正在举行的“2012年秋季南京房地产展示交易会”首次新闻发布会上，江苏省房协房地产研究所所长、三六五地产研究院院长李智分析了未来市场走势，他认为目前的楼市依然处于“筑底期”，在南京这种属于高校城市化的城市中，刚需买房需求旺盛因此成交量也逐步飙升，而接下来的金九银十改善型购房者不太可能会大批量入市，房价大涨的行情不会出现，对购房者来说“入市时间”到了。

Are having at the“Fall 2012 nanjing real estate exhibitions”The first news conference，Jiangsu province room, director of real estate association、The 365 real estate research institute President li zhi analyzes the future market trends，He thought that the present in the housing market is still in“The building of”，The urbanization in nanjing university in city belongs to，Just need to buy a house demand so volumes are also soaring gradually，And the next jin jiuyin 10 of the person that buy a house to improve is less likely to mass market，House prices surged to an option does not arise，To the person that buy a house is“Entry time”to。

　　从数据来看，住宅上半年比去年上半年上升58%，而二手房同比则下降13%左右，旧房源没有得到一个释放，通过调查发映出二手房源成交的买房人类型发现，购买学区买房的改善型人群逐渐增加，刚需是新房市场的主要力量而改善、刚改则成为购买二手房的主要力量，为小孩为老人而买房，这批客群未来将成为市场的一个重要支撑。

From the data to see，In the first half of house than in the first half of last year, up 58%，And secondhand the room up is by about 13%，Old houses didn't get a release，Through the investigation of the secondhand source mirrors hair clinch a deal to buy room person to type found，Buy a house to improve school district of the crowd to increase gradually，Just need to be new home market the main strength and improve、Just change becomes the main power buy secondhand room，For children and buy a house for the old man，This batch of guest group of the future will be one of the most important market support。

　　从卖方的心态来看，有很大一部比例是改善，卖房子的目的是为了改善居住，只有1套卖掉之后购买第二套，手上有2套房子被限购了卖掉再买，为了改善而卖房的改善型比例也呈现逐步上升的比例。改善型客户随着市场好转有入市的倾向，换房比例也很高。

From the seller attitude and see，Have a large proportion is improved，Sell a house goal is to improve living，Only one set of sell for a second set of after，Hands were two sets of the house was 限购 sell and buy，In order to improve and the improvement of the house type proportional also presents the rising gradually ratio。Improve customer with a better market of the tendency of entry，Move rooms proportion is also very high。

　　对市场的总体判断便是依然是筑底期。目前的房地产发展模式并没有发生根本性变化，保障房不能对号入座，年轻人没有保障房的承诺只能去买商品房，我所要的房子和能买的房子，买房大军仍然没有变；土地只涨不跌，房价的预期不会发生变化。对于投资和投机没有重拳出击。现在房地产调控，手里面有两套房子的人，原来的房子不会出来，通过限购的方式来压制投资投机需求，长期来看应该转化成不敢投资。

The overall judgment of market is still is the period up。The current real estate development models did not change radically，Security room can't accordingly，Young people are not guarantee the commitment of the room only to buy commercial houses，What I want to buy a house and the house，Buy a house army remains unchanged；Only a land not fall，House prices expected no change。For investment and speculative no reaches out。Now the real estate regulation，Hand inside have two sets of house，The original house won't come out，Through the 限购 way to suppress investment speculative demand，The long term should be transformed into can't investment。

　　目前看到的开发商的心态已经发生变化，对调控政策的态度有所变化。第一种央企，痛并快乐着，这轮熬过来之后绝对是有利的，如上半年销售比较好的中海，有些开发商会出具对他来说是好事；第二种没有深陷到调控泥潭中的类品牌开发商，心态比较好隔岸观火;第三种是摩拳擦掌，准备下半年大干一场。

See now, the developer of the state of mind has been changing，To control the attitude of the policy change。The first kind of scholars from renmin，Pain and was happy，This round after through over absolute is favorable，If sales better China in the first half，Some development chamber of commerce issue for him is a good thing；The second kind of no deeper into the mire regulation of brand developers，Mentality is better on the fence;The third kind of for a fight，The second half of a ready to rock。

　　在发展模式不变的情况下，政策不会松、价格可能不会跌两种形态僵持在一起，改善型购房客群如何破局，对房地产的理解是不多的买房决策并不专业，刚需刚改的客群不得不买会入市有时间紧迫感，而大多数改善型客户没有时间紧迫感，是非常犹豫的状态。哪些因素会使改善下决定，第一个朋友买房示范，第二个房地产广告效应，很多情况下大家都很漠然，没有一定的计划和经验。换房应该怎么换，把老房子卖掉找到新的房子，可能会手续繁琐直接退却，这几个动作里面就像走路先买左腿先迈右腿。李智建议，换房应该先去找新房子再去卖老房子，这样出发点会更确认，否则会半途而废。买房要花2-3个月的时间，先要看新房，有了目标才能找到更好的房子。

In the development model under the condition of invariable，Policy will not loose、Prices may not fall in two forms stalemate together，Improve the customers to buy type how inning，To the understanding of the real estate is not much to buy a house decision is not professional，Just need to just change of customers will have to buy entry time urgency，While most customers have no time to improve type sense of urgency，The state is very hesitant。What are the factors that would improve decision，The first friend to buy a house demonstration，The second real estate advertisement effect，Many cases are all very cold，No certain plan and experience。Move rooms should be how to change，The old house sell find new house，May be tedious formalities directly retreat，These a few movements inside like walking buy first left leg first Wallace right leg。Li zhi Suggestions，Move rooms should be first go looking for a new house to MaiLao house，So the starting point will be more confirmation，Otherwise you will stop halfway。Buy a house to take two to three months，First to see new，The goal is to find a better house。

　　此次房展会上我们也有换房一条龙的活动，“目前市场依然处于筑底期，什么时间买不重要，买什么样的房子最重要”，选房很重要，时机不重要，李智分析，应该花很多时间去选房而并不是买房，“目前买房时间到了，改善需求没有大批量入市的情况下，价格不会出现大幅回升”。（365地产家居网 贾丛）

The meeting, we also have had a move rooms of the activities，“At present the market was still in the period up，What time buy not important，Buy what kind of house is the most important”，Choose room is very important，Time not important，Li zhi analysis，Should spend a lot of time to choose a room and not buy a house，“At present time to buy a house，Improve without large quantities of entering the market demand，The price will not face a pick up”。（365 real estate home JuWang JiaCong）