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一周楼市:涨价压力蔓延 或致楼市政策再收紧--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-27
中新网7月14日电 本周,房企陆续发布上半年销售业绩。而得益于年初以来楼市政策微调,以及开发企业“以价跑量”,整体房地产市场成交量得以逐步复苏,并且呈现出“回暖”的行情。从已公布的数据看,大部分房企都交出了靓丽的“中考”答卷,不仅有不少房企已经完成全年50%的目标或接近完成50%,有的房企还明确上调年度销售目标。
Beijing July 14 dec This week,Room in enterprises issued sales performance in the first half。Since the beginning of the property market and benefit from fine-tuning,And the development of enterprise“The price is to run”,Overall, the volume of the real estate market to gradually recovery,And present a“warmed”prices。From already published data to see,Most enterprises are handing over the distribution of beautiful beautiful“tests”answers,Not only have a lot of room enterprises have completed annual 50% target or close to complete 50%,Some room enterprises clearly raised the annual sales target。
随着中海保利等房企上半年业绩过半,加上当前房地产市场成交放量,与此同时,房地产信托重启,南北“地王”再现,涨价压力开始在市场蔓延。不过,虽然刚需市场回暖减轻了部分库存压力,但是库存仍处高位,特别是下半年还将有大量新货上市,大部分房企仍将采取跑量为主的策略,也有房企明确表示:不会盲目涨价。
As China poly enterprises such as the first half performance more than half room,With the current real estate market tumbled to clinch a deal,At the same time,Real estate trusts to restart,North and south“royal”reproduce,Prices began to spread in the market pressure。but,Although just need to reduce some of the stock market warms up the pressure,But the stock remained high place,Especially the second half will also have a large new goods on the market,Most enterprises will still take devote run mainly of strategy,Also has the room enterprises make it clear:Don't blindly prices。
7月13日 广州日报:弱市回暖去库存仍是首位 房企不会盲目涨价 July 13, guangzhou daily:Weak city warmed to inventory is still the first room don't blindly high price
最近密集发布的房企半年业绩快报中,中海已完成全年计划的80%,越秀地产已经完成全年计划的七成。房企的半年业绩给日渐回暖的房地产市场更添一抹亮色。
Recently released by the dense room enterprises in half a year performance letters,China has completed 80% of the annual plan,Yuexiu real estate has completed seventy percent of the annual plan。Room of half a year to increasingly high performance reverting to the real estate market more add with light color。
而土地市场也是节节开花,特别是广州、北京南北地王的出现让土地市场突然升温。诸多消息让人不由得担心,房企是不是已缓过来,下半年是不是会涨价?
And the land market also is rising to blossom,Especially guangzhou、Beijing north and south of you have made the land market warms up suddenly。Many news that cannot help to worry,Room enterprises is already slow to come over,If the second half price?
上半年满目都是“降价压力”,而在近期,市场信息更是显示“降价压力几乎为零”。年初,开发商所指定的年度策略是以跑量为先,那下半年这一策略是否发生了变化?
Things are in the first half“Reduction pressure”,And in recent,Market information is displayed“Price pressure is almost zero”。early,Developers designated by the annual strategy is run quantity first,The second half of this strategy is changed?
保利已经连接三个月月度业绩近百亿,相关人士表示,保利下半年继续优先走量,同时考虑利润,“我们一直是紧跟着市场走,不会盲目涨价。”
Poly have been connected three months monthly performance nearly,Officials said,The second half of priority is to continue poly walk,Considering the profits,“We've been following the market is going,Don't blindly prices。”
不过,市场的确已经发生了变化。几乎每个开发商都表示,市场的销售上来了。但事实上并不是所有开发商都卖得同样的好。在调控过程中,市场的分化已经相当严重,差距进一步拉开。
but,In the market has changed。Almost every developers have said,Market sales has come。But in fact and not all developers the same good they sell out。In the control process,The differentiation of the market has been quite serious,Gap to open。
来克尔瑞数据研究中心报告显示,在当前市场环境下,大型标杆房企的销售优势越发明显。而中小房企由于品牌、资源、融资、战略、人才等方面的相对落后,市场份额逐渐缩小。数据显示,2012年上半年全国前十名企业销售金额集中度达到16.17%。
To Kerr red data center report,In the current market environment,Large enterprises selling advantage of benchmarking room more obvious。And little because of enterprise brand、resources、financing、strategy、Talent is relatively backward,Market share gradually narrowed。Data shows,In the first half of 2012 the national top ten enterprise sales amount concentration reached 16.17%。
同时,在销售面积榜中,2012年上半年前十名企业销售面积集中度同比增加了2.19个百分点,结合企业销售金额集中度来看,企业业绩与规模稳步上升。
At the same time,In sales area in the list,In the first half of 2012 top 10 enterprise sales area of concentration went up 2.19%,Combined with the company sales amount concentration and see,Enterprise performance and scale rise steadily。
虽然销售回暖,但是房地产的融资环境并没有完全改善。
Although sales warmed,But real estate financing environment and not fully improved。
7月12日 人民日报:房企炒作地王误导预期推高房价 July 12,, the People's Daily:Room enterprises hype royal misleading expected high prices push北京万柳地块竞拍7月10日进行。不出业内预期,这个地块最终以上限成交,成为了新的地王。
Beijing wanliu land auctions on 10 July。Don't expect the industry,This plot eventually above limit clinch a deal,To become the new king。
虽然这块地王与以往不同,限定土地竞拍上限、配建保障房等要求都约束了土地价格无限上涨。但在楼市回暖的种种论调下,“地王”二字还是极大挑动了公众的神经。
Although the royal differs from the past,Limited land auctions upper limit、PeiJian security requirements such as room of all the land prices rising infinite constraints。But in the property market warms up in the various arguments,“royal”Two words or great stirred up nerve of the public。
实际上,最近关于地王的提法并不罕见。但是,对于这些地王并不能一概而论。对于土地价格与价值相差不远、对整体房价带动效应不大的所谓地王,只是土地市场的正常表现,不必过多解读,更不必过度担忧。
In fact,Lately about the formulation of star is not uncommon。but,For these royal and cannot treat as the same。For the land price and value are not、For the whole house prices driving effects of the star is called,Just of land market of normal performance,Don't have too much reading,More don't have to worry too much。
需要强调的是,商品房也是商品,没有永远上涨的商品才是合理的市场逻辑。具体在楼市中,2009年、2010年产生的地王,并不都成为了楼王。事实上,因为土地价格高昂,楼市遇冷而夭折的地王也不鲜见。
Need to be emphasized,Commodity house is also a commodity,No forever rising commodity is reasonable market logic。The housing of concrete,2009 years、2010 the royal produced,Not all became king of building。In fact,Because of the high price of land,Housing encounter cold and die young star of not rarely seen。
在当下的环境中,可怕的是借“土地回暖”的势头,一些房企加大土地投机的力度,媒体自觉不自觉炒作地王,给地王打上楼王的标签,插上楼王的翅膀,误导消费预期,从而推高房地产价格,影响调控大局。
In the current environment,Terrible through“Land warmed”momentum,Some room enterprises increase the strength of land speculation,The media hype you consciously or unconsciously,You play upstairs to the king's label,In the wings of the king went upstairs,Mislead the consumer expectations,To push the high real estate prices,Affect overall control。
不给地王插上楼王的翅膀,一方面,需要媒体加强责任意识。尤其是在“房地产市场信息比较混乱,市场对房价走势的预期出现一些变化,群众普遍担心房价反弹”的当下,不要拿个别地王价格与当下楼市进行简单对照。毕竟,土地变高楼,有一段时间周期;地王和楼王,也不能完全画上等号。
Don't give up the wings of the king in royal,On the one hand,Need to strengthen media responsibility consciousness。Especially in“The real estate market information chaos,The market prices of the trend is expected to appear some changes,The widespread concern about house prices rebound”Right now,Don't take the property market price and individual royal simple controls。After all,Land become tall buildings,There was a time period;Royal and floor wang,Can not be completely picture of equality。
另一方面,需要进一步遏制土地市场的投机行为,调整房地产开发结构。对个别“楼王企业”,专注于“重点城市”高端地产,频频拿下地王,各地政府在调控时应该有所侧重。
On the other hand,Need further curb land market speculation,Real estate development structure adjustment。For individual“Floor wang enterprise”,Focus on“Major cities”High-end real estate,Frequently star scored,Governments around the world in the regulation should has the stress。
防止错误信息干扰楼市,请从别让人们产生“楼王拿地王,地王将变成新楼王”的联想开始。
To prevent false information interference in the sector,Please don't let people from production“Floor wang take you,You will become a new king”Association began to。
7月11日 中国证券报:北京新"地王"楼面价破"4万" 房企资金面缓解? July 11, Chinese stock certificate report:Beijing new"royal"Floor price break"40000" Room on the financing side enterprises to alleviate?盛夏的北京燥热难耐,土地市场的成交热情也如天气一般急速升温。在7月10日举行的北京市海淀区万柳地区居住用地拍卖现场,中赫置地旗下的北京赫华恒瑞房地产开发有限公司以26.3亿元的总价摘得该地块,其中回购房竞拍面积达到16400平方米。据业内人士测算,该地块的楼面地价已经突破4万元,约为4.15万元,成为北京新单价地王。
The Beijing summer hot and unbearable,Clinch a deal of land market of enthusiasm such as the weather warms up general rapidly。The July 10 at the haidian district, Beijing wanliu area live use the land auction site,Also in the HeHua Beijing under the hittites HengRui real estate development Co., LTD. With 2.63 billion yuan price won this plot,Among them back to purchase auctions area 16400 square meters。According to industry estimates,This plot floor price has been over 40000 yuan,About 41500 yuan,As the Beijing new star unit price。
尽管新地王出炉,但地产业内人士仍指出,地王项目只是个别现象。由于开发商资金链回暖,对优质地块的需求增加,但对整体市场影响有限。
Although the new you come,But the real estate industry is still said,You project just individual phenomenon。As developers capital chain thaw,Increased the demand for high quality plot,But a limited impact on the whole market。
“这个地块的位置和品质确实比较好,不过价位还是有点高了。”现场参与竞价的一位房企负责人在接受中国证券报记者采访时直言,“这个价位肯定有开发压力。我们在举牌的时候有心理价位,这个价位肯定超过了我们的心理预期,甚至有点不可理喻。”而中国证券报记者也注意到,该公司在竞拍回购房面积时只举牌到约3900平方米后便不再出手。
“The plot of the position and quality is really good,But the price is still a little high。”The scene in a room of contest of enterprises in China's stock certificate report of accept reporter to interview the truth,“This price must have development pressure。We in the CARDS for a psychological price,This price must be more than we expected,Even a little unreasonable。”And China's stock certificate report also pay attention to reporters,The company in bid back to the area that buy a card to only for about 3900 square meters and no longer make moves。
链家地产市场部陈雪表示,如果考虑到高达16400平方米的政府回购房,以及后期可能存在的各种建安、财务、管理成本,未来该地块开盘预售项目仅成本就可能接近6万元/平方米。“未来项目开盘价格要在8万元以上,而且还不考虑由于16400平方米回购房带来的机会收益损失。”陈雪坦言。
Real estate ChenXue marketing chain home said,If consider to be as much as 16400 square meters of government back to the house,And later the possible fabrication、financial、Management cost,The future of this plot to open to booking project cost is only open quotation could be close to 60000 yuan/square metre。“Future projects to open quotation price is in 80000 yuan of above,But also don't consider because 16400 square meters back to purchase opportunities brought income loss。”ChenXue said。
对于此次高价拿地,万柳地块新东家中赫置地CEO孙鹏发表声明称,中赫在竞标之前,已作过精细测算,对该项目中赫只追求合理利润。
For the high price to take,Wanliu plot new east home Hector running his CEO issued a statement that said,In bid before the hittites,Already done fine estimates,In the project of Hector only for reasonable profit。
孙鹏认为,万柳地块的价格并不能反映房地产市场的整体情况,只是北京区域市场的个别案例而已。总体而言,目前房地产宏观调控政策持续发挥作用,并且已经取得了成效,地王的出现不代表房地产市场真正出现复苏迹象,不具有普遍意义。
That his,There are the price of the land and real estate market can't reflect the overall situation,Just Beijing area of the individual case just market。overall,Real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policy last play a role,And it has made achievements,Royal appearance does not represent the real estate market appears real signs of recovery,Don't of general significance。
“万柳地块出让的价格并不代表整体土地市场情况,主要还是因为房地产企业资金面缓解后,对优质地块的需求增加。”张大伟表示,对目前北京五环外住宅市场已经占据80%成交的郊区化现状而言,万柳地块的直接影响不会太大。
“The price of the land there doesn't mean the whole land market conditions,Largely because of real estate enterprise financing area after ease,Increased the demand for high quality plot。”ZhangDaWei said,The five rings on the Beijing housing market has 80% of the current situation in suburbanization clinch a deal,The immediate impact will not be wanliu plot is too big。
7月10日 中国新闻网:全国保障房开工过半 专家称可惠及城镇20%家庭 July 10, China news service:The national security room more than half experts say start can benefit 20% of family town7月9日,住房和城乡建设部发布数据称,截至今年6月底,城镇保障性安居工程已开工470万套,开工率为63%。近日,中央不断强调推进保障性安居工程的建设,并声称对发现质量问题要“零容忍”,居民保障房质量有望得到进一步的保证。同时,专家称“十二五”期间全国城镇中20%的家庭可住进保障房。
July 9,,Housing and rural construction release data says,By the end of June this year,Affordable towns living construction started 4.7 million sets,Starts to 63%。recently,The central constantly stressed how the construction of the project of security,And to find quality problem to claims“Zero tolerance”,Residents security room quality is expected to be further assurance。At the same time,Experts say“1025”In the town of 20% during the family can live in security room。
中新网房产频道在住建部网站看到,截至6月底,城镇保障性安居工程已开工470万套,开工率为63%,基本建成260万套,完成投资5070亿元。而一个月前的数据显示为已开工346万套,开工率仅为46.4%,一个月的时间开工量达到124万套。对此,中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌认为,“一般下半年开工量会多一些,如今上半年刚刚过半,而开工量已经超过一半,按照这个进度完成全年任务应该不成问题。”
Beijing real estate channel in live JianBu web site to see,By the end of June,Affordable towns living construction started 4.7 million sets,Starts to 63%,Basically completed 2.6 million sets,Completed investment of 507 billion yuan。But a month before the show for the data has commenced 3.46 million sets,Starts is only 46.4%,A month of time KaiGongLiang level of 1.24 million。this,China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang think,“General KaiGongLiang second half will more..,Now more than half just in the first half,And KaiGongLiang has more than half,According to this schedule to complete annual task this should not be a problem。”
据了解,从2011年起,我国进入了保障性住房建设“加速跑”阶段。“十二五”期间全国计划新建保障性住房3600万套,2011年年底前1000万套保障房已经如期开工建设。2012年,全国计划新开工城镇保障性安居工程700万套以上,基本建成500万套。
According to understand,Since 2011,China's entry into the construction of affordable housing“sprints”stage。“1025”The national plan during new affordable housing 36 million sets,By the end of 2011 of 10 million security room has to start construction as scheduled construction。2012 years,The national planning new start town supportability project how more than 7 million sets,Basically completed 5 million sets。
目前,包括北京、天津、南京、海口等地保障房建设都取得了阶段性进展。各地保障房建设快马加鞭,全国保障房与商品房的比例是多少,未来覆盖范围有多大呢?
At present,Including Beijing、tianjin、nanjing、Haikou, security room construction are made staggered progress。Ensure all over the room construction to race,The national security room and commodity house how much is scale,How much coverage of the future?
王珏林表示,“据估算,实际竣工的保障房面积和套数大约占商品房比例在1/3左右。”而去年夏季达沃斯论坛上,国家总理温家宝曾特别指出,全国城镇保障性住房覆盖面要达到20%。
WangJueLin said,“According to estimation,The actual completed guarantee room area and a cycle of about of the commodity house proportion in about one third。”And last summer on davos BBS,Prime minister wen jiabao have special said,The national town coverage affordable housing should reach 20%。
顾云昌同时表示,到目前为止城镇人口有7%-8%住进了各类保障性住房,经过“十二五”期间的努力,完成3600万套保障房的建设后,城镇中20%的家庭要住进保障房,这是未来几年保障房建设总的目标。
GuYunChang also said,So far, 7%-8% of the urban population live in all kinds of affordable housing,after“1025”Efforts during the,Complete 36 million sets of room of security after the construction,20% of the town family to live in security room,This is the future years guarantee room construction general goal。
7月9日 新京报:专家称若全国房价大幅反弹 或致楼市政策再收紧 On July 9, the Beijing news:Experts say that if the national house prices rebound sharply or the property market tightening policy again6月的楼市,出现了几个月来的首次上涨。与此同时,降价楼盘依然是销售主流。在部分城市,6月的楼市“火爆”不仅体现在成交量,也体现在价格上。专家分析称,“倘若出现全国范围内的房价大幅度反弹,并不排除调控政策会继续收紧。”7月7日,国务院总理温家宝在江苏常州市调研时强调,决不能让房价反弹,造成功亏一篑。
June in the housing market,Appeared for the first time a few months to rise。At the same time,Price is still building sales mainstream。In parts of the city,June in the housing market“hot”Not only embodies in volume,Also reflected in the price。Expert analysis says,“If appear nationwide house prices rebounded significantly,Does not rule out control policy will continue to tighten。”July 7,The state council premier wen jiabao stressed in jiangsu changzhou investigation,Never let the house prices rebound,Cause failed。
中国指数研究院近日发布的6月份“百城价格指数”显示,全国100个城市的住宅均价结束自2011年9月以来连续9个月的环比下跌态势,其中45个城市出现环比上涨。
China index academy of released recently in June“Hundred cities price index”shows,The country's 100 city housing average end since September 2011 for nine months down the annulus trend,Including 45 a city rising appear annulus。
比统计数据更能直观反映市场现状的是单个楼盘的销售情况。7月3日,记者随机调查武汉10家楼盘价格。其中,与一周前相比,降价楼盘1个,涨价楼盘5个。其中涨价幅度最大的每平方米上调了2400元。
More intuitive than statistics reflect the current situation of the market is a single building dish on sale。On July 3,,Reporter random survey wuhan 10 buildings prices。Among them,Compared with a week ago,Building a price cut,Prices five buildings。Among them the mark-up of the largest raised 2400 yuan per square meter。
中国指数研究院分析认为,在信贷放松及一些地方微调楼市政策的影响下,二季度以来,重点城市商品住宅成交量明显回升,部分城市甚至出现了抢购的恐慌情绪,部分房企趁机提价,与“房价合理回归”相悖而行。
China index academy that analysis,In some places to relax credit and fine-tune property market under the influence of policy,Since the second quarter,Key city, the volume of commodity residential house rebounded somewhat,Parts of the city and even appeared to snap up panic,Part of the room enterprises took the opportunity to raise prices,and“House prices reasonable return”Abhorrent and do。
“倘若出现全国范围内的房价大幅度反弹,并不排除调控政策会继续收紧。”张东指出,如果三季度价格出现反弹,并且反弹的幅度超出市场承受范围,可能会引出新的调控政策。“中央调控房价的决心非常坚定,调控政策将根据市场的动态变化适时调整,对于合理性住房需求和投资性需求,分别实施更精细化的政策措施。”
“If appear nationwide house prices rebounded significantly,Does not rule out control policy will continue to tighten。”Zhangdong points out that,If third quarter prices rebounded,And the range of the rebound exceeded the market limits,May be breaking new control policies。“The central control property prices determination very firm,According to the market control policy will be the dynamic changes of the timely adjust,For housing demand and investment demand rationality,More intensification of implementation respectively policy measures。”
武汉亿房网研究中心研究员陈龙认为,目前的购房主体以刚性需求为主,投资投机性需求尚未大量入市,对楼市价格的推动力有限。而且,许多刚需属于恐慌性需求,并非实质性需求,房价并无大幅反弹的市场条件。
Wuhan hundred million FangWang research center minkovitz researchers think,At present main body to purchase of the rigid demands,Investment has not been a large speculative demand market,About the housing prices, the driving force。and,Many just need to belong to panic demand,Is not substantial demand,House prices and no rebound sharply market conditions。
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