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评论:人均住房36平米 粗糙地“被平均”没意义--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-19
北京大学召开中国家庭动态跟踪调查研讨会,发布由北大中国社会科学调查中心完成的《中国民生发展报告2012》。调查显示,去年全国家庭现住房完全自有率为84.7%。住房类型上,42.2%的家庭现住房为平房,比2010年调查结果下降了8.5个百分点。全国家庭的平均住房面积为116.4平方米,人均住房面积为36.0平方米(8月6日《北京日报》)。
Peking University held a Chinese family dynamic tracking survey seminar,Issued by the north China social sciences research center of the finish《China minsheng development report 2012》。Investigation shows that,Last year the national family now housing completely ZiYouLv is 84.7%。Housing types on,42.2% of the family now housing for bungalow,The results of the survey than in 2010 fell 8.5%。The national family average housing area is 116.4 square meters,The per capita housing area is 36.0 square meters(6 August《Beijing daily》)。
虽然住房调查只是家庭动态调查中的一个小项,但是家庭平均住房面积116.4平方米、人均住房面积36.0平方米的调查结果,还是立即引起了很大的争议。其实,类似的人均住房面积调查之前也有过,每次亦是遭遇炮轰。为什么屡屡会有这种在公众看来明显违背常识的调查结果涌出?这究竟是统计调查的局限,还是数据美化的故意?人均住房面积36平米,这个数据也许是真实的,只不过,调查数据如果不能有效反映社会现实,真实的数据同样毫无意义。
Although housing survey just family dynamic survey of a minor term,But the family average housing area of 116.4 square meters、The per capita housing area of 36.0 square meters of the results of the survey,Or immediately caused a lot of controversy。In fact,Similar per capita housing area before the survey also had,Every time is also encounter cannon。Why often will have this kind of in the public seems obvious against common sense out the results of the survey?Whether it is the limitation of statistical investigation,Or data landscaped intentionally?The per capita housing area of 36 square meters,This data might be true,just,Survey data if not effectively reflect the social reality,The real data also make no sense。
众所周知,全国住房信息目前并不联网,无论是限购政策还是多套房区别信贷政策,在落实时都只能是地域分割各自为政。因此,完全依靠抽样调查的家庭住房信息,并不能得到官方住房信息的佐证;而且,被调查家庭能否如实提供住房信息,恐怕也是挺成问题的。特别是那些拥有多套住房的家庭,对于这样的调查肯定会有防范心理,他们会如实提供最真实的住房信息吗?更何况,“家庭”如何界定,本身就是一个问题。如果那些在外打工者都算是一个家庭,他们都是无房户,住房自有率还会那么高吗?
As is known to all,The national housing information network does not currently,Whether purchasing policy or suite difference between credit policy,When in implementation are only regional segmentation each does things in his own way。therefore,Depend entirely on sampling survey of family housing information,And can't get the official housing information evidence;and,Be investigated family can provide housing information,I'm afraid is also a problem。Especially of those who had multiple sets of housing family,For this survey will certainly have to prevent psychological,They will provide the most real housing information?besides,“family”How to define the,Itself is a problem。If those outside the migrant workers are a family,They are WuFangHu,Housing ZiYouLv will so high?
平均工资也好,平均住房也罢,“被平均”都是一个绕不开的话题。少数家庭拥有很多套住房,多数家庭只有一套住房甚至没有住房,一味将这两者平均,无论数字如何靓丽,那也是毫无意义的。导致人均住房面积偏大,一个很重要的因素是因为“42.2%的家庭现住房为平房”。在城市中,所谓平房如果不是别墅至少也是排屋了,这里面的绝大部分平房显然都是指的农村住房。农村住房无疑都是面积偏大的,问题是这适合拿来和城市住房平均计算面积吗?为什么不能区分农村与城市分别统计住房面积呢?
Average wage or,Average housing or,“Be average”Is a is not open around the topic。A smaller number of families have many sets of housing,Most families have only a housing didn't even housing,Blindly will both average,No matter how beautiful figures,It is meaningless。Lead to the per capita housing area of partial big,A very important factor because“42.2% of the family now housing for bungalow”。In the city,The so-called bungalow if not villa at least also row house,Here the most bungalow is obviously is refers to the rural housing。Rural housing undoubtedly is the area slants big,The problem is that the suitable for bring and urban housing average calculation area?Why can't distinguish between the rural and the urban statistical housing area respectively?
在农村,因为宅基地基本是免费的,建房成本虽然也大幅上涨,建房负担毕竟不像城市房价那样几年翻几倍;在城镇化的背景下,将农村住房面积与城镇住房面积简单平均,虽能造就好看的数字,却无法掩藏真实的城镇住房需求。事实上,如果“全国家庭现住房完全自有率为84.7%”、“人均住房面积为36.0平方米”等数字,的确真实地表达了当前住房现状,住房问题根本不会成为最受关注的问题,中央也完全没有必要如此严格地进行楼市调控既然“住有所居”早已高水平地实现了,何必再毫不动摇地坚持楼市调控?
In the countryside,Because the homestead basic is free,Although housing costs rise considerably,After all, not build a burden as city house price that a few years turn several times;In the background of urbanization,The rural housing area and urban housing area simple average,Although can make a good digital,But can't hide the real urban housing demand。In fact,if“The national family now housing completely ZiYouLv is 84.7%”、“The per capita housing area is 36.0 square meters”digital,Indeed true to express the current housing situation,Housing problem can't become the most concern problems,The central is absolutely no need to be so strictly for the property market regulation since“Live in somewhat”Had a high level is realized,Why to unswervingly adhere to the market regulation?
一份以关注民生发展作为核心内容的报告,应该力求避免调查数据不能如实反映民生现状的可能。当某个调查数据可能会引起歧义时,粗糙地“被平均”是不明智的,细化指标并且具体分析才能较为有效地还原真实。以此对照,“人均住房36平米”或许的确是真实的,但除了聊以自慰外毫无现实意义。
A to pay attention to people's livelihood development as the core content of the report,Should strive to avoid survey data cannot truthfully reflect the current situation of the livelihood of the people may。When a survey data may cause discrepancy,rough“Be average”Is not wise,Refining index and concrete analysis to more effectively reducing real。To control,“The per capita housing 36 square meters”Maybe it is true,But in addition to the consolations no practical significance。
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