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尹中立:高房价正在威胁中国的制造业--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-26
近日,运动服装巨头阿迪达斯宣布:“出于重新整合全球资源的策略考虑,阿迪达斯会在今年晚些时候关闭在华的唯一一家自有工厂”。该工厂位于苏州工业园,是阿迪达斯集团100%的全资子公司。
recently,Sportswear giant adidas announced:“A new integration of global resource strategy considering,Adidas will shut down later this year in China has its own factory the only one”。The factory is located in suzhou industrial park,Adidas group is a wholly owned subsidiary company of 100%。
导致阿迪达斯撤离的原因是中国的工资快速提升,希望把生产线迁往人力成本更低的东南亚国家,类似的案例已经出现多起,如耐克(Nike)于2009年3月关闭在华唯一位于江苏太仓的鞋类工厂,1400名工人被迫遣散,工厂迁至越南生产。
Lead to adidas evacuation reason is that China's wage rapid promotion,Hope that the production line moved to human cost lower southeast Asian countries,Similar cases have appeared many up,Such as Nike(Nike)In march of 2009 closed in China is located in jiangsu taicang only the shoes factory,1400 workers were forced to disband,The factory production moved to Vietnam。
内地内衣上市企业黛丽斯2011年表示,打算将部分高成本生产线迁离中国,扩张在泰国的生产,并在柬埔寨投资新厂房。
The mainland underwear listed enterprise d lish 2011 said,Going to the high cost of production line uproot China,Expansion of the production in Thailand,And in Cambodia investment in new plant。
日资运动鞋企业ASICS今后也主要在东南亚国家生产,不会增加中国生产定单,其在越南和印尼的海外总生产量将从2010年的40%调高至2015年的60%以上。
Japanese ASICS sneakers enterprise in the future also mainly in southeast Asian countries production,China does not increase production order,Its in Vietnam and Indonesia overseas total production will be in 2010 from 40% up to 2015 years of more than 60%。
日资大型零售集团UNY在中国的服装生产比重,由现在的74%下调至2013年的65%,而泰国的生产比重将会提高,今年将在孟加拉生产。
Japanese large retail group UNY in China's garment production proportion,From the current 74% down to 65% in 2013,And Thailand's production proportion will increase,This year will in Bangladesh production。
导致企业成本迅速增加的关键因素是房地产价格的大幅度上涨。房价的快速上涨推动土地价格及租金的上涨,更重要的是,房价的上涨倒逼工资的上涨。
Lead to enterprise cost increase quickly is the key element of real estate price rise greatly。House prices rise rapidly promote land price and rent increases,More important is,The rise in house prices DaoBi wage inflation。
在中国东部很多城市,即使地方政府给于土地价格的优惠,工厂建起来了,工人也难以在城市生存和扎根。
Many cities in eastern China,Even if the local government to land price discount,The factory was built for the,Workers also with difficulty in urban survival and take root。
笔者早在2004年就呼吁,要防止土地价格的上涨影响制造业的竞争力,如今,这个担忧不幸成为现实。
The author as early as in 2004 called for,To prevent land prices influence the competitiveness of manufacturing industry,now,The worry unfortunately become a reality。
从区域来看,东南沿海地区是中国对外开放的先行区域,长三角和珠三角更是有世界影响力的“中国制造”的大本营。在高成本面前,这些地区所受的打击也更大。
From regional to see,The southeast coastal region is China opened up to the world the first area,Yangtze river delta and pearl river delta but also has the world influential“Made in China”Base camp。In front of the high cost,These areas are also more big blow。
除了成本上升之外,房价的持续上涨的另外一个副作用是分流产业资本,导致企业家创新的动力下降。自2003年以来,由于房地产价格的持续上涨,使得拥有房产或土地的企业及个人的财富迅速增长,使大量资本向房地产行业聚集。
Since 2003,Because the real estate prices continue to rise,Make own property or land enterprise and personal wealth growth,Make a large number of capital to the real estate industry gathered。
以2011年为例,房地产投资为6.2万亿,占GDP的比例达到14%,该比例超过1989年的日本,也超过2007年的西班牙(1989年的日本房地产泡沫达到巅峰,2007年是西班牙的房地产高点)。
Taking 2011 as an example,Real estate investment for 6.2 trillion,The proportion of GDP reached 14%,The proportion of more than 1989 years of Japan,More than 2007 years of Spanish(1989 years of Japanese real estate bubble to get to the top,2007 years is Spain's real estate highs)。
2011年的新房销售额达到6.1万亿,占当年新增居民储蓄的60%;当年新增加的信贷中,按揭贷款和房地产开发贷款占20%,若加上信托贷款,则房地产融资占融资总量的比例至少在40%左右。房地产业成为第一吸金产业。
2011 years of new home sales reached 6.1 trillion,That accounts for 60% of new residents savings;The new increase in the credit,Mortgage loan and real estate development loans accounted for 20%,If add trust loans,The real estate financing accounted for the proportion of total financing at least 40%。The real estate industry has become a first suction gold industry。
当房地产开发成为最赚钱的活动时,无论国企还是民企,都热衷于搞房地产开发,科技进步、自主创新等被抛到遗忘的角落,转变经济增长方式成为一句空话。
When real estate development become the most profitable activities,No matter state-owned enterprises or corporation,Are keen to make real estate development,Scientific and technological progress、The independent innovation and be cast to the corner that is forgotten,Change the mode of economic growth become an empty talk。
中国经济要想在未来的几十年有所作为,一定要“去房地产化”,这是世界各国经济发展的经验总结。
China's economy to be in the next few decades as a somewhat,must“To real estate change”,This is the economic development of all countries in the world of experience summary。
日本之所以在二战后迅速崛起,得益于制造业的后来居上,但80年代后搞起了“泡沫经济”,在房地产泡沫破灭后,日本经济陷入了持续20年的衰退,至今看不到曙光。
Japan is in the rapid rise after the second world war,Come from manufacturing,But after 80 s have taken“Bubble economy”,In the real estate bubble burst after,The Japanese economy in the last 20 years of recession,So far see dawn。
欧洲各国在欧元出现后,出现了明显分化的走势,除德国以外,其他各国的房价都出现大幅度上涨,最典型的是西班牙和希腊,随后,这些国家都陷入了严重的债务危机。
European countries in the euro after appear,Appeared differentiation trend,Except outside Germany,Other countries prices soar up there,The most typical example is Spain and Greece,then,These countries are in serious debt crisis。
德国在欧债危机中屹立不倒,最关键的原因是它的房地产价格连续几十年不涨,确保了德国制造业的强大优势一直存在。
Germany in the debt crisis not stand,The key reason is that the real estate price continuous decades not rise,Ensure that the German manufacturing strong advantage there has been。
无疑,中国经济要摆脱对房地产的依赖需要付出巨大的代价,我们应该有壮士的短臂的决心,否则,在这一轮全球经济格局大调整中中国经济将会败下阵。但从现实情况看,到目前为止,各地方政府还没有找到感觉,大家还没有找到新的增长点来替代房地产业。从南京等地出台的刺激内需的措施中可见一斑。
But from the reality to see,So far,The local government has not find the feeling,We haven't found a new growth point to replace the real estate industry。From nanjing, etc on the introduction of the stimulation of domestic demand evidenced in the measures。
尽管7月19日中国国土资源部和住建部联合下发紧急通知,要求坚持房地产市场调控不放松,而且要求地方政府及时收回“小动作”,但23号南京市还是出台了刺激房地产的政策,大有顶风作案之嫌疑。
Although July 19 Chinese ministry of land and resources and living JianBu jointly issued an emergency notice,Demands to the real estate market regulation not relax,And required local governments back in time“Petty action”,But 23 nanjing or issued a stimulation real estate policy,A wind commit crime suspicion。
尹中立,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,金融市场研究室副主任。 YinZhongLi,The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of finance,Financial markets, deputy director of the laboratory。
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