二、 东、中、西部比较

two、 east、in、West is

　　（一）总体比较：6月西部城市反弹力度远大于东、中部城市

（a）General comparison：June rebound strength in western cities far east、Central city

　　6月份，东、中、西部城市住宅成交面积环比增幅分别为10.5%、13.4%与18.0%，同比增幅分别为35.5%、29.0%与103.2%。如下图所示，东、中、西部典型城市的成交量变化方向基本同步，2012年1月3个地区典型城市的成交量同时创下2009年来历史新低，又同时在2月份开始出现反弹的趋势，4月冲高回落后连续两个月回升。6月西部地区反弹力度最大，成交量创下近17个月新高，环比同比增幅均最为明显，原因之一是西部地区去年同期成交量处于历史低位，市场表现较差，而同期东、中部则强于西部。

June，east、in、The western city residential area of annulus comparing growth clinch a deal are 10.5%、13.4% and 18.0%，Respectively year-on-year rate of increase of 35.5%、29.0% and 103.2%。As below，east、in、The western typical cities volume change direction basic synchronization，3 January 2012 in a typical cities in the volume of sales and set 2009 years record lows，And at the same time in February began to appear the bounce of the trend，April rushed back high after two consecutive months to bounce back。June in the western region of the most aggressive rebound，Volume set almost 17 months high，Annulus comparing year-on-year rate of increase are the most obvious，One reason is the western region, the volume of the same period last year in historical low，Poor market performance，Over the same period, the east、Is stronger than the west central。

　　图3 东、中、西部典型城市商品住宅成交量走势

Figure 3 east、in、The western typical cities commodity residential volume trends

　　（二）东部城市：成交价创历史新高

（two）The eastern city of：Clinch a deal valence a record

　　6月份，东部典型城市商品住宅成交面积环比增长10.5%，同比增长35.5%，较5月再次大幅上涨，创下近17个月新高。近两月的成交量已经全面超越了10年和11年的月均水平，事实上目前市场可以说已经接近本轮限购政策出台前的水平。

June，The eastern typical cities commodity residential area increased by 10.5% month-on-month clinch a deal，Year-on-year growth of 35.5%，More may rise sharply again，Set in 17 months high。Nearly two months in the volume of sales have full beyond for 10 years and 11 years of the average monthly level，In fact at present the market can say has been close to this 限购 policies to the level before。

　　成交均价方面，环比增长6.6%，同比增长7.3%，自2011年以来东部地区典型城市成交均价首次超过13000元/平方米，再创历史新高。成交均价稳步上升趋势明显，整体来看，今年上半年行情回暖，市场活跃度明显好于去年。

The price of，Annulus comparing growth of 6.6%，Year-on-year growth of 7.3%，Since 2011 the eastern region typical cities for the first time the price of more than 13000 yuan/square metre，Hit a record high。The price rise steadily trend is obvious，The whole，In the first half of this year market buoyancy，Market is active degree was significantly better than last year。

　　图4 东部典型城市商品住宅成交走势

Figure 4 typical eastern city clinch a deal the commodity residential house movements

　　（二）中部城市：创下近18个月新高

（two）Central city：In the past 18 months high

　　6月份，中部典型城市商品住宅成交面积环比增长13.4% ，同比增长29.0%,创下近18个月新高。与东部城市相似，近两月的成交量也已经全面超越了10年和11年的月均水平，已经回归到本轮限购政策出台前的水平。

June，Typical commodity residential house in central city area increased by 13.4% month-on-month clinch a deal ，Year-on-year growth of 29.0%,In the past 18 months high。And the eastern city of similar，Nearly two months in the volume of sales have also full beyond for 10 years and 11 years of the average monthly level，Have to return to this 限购 policies to the level before。

　　成交均价方面，环比增长0.3%，同比下降4.6%。中部典型城市成交均价在2011年9月达到历史高点后，开始缓慢下滑，至今仍然处于下滑通道之中，2012年上半年波动幅度较小，5、6月基本持平。

The price of，Annulus comparing growth of 0.3%，4.6% year-on-year drop。The central typical cities the price in September 2011 after reached record high，Began to slow down，Still in the decline of channels，In the first half of 2012 small fluctuations，5、June is flat。

　　图5 中部典型城市商品住宅成交走势

Figure 5 typical commodity residential house in central city clinch a deal the trend

　　6月份，西部典型城市商品住宅成交面积环比增长18.0%，同比增长103.2%，创下近18个月新高。与东、中部城市相似，近两月的成交量也已经全面超越了10年和11年的月均水平，接近本轮限购政策出台前的水平。

June，The western typical cities commodity residential area increased by 18.0% month-on-month clinch a deal，Year-on-year growth of 103.2%，In the past 18 months high。And east、Central city similar，Nearly two months in the volume of sales have also full beyond for 10 years and 11 years of the average monthly level，Close to this 限购 policies to the level before。

　　成交均价方面，6月份成交均价环比下降0.04%，同比下降1.8%。从2011年2月份开始，成交均价开始出现波浪式下行，2012年2月份之后，出现明显反弹，5、6月份成交均价都超过了2011年的平均水平。

The price of，In June the price dropped by 0.04% month-on-month，1.8% year-on-year drop。From February 2011 began，The price rises began to appear the downside，2012 years after the February，Significant rebound，5、In June, the price is more than the 2011 average。

　　图6 西部典型城市商品住宅成交走势

Figure 6 western typical cities clinch a deal the commodity residential house movements

　　（一）总体比较：5、6月一线城市反弹力度大于二线、三线城市

（a）General comparison：5、June a line rebound strength greater than 2 line city、Three city

　　6月份，一、二、三线城市商品住宅成交量环比增幅分别为15%、12.9%与12.7%，同比增幅分别为42.6%、47.8%与53.9%。三种类型城市成交走势基本同步，均在2012年2月份开始进入上行通道，至今仍处于上行通道之中， 其中一线城市的环比连续2个月领先于二、三线城市，回暖趋势更加显著。

June，a、two、Three city commodity residential house were 15% month-on-month growth volume、12.9% and 12.7%，Respectively year-on-year rate of increase of 42.6%、47.8% and 53.9%。Three types of city movements basic synchronization clinch a deal，All in February 2012 began to enter into the uplink channel，Still in the uplink channel in， One line of city annulus comparing two consecutive lead at 2、Three city，Thaw trend even more significant。

　　图7 一、二、三线城市商品住宅成交量走势

Figure 7 a、two、Three city commodity residential volume trends

　　6月份，一线城市商品住宅成交量环比增长15.0%，同比增长42.6%，创下近18个月的新高。由于一线城市市场需求去年被严重积压，因而在今年政策环境逐步放松的情况下，其市场率先回暖。

June，A city, the volume of commodity residential house month-on-month growth of 15.0%，Year-on-year growth of 42.6%，In the past 18 months of high。Due to a city market demand last year by the serious backlog，So this year in the policy environment gradually relaxed，The market to take the lead in thaw。

　　成交均价方面，环比增长8.4%，同比增长6.9%，创下2012年新高。6月份价格较5月明显上扬，主要因为市场有好转趋势后，6月份开发商打折促销的力度较5月有所减弱，部分前期超跌的项目房价回涨之势有所扩散，预计未来市场依然以“低价成交”为主，但降价力度会逐渐减小。

The price of，Annulus comparing growth of 8.4%，Year-on-year growth of 6.9%，A record of 2012。In June, the price is may rise significantly，Mainly because the market has improved after the trend，June is the strength of the developers offered discounts on May wane，The early part of the project HuiZhang house prices dropped the potential to spread，With the expected future market still“Low clinchs a deal”primarily，But the price cut will gradually decrease efforts。

　　图8 一线城市商品住宅成交走势

Figure 8 a line city clinch a deal the commodity residential house movements

　　6月份，二线典型城市商品住宅成交量环比增长12.9%，同比增长47.8%，创下近17个月新高。随着2012年二季度政策面的逐步趋缓，二线城市被积压需求在今年5月以来得以持续释放，预计市场下半年仍将有较大的上行潜力。

June，Second line typical cities, the volume of commodity residential house annulus comparing growth of 12.9%，Year-on-year growth of 47.8%，Set in 17 months high。With the 2012 in the second quarter of the policy gradually slowing，Second city was in May this year the backlog requirements since continues to release，The second half of the market is expected to have large will still up potential。

　　成交均价方面，环比增长0.9%，同比下降1.9%，与5月基本持平。事实上， 2011年4月份开始，成交均价处于波浪式上行的阶段，2012年上半年整体处于平台整理阶段。预计7-8月份的波动幅度也不会太大，延续震荡整理的趋势。

The price of，Annulus comparing growth of 0.9%，1.9% year-on-year drop，And may flat。In fact， Beginning in April 2011，The price rises up in the stage，In the first half of 2012 the overall in the platform arrangement stage。7-August is expected to range also too won't big，Continue the trend of concussion arrangement。

　　图9 二线城市商品住宅成交走势

Figure 9 second city commodity residential clinch a deal the trend

　　6月份，三线典型城市商品住宅成交量环比增长12.7%，同比增长53.9%，，创下近17个月新高。整体来看，2012年上半年，三线城市成交表现好于2011年同期，原因是三线城市前期，尤其是2010年市场发展过快，需求被过度消耗，因此2011年整体情况比较差。

June，Three line typical cities commodity residential volume growth of 12.7% in the annulus，Year-on-year growth of 53.9%，，Set in 17 months high。The whole，In the first half of 2012，Three line city better than in clinch a deal the same period in 2011，The reason is the city three line，Especially the 2010 market development too fast，Demand by excessive consumption，So in 2011 the overall situation is poorer。

　　三线城市6月份成交均价环比下降2.2%，同比增长1.8%。相对而言，三线城市受楼市调控的影响较小，成交均价长期以来处于稳中有升的态势。6月均价较5月有所回落，但依然处于高位，可见三线城市楼市的抗跌性较强，在严峻的市场环境下，依旧保持在上行通道之中。

Three city June the price dropped by 2.2% month-on-month，Year-on-year growth of 1.8%。relatively，Three line by regulation of the property market city little influence，The price for a long time in the situation better progressly。June is average may easing，But still high，Visible, three lines of sex of city property market fall is stronger，In the severe market environment，Still keep the uplink channel in。

　　图10 三线城市商品住宅成交走势

Figure 10 three line city clinch a deal the commodity residential house movements

　　备注：本文主要利用中国房产信息集团数据进行分析。根据样本的可得性，选取了30个典型城市进行样本研究，分别为：北京、上海、深圳、广州、天津、大连、南京、青岛、沈阳、东莞、佛山、泉州、南昌、长沙、太原、武汉、郑州、合肥、长春、芜湖、洛阳、岳阳、成都、西安、南宁、兰州、绵阳、包头、贵阳、昆明。其中，按地域划分，东部城市12个，中部城市10个，西部城市8个；按发展水平划分，一线城市4个，二线城市16个，三线城市10个。

note：This paper mainly using China's real estate information group data analysis。According to the sample availability，Select the 30 typical cities study samples，Respectively for：Beijing、Shanghai、shenzhen、guangzhou、tianjin、dalian、nanjing、Qingdao、shenyang、The dongguan、foshan、quanzhou、nanchang、changsha、taiyuan、wuhan、zhengzhou、hefei、changchun、wuhu、luoyang、yueyang、chengdu、xian、nanning、lanzhou、mianyang、baotou、guiyang、kunming。Among them，According to the regional division，The eastern city of 12，The central city 10，Eight western city；According to the development level division，A city four，Second city 16，Three line 10 cities。