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中国劳动年龄人口“缩水” 专家吁放宽计划生育--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2013-01-19

  中新社北京1月18日电(记者 周锐)中国国家统计局18日发布数据显示,2012年,中国15-59岁劳动年龄人口93727万人,比上年减少345万人,占总人口的比重为69.2%,比上年末下降0.6个百分点。

China news agency Beijing January and report(Reporter ZhouRui)Promulgated by China's national bureau of statistics and data display,In 2012,,Chinese aged 15 to 59 working age population 937.27 million people,More than 3.45 million people last year to reduce,The proportion of total population 69.2%,More than ShangNianMo fell by 0.6%.

  中国国家统计局局长马建堂在当天的发布会上特意提醒媒体注意这一数据。他强调,这是中国劳动年龄人口相当长时间以来第一次出现绝对量的下降,各方须思考如何去顺应这种变化。

China's national bureau of statistics MaJianTang on the day of the conference specially remind media attention to this data.He stressed that,This is the working age population quite a long time for the first time since the decline in magnitude,The parties must think about how to comply with this change.

  中国社科院社会学研究所研究员张翼接受中新社记者采访时指出,虽然劳动年龄人口总量下降,但中国未来一段时间仍将处于人口红利的“维持期”。不过,在14岁以下人口占比逐渐下降的情况下,中国需要考虑适度放宽对生育的控制。

By the Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of sociology ZhangYi accept China news agency reporter to interview points out,Although the total amount of working age population decline,But China's future for a period of time will remain in the demographic dividend"Maintenance phase".but,At 14 years old the following population accounts for more than under the condition of falling,China needs to consider appropriate to relax the birth control.

  近年来,伴随着老龄化加速而至,民工荒屡次上演,“人口红利”的衰减成为各方热议话题。劳动年龄人口从占比下降到总量缩水的变化更是让一些学者担心,支撑中国在过去三十余年间快速增长的人口红利已接近尽头。

In recent years,With the accelerated aging and to,Shortage often stage,"Demographic dividend"Attenuation become parties to a topic of hot debate.Working age population than from down to the change of total shrink is to let some scholars worry,Support China in the past more than 30 years rapid growth of the population bonus has been close to the end.

  “作为一个人口大国,中国和1亿人口以下国家人口转变的特点是不一样的”,张翼告诉中新社记者,国际上对“人口红利”是否存在的判断一般是依据15-64岁人口在总人口中的占比是否超过了70%。

"As one of the most populous country in the world,China and a population of 100 million the national population change characteristic is not the same",ZhangYi told China news agency reporter,The international"Demographic dividend"The judgment of whether there is usually based on 15-64 years old people in the population accounts for more than 70% than whether or not.

  张翼介绍说,过去,伴随着劳动年龄人口的净增加,中国人口红利处于增长阶段。虽然从2012年起,中国劳动年龄人口总量开始减小,但中国15-64岁年龄段人口占比从74%降低到70%以下需要相当长一段时间,这意味着中国仍将经历一段人口红利维持期。

ZhangYi said,In the past,With the increase of net working age population,China's population dividend in growth stage.Although since 2012,China labor age population began to decrease,But China 15-64 years of age of population than has been reduced from 74% to 70% below need quite a long time,This means that China will experience a demographic dividend maintenance phase.

  对于人口红利消失的具体时点,张翼表示学界对此观点不一,但他强调,至少在2020年前,中国都仍将享有人口红利。

The disappearance of demographic dividend for the specific time,ZhangYi said academic circles different perspectives,But he stressed that,At least 2020 years ago,China will still enjoy the demographic dividend.

  马建堂在今天的发布会上也表达了类似观点。他指出,中国劳动人口的总量2012年是9.37亿,尽管在稳步下降,但未来依然有9亿左右,这仍然是中国最大的一个资源优势。

MaJianTang in today's conference also expressed a similar view.He pointed out that,The total amount of China's labor population in 2012 is 937 million,Although in steady decline,But the future still have about 900 million,It is still China's largest a resource advantage.

  虽然中国“人口红利”的窗口仍将打开一段时间,但张翼认为人口结构的变化所带来的挑战已经不容回避。

Although the Chinese"Demographic dividend"Window will open a period of time,But ZhangYi think the change of the structure of population brings the challenge is inevitable.

  首先,中国必须推动劳动力密集型的制造业升级换代;其次,劳动人口的下降,必然会伴随着老年服务相关从业人员工资的上升,在这一过程中须要发展老龄产业,以及更多使用自动化设备。

First of all,China must promote labor intensive industry upgrading;secondly,Labor population decline,Must be with the old service related employment wage rise,In this process the development need aging industry,And more use of automation equipment.

  “最为关键的是,政府部门必须在最近一段时间研究中国人口政策”,张翼指出,任何一个制度实施30年后,其负面效应都会逐渐显现。目前中国14岁以下人口的占比已经跌至16%,各方必须共同评估人口结构的变化对未来社会的综合性影响。

"The key is,The government department must be in recent period of time to the study of China's population policy",ZhangYi pointed out that,Any system implementing 30 years later,Its negative effect will gradually appear.China's population accounted for under the age of 14 than has fallen to 16%,The parties must work together to evaluate the change of the structure of population to the future society's comprehensive effect.

  张翼表示,在这一问题上他的看法是,如果中国的城镇化水平最近几年仍然延续过去20年的增长速度的话,中国政府就应该考虑逐步放宽计划生育政策。(完)

ZhangYi said,In this problem in his view,If China's urbanization in recent years still continue in the past twenty years of growth rate,The Chinese government should consider to progressively liberalize the family planning policy.(finish)


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