稳定经济的运行非常必要。在可预见的未来,投资仍然是经济增长的重要引擎。

At present,China's overall economic growth slowdown in present situation,Economy downward pressure increase。May 2012,China's manufacturing purchasing managers index(PMI)50.4%,A drop of 2.9% than last month。The slowdown in economic growth may lead to financial、The problem of employment, etc。Through the moderate scale of investment in the operation of the economy to stability is very necessary。In the foreseeable future,Investment is still an important engine of economic growth。



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