本周一，标题为《温州炒房团几近全军覆没》（以下简称“全军覆没”）的报道，占据了各大门户网站财经频道的显著位置。而在上周，另一篇《温州炒房团卷土重来》（以下简称“卷土重来”）的报道，也曾享受过相同的待遇。

On Monday，Title for《Wenzhou form a group nearly completely annihilated》（Hereinafter referred to as“Completely annihilated”）reports，Occupy the major website financial channel significant position。And in the last week，Another paper《Wenzhou form a group stage a comeback》（Hereinafter referred to as“back”）reports，Have enjoyed the same treatment。

　　“全军覆没”虽与“卷土重来”针尖对麦芒，但如同“卷土重来”的新闻要素“缺胳膊断腿”一样，“全军覆没”的新闻要素同样“五音不全”。简言之，两篇报道都不靠谱，闲来翻阅无伤大雅，谁若信以为真那会误事。

“Completely annihilated”Though and“back”Needlepoint to awn of wheat，But as“back”News elements“Lack the arm leg”as，“Completely annihilated”News elements also“Can't carry a tune”。In short，Two reports are not by spectrum，Idle to browse through fib，If who believe it will subject to delays。

　　“温州炒房团”一说本身就带有符号化，其抬高房价的破坏性虽不言而喻，但自从该“团”名被媒体硬戴在温州商人头上后，它的能量及破坏性一直被媒体和网络无限度放大。

“Wenzhou form a group”Said itself with symbolization，Its prices destructive is self-evident，But since the“group”Name by the media hard wear in the wenzhou businessmen after head，Its energy and destructive has been media and network and liable amplification。

　　判断温州商人及手握的巨额游资，是否卷土重来再行炒房，万不可轻信一些媒体报道和网络炒作，释放“卷土重来”恐慌情绪的，都是与开发商、购房中介穿一条裤子的写手。炒房的先决条件既不是资金亦不是意愿，而是先要满足三个条件：限购政策是否继续坚持；限贷政策是否实际松动；宏观经济下行压力是否已严重到了必须再度放弃楼市调控之地步。

Judge wenzhou businessmen and hand hold huge hot money，Whether any back form，Do not take some media and network media，release“back”Panic mood，Is with the developers、The intermediary to wear a pair of pants "。Real estate market will prerequisite is neither money nor intend to，But first to satisfy three conditions：Purchasing policy of whether or not to continue to insist on；Limit credit policy is the actual running；The macro economic downward pressure is serious to have to give up market regulation again the point。

　　先看“双限”，到目前为止，虽有部分城市搞了不少变相放松的“小动作”，但中央是发现一起制止一起，或者未经实施即胎死腹中。不仅如此，中央政府仅今年以来就前后10次强调楼市调控决不言放松。上月底，中央政府6个督察组刚对包括京沪穗在内的10省市进行过一轮楼市调控督察，督察组返京后释放的最新信号是，房产税试点极有可能在近期扩围、扩品种，达摩克利斯之剑很有可能剑指存量房。

Look at“Double limit”，So far，Although there are parts of the city have a lot of disguised relaxation“Petty action”，But the central is found to together together，Or without implementation namely die on the vine。Not only that，The central government this year only has 10 times before and after the emphasis on the property market regulation never speech to relax。The end of last month，The central government six DuChaZu just to include the beijing-shanghai ear, 10 provinces and cities of a round of the property market regulation inspectors，DuChaZu return after the release of the latest signal is，Housing property tax pilot is likely in the near future expansion circumference、Expanding varieties，Sword of Damocles sword is likely to stock room。

　　再析宏观经济下行压力。毫无疑义，上周起分散公布的7月份经济数据虽堪忧，但仅举规模以上工业增加值（GDP的主要构成基础）同比增幅依然达到9.2%一个数据，足以说明宏观经济远未到非“救楼市”不可的程度。

To analysis the macro economic downward pressure。There is no doubt，Last week released scattered in July economic data is worried，But only for above designated size industrial added value（GDP, the main construction foundation）The year-on-year growth rate is still 9.2% a data，Enough to explain the macro economic far from non“To save the property market”Not degree。

　　再析一个数据更说明问题。央行上周六公布7月人民币贷款新增5401亿元，较6月份少增3797亿元，信贷萎缩幅度之大难以置信。然而，是银行缺乏流动性无法向企业放款么？答案恰恰相反。且不说央行二季度以来连续降准释放流动性合计近万亿元，仅6月下旬以来，央行连续通过逆回购操作，又“额外释放”流动性累计超过8000亿元，再加上银行每月正常的平均5000亿元的放贷额度，人们很容易得出一个严酷的结论：不是银行头寸紧，而是企业普遍缺乏申贷意愿。

To analysis a data that more problems。The central bank announced Saturday July RMB loans increased by 540.1 billion yuan，In June a little increase 379.7 billion yuan，Credit atrophy amplitude of incredible。however，The bank is lack of liquidity can't to enterprise loan yao？The answer is just the opposite。Apart from the central bank since the second quarter continuous drop must release liquidity aggregate nearly one trillion yuan，Only since late June，The central bank continued through reverse repurchase operation，and“Additional release”Liquidity accumulated more than 800 billion yuan，Plus bank monthly normal an average of 500 billion yuan lending limit，It's easy to get a harsh conclusion：Not bank position tight，But enterprise general lack of "credit intend to。

　　消费萎缩、经济下行全球一个腔调，意味着需求严重不足而产能过剩加剧，实体经济利润持续下滑。如此情势，楼市调控一旦动摇，其结果只能比饮鸩止渴还可怕这其中隐含的道理是，在银行流动性如此丰厚、贷款基准利率有所下调的情形下，众企业都缺乏申贷意愿，一旦楼市调控半途而废，导致房价重新报复性蹿升，无异于“鼓励”更多在实体经济中“苦苦煎熬”的资金外流至楼市再行短期套利。如此这般，非但“稳增长”成为一纸空文，中国经济流行多年、危害致深的“轻实体重套利”的投机病势必进一步加剧，这样的恶果任何痛定思痛的“责任政府”都必须坚决避免。

Consumption atrophy、Economic down global a accent，Means that a serious shortage of demand and excess capacity increased，The real economy profits continue to decline。Such situation，The property market regulation once moved，The result can only than the remedy is worse than the also terrible which implied truth is，In the bank liquidity so rich、The benchmark lending interest rates have come down cases，The enterprise is the lack of "credit intend to，Once the property market regulation and control things by halves，Cause prices to retaliatory comes up，is“encourage”More in the entity economy“Bitter suffering”Capital outflow to market any short-term arbitrage。So and so，Not only“Steady growth”Become a dead letter，China's economic popular for many years、Harm cause deep“Light entity heavy arbitrage”Speculative disease will be further intensifies，Such consequences of any recall a painful experience“Responsible government”Must be resolutely avoid。

　　下此判断并非危言耸听，实体经济之所以走到今天这般地步，恰是前几年全社会热衷炒房，诱使众多企业把“制造平台”变为“融资平台”，以技改升级、增能扩产作借口，从银行“套”取大笔资金炒房、炒金、炒期、炒基甚至炒大蒜造成的恶果。所见，这一轮楼市调控，不到万不得已，中央绝对不会动摇，而中国经济结构之凶险病情，也不允许再行半途而废。

Down this judgment is not alarmism，The real economy is go to such an extent today，Just a few years ago the whole society is keen to form，The lure many enterprises“Manufacturing platform”into“Financing platform”，Technical upgrade to、Energized modification make excuse，From the bank“set”Take form a large sum of money、Fried gold、Fried period、Fried base even Fried garlic caused by the evil consequence。see，This round of the property market regulation，Less than as a last resort，The central never moved，China's economic structure and the dangerous condition，Don't allow any things by halves。

　　由是，另一结论已可得出，那就是咬紧牙关调控楼市亦包括股市，无论如何都得把资金重新赶回实体经济才是唯一靠谱的。 (钱塘人)

by，Another conclusion can draw，That is bite the bullet control property market also include stock market，No matter what, just to put money to get back to the real economy is the only by spectrum。 (Qiantang people)