本报记者 周雪松

Our correspondent ZhouXueSong

　　上周央行再次降息，楼市恐慌性购房需求可能进一步扩大。然而，研究机构及专家则提醒，下半年这种需求很难支撑楼市进一步回暖。

Last week the central bank cut interest rates again，Property market panic may further expand the pent-up demand。however，Research institutions and experts remind，The second half of this demand is very difficult to support the market further thaw。

　　楼市回暖势头难持续

Property market warms up momentum difficult to keep

　　近两个月来，一系列新的经济刺激政策相继出台，央行在一个月内连续两次降息，全国多个城市的住宅市场出现“量价齐涨”的局面，使人们对楼市调控成果可能付之东流而产生担忧。

Nearly two months，A series of new economic stimulus policy have issued，The central bank in a month for two consecutive times to cut interest rates，The national multiple city housing market appears“Price volume up together”situation，Make people about the housing regulation results may be squandered and produce concerns。

　　伟业我爱我家(博客,微博)集团副总裁胡景晖分析认为，对楼市将全面反弹的担忧是没有必要的。 “6月份出现的恐慌性购房情绪更多是由于人为因素诱导而产生的，没有持续性。下半年，虽然全国各地方政府对楼市政策的微调难以避免，但是楼市宏观调控的大原则不会改变；下半年购房需求总量将逐步萎缩，楼市整体供大于求的买方市场格局不会改变。 ”

Cause I love my family(blog,Micro bo)The vice President HuJingHui analyzed that group，About the housing will be comprehensive rebound of the concern is not necessary。 “There's panic in June that buy a house is more emotional from human factors inducing and of generation，No permanent。The second half，Although the national governments about the housing policy to avoid the fine-tuning，But housing of macroeconomic control big principle will not change；The second half of the total pent-up demand will be gradually shrinking，The buyer's market supply market overall pattern will not change。 ”

　　此外，胡景晖认为，由于目前楼市库存仍居高不下，而且下半年更多的房企供应计划明显多于上半年，所以在去库存的强大压力下，“降价走量”依旧是大多数房企的必由之路。因此，春节后楼市成交量回暖，房价小幅上涨的势头很难在下半年延续，成交量或将再度陷入谷底。

In addition，HuJingHui think，Because the present market the stock remained high，And the second half of the room more enterprises supply plan significantly more than the first half of the year，So in strong pressure to inventory，“Walk quantity price”Is still the only way of most room enterprises。so，After the Spring Festival, property market turnover thaw，A small house prices rising momentum in the second half of it is difficult to continue，Volume or will be thrown into the bottom。

　　值得一提的是，国务院总理温家宝于7月7日再次强调：“楼市调控不动摇，绝不能让房价反弹。 ”胡景晖分析表示，年初至今中央对楼市不下十次的表态，以及坚决叫停多个地方政府的微调政策，表明中央对楼市调控的坚定信心。

It is，The state council premier wen jiabao on 7 July again：“Property market regulation not be moved，Never let a house prices rebound。 ”HuJingHui analysis said，So far the central to market early not ten times the comment，And resolute to stop the fine tuning of local government more than policy，The central committee of the property market regulation that the firm the confidence。

　　胡景晖分指出，支撑年初至今成交量不断回暖的购房需求无外乎三大类：首次置业的刚需；积蓄已久的豪宅需求；5、6月份产生的一小波恐慌性购房需求。

HuJingHui points pointed out that，Early support has warmed up during the pent-up demand volume of outside three categories：First-time home buyers to the just；Savings already a long time of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage the demand；5、In June a small wave produced the pent-up demand of panic。

　　他说，首次置业的刚需由于很难快速再生，所以在经历了近半年的快速释放后，三季度开始首次置业的刚需人群总量或将逐步萎缩；由于有能力购买豪宅的人群毕竟是少数，这类需求在二季度集中释放，也使得下半年的豪宅需求极其匮乏；近来出现的恐慌性购房需求明显增多则是有人借题发挥，误导市场而产生，随着三季度市场再度回归理性，这种恐慌性也将很快得到平复。

He said，First-time home buyers to the just because it is so hard to rapid regeneration，So after a rapid release of nearly half a year，Three quarters of the first-time home buyers to start just total amount or will gradually shrinking population；Because have the ability to buy a person of extraordinary powers curtilage the crowd is minority after all，This kind of demand on release in the second quarter，In the second half of the year also makes a person of extraordinary powers curtilage the demand is short；Recently the panic in the pent-up demand significantly more is someone comes，Misleading market and produce，In the third quarter with market again return to reason，This kind of panic will also soon be calmed down。

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　　胡景晖进一步分析表示，温家宝明确指出要把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策，所以这类需求无法入场；而上月底中央叫停河南房地产调控新政，使得各地方政府放松改善性购房需求的尝试也暂时搁浅。所以，在这几大类购房需求难以给予楼市有力支撑的情况下，下半年楼市形势严峻，不容乐观。

HuJingHui further analysis said，Wen jiabao explicitly pointed out that the inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy，So this kind of demand cannot enter；Last month the central henan real estate and stop the new regulation，Make the local governments to improve the pent-up demand of sex relax to try also put on hold。so，In this broad categories to give the pent-up demand property under the condition of strong support，The second half of the grim situation property market，Not optimistic。

　　房价不会出现强势反弹

House prices will not bounce back stronger

　　在胡景晖看来，下半年楼市成交量能与目前的成交量水平看齐，就已非常乐观。他预计，即使管理层出台了一系列新的经济刺激政策，并接连降息，但是对楼市的调控绝不会出现2008年年底、2009年年初那种由限制买房到鼓励买房的180度大转变。因此，他认为下半年房价不会出现强势反弹。

In HuJingHui seems，The second half with the property market turnover volume level in English，It has very optimistic。He is expected to，Even if the management has issued a series of new economic stimulus，And cut interest rates for，But for the housing market regulation will never appear at the end of 2008、Early in 2009 that buy a house to buy a house encouraged by the restrictions of the 180 degree major transformation。so，He thinks that the second half of house prices won't bounce back stronger。

　　胡景晖说，两大因素决定降价促销仍将是下半年楼市的必然选择：一方面，两次降息对于资金链紧绷的开发商而言，虽然贷款利息会有所减少，但由于对开发贷的严控，开发商只能通过降价促销、加快回款速度来缓解资金压力。另一方面，下半年各大房企的销售任务普遍要高于上半年，所以未来的楼市新增供应量依然可观，而目前全国13个重点城市的楼市库存高达近80万套，所以在完成业绩的压力下，面对不断萎缩的购房需求，“降价走量”依旧是绝大多数房企的主要策略。

HuJingHui said，Two factors decided to depreciate sales promotion will still be the second half of the necessary choice of the property market：On the one hand，Two cuts for capital chain tight developers，Although interest on the loan will be reduced，But because of the development of the tight control of lending，Developers can only through the depreciate sales promotion、To speed up the financial pressure to ease debt collection speed。On the other hand，The second half of the big room of enterprises is higher than the sales task common of the first half，So future market new supply is considerable，And now the country's 13 key city housing inventory as high as nearly 800000 sets，So in complete performance under pressure，Facing the shrinking the pent-up demand，“Walk quantity price”Is still the most expensive room main strategy。

　　而与伟业我爱我家对下半年楼市不太乐观的看法不同，21世纪不动产认为楼市将持续回暖。

And I love my family and great for the second half of property market not optimistic view is different，21 real estate market that will continue to thaw。

　　该机构以北京楼市为例分析认为，“限购”已持续一年半，从目前的情况来看，楼市成交量逐月上升，市场已经回暖。 “今年上半年，北京楼市的最大变化就是度过了市场最坏的时刻。 ”

The agency to Beijing property market as an example, analyzed think，“限购”Has lasted a year and a half，According to the current situation，Property market turnover rose from month to month，Market has warmed。 “In the first half of this year，The biggest change Beijing property market is the market through the worst of times。 ”

　　据21世纪不动产数据监测显示，今年3月份北京二手房成交量同比环比均正增长，此后4月、5月和 6月同比增长分别为 10.3%、81.2%和97.3%。总体来看，二手房市场不断回暖。下半年如果政策保持不变，预计成交量将持续上升，成交价格将呈现稳中微涨的趋势。

According to 21 real estate data monitoring display，In march this year, the volume of Beijing housing projects are year-on-year growth，Four months after this、May and June respectively year-on-year growth of 10.3%、81.2% and 97.3%。overall，Second-hand housing market continuously thaw。The second half if policy remains the same，Expected turnover will continue to rise，Clinch a deal the price will present the stability of the closed up trend。

　　21世纪不动产分析师粟日分析说，目前楼市调控的基调并未变化，限购令及二套以上限贷的政策年内不会放开。所以，整个房地产市场不可能因为降息带来的信贷环境相对宽松，而发生根本性逆转。他建议，开发商仍要采取维持现价、走量出货的措施；消费者也不必过于恐慌，如果房价上涨过快仍将招致决策层的干预。

21 real estate analyst SuRi analysis said，At present the tone of the property market regulation did not change，限购 make and two sets of above the limit credit policy years nasty。so，The real estate market can't cut interest rates because of the credit environment bring relatively loose，And radically reversed。He suggested that，Developers are still take maintain present price、Walk the measures of shipment；Consumers also need not too panic，If house prices rose too quickly will incur decision-making intervention。