本报实习记者 张敏

Our newspaper reporter ZhangMin practice

　　调查市场需求端变化 Survey the market demand end change

　　“我们这一排是北京市中介行业协会和各经纪机构的代表，对面坐了一排督察组的同志，后面是北京市住建委的官员。”7月31日下午，国务院督查组召开座谈会，一位与会人士向中国证券报记者描述现场的情况。他还表示，在当天的座谈会上，北京住建委的人“只能听，不能说”。

“We this row is the intermediary industry association and the representative of the brokerage institutions，The sat for a row of DuChaZu comrades，Beijing is built appoint live behind the officials。”On July 31, afternoon，The state council held a forum DuZhaZu，A attendees to China stock certificate report reporter described the situation。He also said，On the day of the symposium，Beijing is built appoint people live“Can only listen to，Can't say”。

　　这一路督查组包括国土部、住建部、银监会和国税总局的相关人士。据悉，此次座谈会主要是向市场人士了解最新动向，此前督查组已专门到北京的部分中介门店走访，了解市场情况。

All this DuZhaZu including land department、Live JianBu、Banking regulatory commission and the state administration of relevant personage。It is reported，This symposium is mainly to market participants understand the latest trend，After DuZhaZu has been specially to Beijing visit partial intermediary shop，Know the market situation。

　　督查组的行程颇为紧密。按照工作安排，当天上午，督查组已与北京市房地产协会的人士及部分专家学者座谈，次日还将向开发商代表了解情况。而在其他省份，督查时间也被安排得满满当当。

DuZhaZu trip quite close。According to the work schedule，In the morning，DuZhaZu already and the Beijing real estate association personage and some experts and scholars discussion，The next day will also represent to developers understand the situation。And in other provinces，Protecting time is also arranged get full to the brim。

　　“督查组的人士以询问为主，很少做出指示或表态。”中国证券报记者了解多路督查组的具体工作情况后，均得到了类似回答。据了解，在上述北京的这场座谈中，督查组询问的内容主要涉及限购令执行情况、成交量能否持续、下半年的市场供应等。同时，督查组还询问了北京部分“日光盘”和高价地对市场带来的影响。

“People ask DuZhaZu to give priority to，A few instructions or comment。”China's stock certificate report reporter understanding multiple DuZhaZu specific work after，All got similar answer。It is understood，In the above Beijing in the discussion，DuZhaZu inquiry content mainly involves is restricted to implementation、Volume can continue、In the second half of the market supply, etc。At the same time，DuZhaZu also asked Beijing part“Day CD”And dear to the impact of the market。

　　“找市场人士谈，主要是了解供需关系，尤其是需求端的变化。”这位与会人士说。根据北京市住建委的统计，7月北京成交商品住宅（新房加上二手房）29089套，环比上涨13.6%，同比上涨64.2%。事实上，包括北京在内，当前大部分限购城市的楼市成交量仍然保持较高水平。

“To find the market people talk about，Main is to know the relationship between supply and demand，Especially the demand changes。”The participants who said。According to the Beijing municipal live is built appoint statistic，July Beijing commodity residential house clinch a deal（Bridal chamber and second-hand house）29089 sets，Link up 13.6%，Rose 64.2% year-on-year。In fact，, including Beijing，The current most restricted urban property market turnover remains a higher level。

　　业内人士认为，在“新国八条”出台一年半之时，个别城市在“限购令”等政策的执行中出现松动，导致部分投机投资需求伺机入市。需求端的异动，不仅是当前局部市场出现量价齐升的原因，同时可能造成未来的市场供需失衡，促使房价继续上涨。

The personage inside course of study thinks，in“Article eight new countries”Out of a year and a half，Individual cities in“Is restricted to”The execution of the policies appear in loose，In some speculative investment demand bided entering the market。The demand different dynamic，Not only is the current local market appear quantity price JiSheng reason，At the same time may cause future market supply and demand imbalances，Make house prices continued to rise。

　　对于未来的市场状况，与会人士普遍认为，在经历了近半年的快速释放后，刚需支撑乏力，改善型需求释放有限，未来几个月的市场交易量很难保持上述水平。但他们仍然向督查组建议，应警惕投机投资需求入市，以及个别楼盘坐地起价的现象。

For the future market conditions，Participants who is generally accepted that，After nearly half a year after the rapid release，Just need to support lack of power，Improve type demand release limited，The next few month of the trading volume of the hard to keep the above level。But they still to DuZhaZu Suggestions，Should be vigilant the speculative investment market demand，And the individual building swapping phenomenon。

　　作为影响市场供需关系的重要调控手段，“限购令”和信贷政策的执行情况自然也成为督查的重点。据了解，督查组近日在广东调研部分房企，了解其运作是否符合限购政策的规定。此外，另一路督查组还在上海对数个楼盘的房贷业务进行检查，了解差别化信贷政策的执行情况。

As the influence of market supply and demand relations important regulation means，“Is restricted to”And credit policy implementation nature has become the focus of supervision。It is understood，DuZhaZu recently in guangdong representative by enterprises，To understand its operation is in compliance with the provisions of the purchasing policy。In addition，Another way DuZhaZu in Shanghai logarithmic a building dish mortgage business for inspection，Understand differentiation credit policy implementation。

　　更关心房价上涨原因 More concerned about the house price rising reasons

　　供需关系的变化直接体现在房价走势上。“督查组对量价齐升的现象心里有数，他们更关心的不是"量涨"，而是"价涨"。”上述知情人士向中国证券报记者表示，派往北京的这一路督查组，多次问起6月以来北京楼市出现量价齐升的原因，尤其是价格上涨的原因。

The change of supply and demand directly reflected in prices on the trend。“DuZhaZu volume and price to JiSheng phenomenon for the heart，They are more concerned with is not"Quantity rise"，but"Price rise"。”People familiar with the above to the Chinese stock certificate report reporter said，Sent to Beijing this DuZhaZu all the way，Many times since June asked Beijing property market appear quantity price JiSheng reason，Especially for much of the increase。

　　需求的大量释放和部分项目的提价，被认为推高了近期的成交量和价格。北京中原地产统计显示，7月北京有八成项目提高均价。按照不少机构的预测，若不采取必要手段，即使未来成交量下滑，房价仍将继续反弹。

A large number of demand release and part of the price of the project，Is thought to push up the recent volume and price。Beijing central plains real estate statistics show，July Beijing has eighty percent project improve average price。According to the prediction of many institutions，If you don't take the necessary means，Even if the future volume decline，House prices will continue to rebound。

　　事实上，督查组对房价的关注更多体现在与政府部门的交流中。中国证券报记者从知情人士处获悉，督查组在与湖南、江苏两省的政府部门座谈时，首先询问的便是房价控制目标的制定和完成情况。

In fact，DuZhaZu to the attention of house prices more reflected in and government departments in communication。China's stock certificate report reporter from people familiar with the matter have learned，DuZhaZu in and hunan、Jiangsu provinces when the government department discussion，First ask is house prices control target plans and complete the situation。

　　针对房价控制目标的问题，江苏省住建厅有关负责人在座谈中表示，2012年江苏建立了房地产信息系统及预销售备案系统，房价控制目标今年虽未特别公布，但地方政府已将此作为一项既定规则，作为政府的一个承诺，确保把房价控制在合理水平。

According to the problem of house price control target，Live in jiangsu province built hall in the discussion about chief said，In 2012, jiangsu set up real estate information system and preliminary sales record system，House prices control target this year though not special announced，But local governments have this as an established rules，As the government's a promise，Ensure that the house price control in a reasonable level。

　　对于这一问题，湖南省的官员则强调，去年湖南省的房价涨幅控制在个位数，低于全省的GDP增长速度。但对于今年的房价控制目标，他未做明确说明。

For this problem，Officials in hunan province is emphasized，Hunan province last year the housing price control in low single digits，Below the province's GDP growth rate。But for this year's house price control target，He do not make clear explanation。

　　按照“新国八条”的要求，去年全国大部分城市制定并公布了房价控制目标，且完成情况较好。但今年以来，甚少有城市公布上述目标，这也使得地方政府缺乏对控房价任务的量化参考。中国房地产学会副会长陈国强表示，今年以来，一些热点城市房价上涨较快，甚至明显超过了去年制定的房价上涨目标。

According to the“Article eight new countries”requirements，Last year the national majority of cities formulate and promulgate the price control target，And finish well。But since this year，Very few city announced the goal，It also makes the local governments lack of control prices task of quantitative reference。China's real estate society vice-chairman Chen guoqiang said，Since this year，Some hot city house price rising fast，Even more than the obvious formulated last year prices target。

　　“北京楼市为何出现量价齐升态势？”“湖南省今年的房价控制目标是多少？各地有没有制定具体的目标？”近日，国务院督查组分赴北京、湖南、江苏等地开展督查时不约而同将“火力”放在了房价问题上。

“Beijing property market why appear quantity price JiSheng situation？”“Hunan province this year's house price control goal is to much？Have all formulate specific goals？”recently，The state council DuZhaZu had fanned out Beijing、hunan、Jiangsu, protecting to develop when will happen to coincide“fire”On the house prices on the problem。

　　从7月下旬开始，国务院派出8个督查组，对16个省(市)贯彻落实国务院房地产市场调控政策措施情况开展专项督查。有关人士透露，督查组通过听取汇报、现场走访和座谈交流等形式，了解当地的政策执行情况和市场形势，这些信息共同指向的焦点则是房价走势。

From late July began，The state council sent eight DuZhaZu，On 16 provinces(city)Implement the state council the real estate market regulation and control policies and measures to carry out special situation of supervision。Relevant sources，DuZhaZu through the listen to the report、Site visits and discussion exchange form，Understand the local policy implementation and the market situation，The focus of these information common orientation is the trend of prices。

　　业内人士认为，本轮督查过后或有新一轮政策出台，而房价上涨趋势很可能加速新政的出台进程。新政除在保障房建设、个人住房信息系统建设、房产税试点等长效手段上加力外，还将强化原有政策的执行。其中，针对房价控制目标的制定与完成，对地方政府的问责很可能得到强化。

The personage inside course of study thinks，After the epicycle supervision or have a new round of policies，And the house price rising trend is likely to accelerate the New Deal appearing process。The New Deal in addition to safeguard room construction、Personal housing information system construction、Housing property tax pilot long-term means such as strength outside，Will also strengthen the original policy execution。the，According to the prices of control target formulation and complete，On the local government's accountability is likely to have been strengthened。

　　强化地方政府问责制 Strengthening the local government accountability system

　　在很多业内人士看来，“控房价”不仅是本轮督查启动的诱因，其目标还可能体现在督查后新政制定过程中。上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭向中国证券报记者表示，在督查组回京、形成报告并提交后，中央很可能据此出台新一轮调控政策。他还表示，新政出台的时间，将视7月的房价数据而定。若中央预期房价继续快速上涨，新政很可能会提早出台。

In a lot of the personage inside course of study looks，“Control prices”Not only is this start of protecting the incentive，The goal may also embodied in the process of establishing the New Deal after protecting in。Shanghai enjoysmart real estate institute vice President YangGongXu to China stock certificate report reporter said，In DuZhaZu back to Beijing、After the formation of the report and submit，The central probably accordingly issued a new round of regulation and control policy。He also said，The New Deal on the introduction of the time，July will depend on the house price data and decide。If the central expected house prices continue to rise rapidly，The New Deal will probably come early。

　　根据国家统计局的数据，今年6月，全国70个大中城市新建商品住宅（不含保障性住房）价格平均环比上涨0.02%，在连续下跌8个月后首次出现正增长。

According to the national bureau of statistics data，In June this year，The national 70 large and medium-sized cities new commodity housing（Does not contain the indemnificatory housing）Price average link up 0.02%，In the continuous fell 8 months after first appeared positive growth。

　　督查之后出新政，已成为多数业内人士的共识。陈国强认为，新政将以强化原有调控手段为主，其中，针对房价控制目标的制定和执行情况，启动对地方政府的问责很有必要。“若没有房价控制目标，就缺乏问责地方政府的依据，也就无法落实地方政府的责任。”

After protecting a New Deal，Has become the consensus of the majority of the personage inside course of study。Chen guoqiang think，The New Deal will give priority to in order to strengthen the original control means，the，According to the prices of control target formulation and implementation，Start on the local government's accountability is necessary。“If there is no house prices control target，Lack of accountability is the basis of the local government，Cannot implement the responsibility of local government。”

　　财政部公布的数据显示，上半年全国国有土地使用权出让收入仅为11430亿元，同比减少4342亿元，下降27.5%。土地出让金收入减少，被认为是地方政府松绑楼市政策的主因。有不少业内人士认为，若不在房价控制上启动问责，地方政府试盘的尝试将会更多，房价上涨的动力也将更足。

The ministry of finance published data display，In the first half of the transfer of state-owned land use right income is 1.143 trillion yuan only，Up a decrease of 434.2 billion yuan，Fell by 27.5%。The land grant fee income decrease，Considered the local government housing policy easing the main reason。There are many the personage inside course of study thinks，If not in house prices control start accountability，The local government ShiPan attempt will be more，House prices rising power will also be more full。

　　此外，作为楼市调控和税费改革的一项长效机制，房产税试点或将加快推进。据悉，督查组曾在北京多次询问房屋的空置率情况。对此，与会人员一致建议，在减少房屋交易环节税种的同时，开征保有环节的税收。伟业我爱我家(博客,微博)统计显示，当前北京市场的空置房屋套数约在30万-40万套之间，相当于该市一年多的住宅销售量。

In addition，As the property market regulation and taxation reform a long-term mechanism，Housing property tax pilot or will accelerate the。It is reported，DuZhaZu worked in Beijing many times ask housing vacancy rate condition。this，The participants consistent advice，In reducing housing transaction link categories of taxes at the same time，Collecting the keep link tax。Cause I love my family(blog,Micro bo)Statistics show that，The current Beijing market vacancy house number sets about 300000-400000 between sets，The city is equivalent to more than a year of residential sales。

　　另据中国证券报记者了解，针对北京万柳地块在拍卖中推行的“限地价、竞保障房面积”的做法，督查组予以肯定。这也意味着，为避免高价地对市场预期产生不利影响，未来的土地出让中，上述竞价方式或继续得到鼓励和推广。

According to another Chinese stock certificate report reporter understanding，According to Beijing wanliu block in the auction of the implementation“Limit price、Race safeguard room area”practice，DuZhaZu be sure。It also means，To avoid high price to the market is expected to produce adverse effect，The future land lease，The above competitive bidding or continue to be encouraged and promotion。

　　杨红旭表示，督查后的新政将以强化原有政策执行为主。此外，二手房交易税提高、房地产贷款收缩等手段都可能作为储备政策择机出台，但这需要视具体的督查情况而定。他还认为，下半年楼市将有所降温，房价大涨可能性为零，以盘整态势为主。

YangGongXu said，After protecting the New Deal will be to strengthen the original policy implementation is given priority to。In addition，Second-hand house transaction tax increase、Real estate loans contraction, and other means may be as a reserve policy on the timing，But this need depending on the specific situation of supervision and decide。He also thinks，The second half of the property market has cooled，House prices rose possibility is zero，Give priority to with consolidation trend。