6月份的中国指数研究院数据显示，中国百城新建住宅均价为8688元/平方米，环比5月上涨0.05%，扭转了自2011年9月以来的环比下跌局面。中国主要城市房地产成交量6月份同比上涨，延续了自4月份以来的持续上涨趋势，其中超过七成的城市楼市成交量环比上涨，平均涨幅达12.66%，楼市转暖迹象明显。央行今年两次下调存款准备金率，6月份降息0.25个百分点，并且扩大金融机构存贷款利率浮动区间，7月5日再次降息，贷款和存款利率分别下降0.31和0.25个百分点，市场期待已久的不对称降息出现，货币政策微调是楼市回暖的基础。同时，地方政府出台楼市微调措施鼓励合理需求，使楼市的刚性需求得到一定程度的释放。

June China index academy data shows，China's stores in new residence average price for 8688 yuan/square metre，November 5 month rose 0.05%，Turn the since September 2011 the annulus comparing down the situation。China's major cities real estate volume rising in June，Lasted since April continue to rise trend，More than seventy percent of the city's property market turnover annulus comparing to rise，An average increase of 12.66%，Property market signs significantly warmer。This year two central bank cut deposit reserve rate，Cut interest rates in June by 0.25%，Financial institutions and expand the range of floating interest rate，On July 5, cut interest rates again，Loan and deposit rates were down 0.31 and 0.25%，Market long-awaited asymmetry appear to cut interest rates，Monetary policy is the basis of reverting to fine-tune property market。At the same time，The local government issued property market fine-tuning measures to encourage the reasonable needs，Make the market demand of rigid get some degree of release。

　　楼市转暖有助于稳定宏观经济，一季度GDP同比增长8.1%，增幅连续第5个季度下降，在经济中占半壁江山的工业增长速度也在逐季回落，2011年第一季度增长14.4%，而今年第一季度只有11.6%。房地产行业约占我国固定资产投资的1/4比例，楼市量价齐升直接贡献于GDP。而且，房地产市场将带动上下游产业的增长，钢铁、水泥、玻璃等行业将直接得益于楼市的回暖，装修、陶瓷和家电等下游行业也会沐浴楼市的暖风。当前，外部经济形势不乐观，债务危机使欧洲经济陷入泥潭，欧元区经济停滞不前，美国尚没有出现明显的复苏趋势，失业率仍居高不下，外部需求的下降使中国经济面临着下行的压力。房地产行业的复苏无疑会对稳增长有积极作用。

Property market helped to stabilise the warmer macroeconomic，Quarter GDP growth of 8.1% year-on-year，The fifth consecutive quarterly decline a growth，In the economy accounting for half of the industrial growth rate is to stand in the back by season，In 2011, a 14.4% growth in the first quarter，And only 11.6% in the first quarter of this year。The real estate industry in China accounts for about a quarter of the fixed assets investment proportion，Market price volume JiSheng direct contribution to GDP。and，The real estate market will drive upstream and downstream growth in the industry，steel、cement、Glass, etc will directly benefit from property market of buoyancy，decorate、Ceramic and home electrical appliances industry will bath downstream of the property market warm wind。The current，External economic situation is not optimistic，Debt crisis to make European economy in the pool，The economy of the euro area is stagnant，The United States is still no apparent recovery trends，Unemployment remains high，External falling demand to make China's economy faced with downside of pressure。The real estate industry's recovery will no doubt have a positive role to steady growth。

　　我们期待楼市成交量的上升，但是不支持房价的持续上涨。中国房价，特别是大城市的房价过高，房价收入比严重不合理。普通居民的购房压力大，房贷偿还时间长达20年甚至30年。据中国指数研究院数据，上海6月份的新建房屋均价是23141元/平方米，普通居民若购买一套100平方米的住房，首付三成，贷款分30年偿还，每月的还款额超过1万元。很多家庭的房屋支出已占到家庭总支出的一半以上，房贷降低了普通居民的生活幸福度。同时，房价持续上涨容易诱发通货膨胀，银行信贷集中投向房地产行业会增加银行经营的风险。如果房地产行业发生危机，银行将承受大量不良贷款。另一方面，社会资源过于涌向房地产行业，不利于实体经济的发展，因为房地产行业兼有虚拟经济的特征，资金大量涌向虚拟经济不利于实体经济的长期发展。

We look forward to the rise of the property market turnover，But does not support house prices continue to rise。China's house prices，Especially the big city house prices were too high，The housing price to income than serious is not reasonable。Ordinary people purchase of the great pressure，Mortgage repayment time as long as 20 years even 30 years。According to the Chinese index academy data，Shanghai June new housing average price is 23141 yuan/square metre，If the average resident buy a 100 square meters of housing，Down thirty percent，30 years to repay the loan points，Reimbursement specified amount of every months more than 10000 yuan。Many families houses spending has accounted for more than half of total family，Reduce the average resident of mortgage life happiness。At the same time，House prices continue to rise likely to cause inflation，Bank credit to focus on the real estate industry will increase the risk of operating bank。If real estate industry to the crisis，The bank will inherit a bad loans。On the other hand，Social resources too flocked to the real estate industry，Against entity to the development of economy，Because the real estate industry has the characteristics of virtual economy，The rush of money to the virtual economy against economic entity in the long run。

　　楼市调控大方向没有放松，限购令和限贷令仍然在执行中，前期的楼市调控阻止了房价的上涨。主要城市的房价和成交量在调控后均出现下降趋势，调控的效果已然显现。房地产的投资需求和刚性需求都得到了压制，投资者难以异地购房，购房者需要投入更多的资金，自有资金助推房价上涨的动能受到削弱。由于房地产信贷的收紧，刚性需求者购房成本上升，又由于房价下跌预期的存在，一些人主动推迟了购房计划，导致房地产商的库存压力增加。如果房地产市场调控换来的是成交量的萎缩，那是各方都不愿意看到的结果。

General property market regulation no relaxation，限购 make and limit credit to still in execution，The property market regulation prevented the rise in house prices。Major cities in house prices and volume control all appear after decline，The effect of regulation has revealed。Real estate investment demand and rigid demand have been suppressed，Foreign investors to the house，Buyers need to invest more funds，Their own funds helped the kinetic energy prices weakened。Because of the housing credit tightening，The rise in the cost of rigid demanders buys a house，And because of the existence of falling house prices expected，Some volunteers to put off the house plan，In real estate business inventory pressure increases。If real estate market regulation for volume atrophy，That's all parties are not willing to see the results。

　　因此，近期出现的楼市回暖现象，实属来之不易。我们应该积极加以呵护和引导，通过政策微调和预调来释放合理的刚性需求，提高成交量，同时控制房价上涨。如公积金优惠贷款等微调政策，可以很好地鼓励首套房的购买。除了贷款成本外，购房者还需缴纳种类繁多且数额较大的税费。若政府能在首套房购买上给予足额的税收优惠，无疑会激发刚性需求者的购买，提高成交量。足够的供给是平稳房价的有力措施，在土地资源有限的国情面前，政府应引导开发商更多地建造小户型、经济型的住房，满足更多家庭的普通住房需求。

so，Recently appeared in the housing market warms up phenomenon，Is hard-won。We should actively to care and guidance，Through the fine-tuning and preset to release the reasonable rigid demand，Improve turnover，And the control of house prices to rise。Such as accumulation fund loan on favorable fine-tuning policy，May well encourage the purchase of the first suite。In addition to the cost of the loan，The person that buy a house is required to pay the varieties and large amount of taxes。If the government can purchase in the first to give the full suite tax breaks，No doubt will stimulate the rigid the purchase of the purchaser，Improve turnover。Enough supply is to smooth the prices of strong measures，In the situation of land resources, before，The government should guide developers to build more small family、Economical housing，Meet the common housing more family needs。

　　总之，我们需要的房地产市场运行特征应该是成交量的上升以及房价的稳中有降。

In short，We need real estate market operation characteristics should be volume up and house prices steady reduction。

　　（作者单位：上海财经大学小企业融资研究中心）

（The author unit：Shanghai university of finance and economics research center of financing for small businesses）