Ysc绘（人民图片）

Ysc draw（People's pictures）

　　核心阅读

Core reading

　　如果现阶段放松调控，重新走上过度依赖房地产拉动GDP的老路，短期内可能会对经济增长起到刺激作用，长期看则无异于饮鸩止渴。持续这样的发展模式，会导致实体经济不振，产业结构调整迟迟无法推进，对于经济的长期伤害远大于短期拉动。

If present relaxation regulation，Back on excessive dependence on real estate pull GDP made，The short term may play a stimulating effect on economic growth，The remedy is worse than the long run it is。Continue this model of development，Will be in solid economic malaise，Industrial structure adjustment slowly was unable to push forward，Long-term damage to the economy than short-term pulling。

　　楼市调控愈加艰难

Property market regulation more difficult

　　一些地方试图放松调控的愿望十分强烈，市场正走向全面回暖

Some local tried to relax the regulation of desire is very strong，The market is toward full thaw

　　“经济这么不景气，肯定要靠房地产来救经济。就像前两年金融危机时一样，房地产调控不可能再那么严厉了。”

“Economic so bad，Must want to rely on real estate to save the economy。As the first two years as a financial crisis，Real estate regulation could no longer so severe。”

　　“你没看见各地都在放松调控吗？估计限购也持续不了多久了。”

“Can't you see all relax regulation？Estimates for 限购 also not for long。”

　　“要买房得抓紧，房价一直在反弹，明年说不定又要暴涨。”

“Want to buy a house should，House prices have been rebound，Maybe next year and will shoot up。”

　　……

......

　　最近，在售楼处、在二手房中介，卖房的人都会对摇摆不定的购房者说这样的话。对购房者来说，经济增速下滑放松楼市调控经济企稳房价暴涨，无论从经验还是从逻辑上判断，似乎都足以令人信服。

recent，In the sales department、In secondhand the room intermediary，People will be sold to swing the person that buy a house to say such things。To the person that buy a house is，Growth fell to relax controls economic stabilising property market prices soaring，No matter from experience or logic judgment，Seems to be enough to convincing。

　　今年上半年，在经济增速放缓、不少企业盈利困难的情况下，楼市却出现了一波明显的回暖。国家统计局公布的数据显示，6月份全国70个大中城市中，有25个城市的新建商品住宅销售价格环比出现上涨，比5月份增加了19个。一、二线城市房地产市场成交量环比5月再创新高，7月份进一步延续了回暖态势。房地产贷款在连续8个季度环比回落后首次回升。这些信号都表明市场正在走向全面回暖。

In the first half of this year，In the economic growth is slowing、Many enterprise profit difficult situation，There is a wave of market obvious thaw。National bureau of statistics show，June 70 major cities across the country，There are 25 city of new commodity residential sales price annulus comparing rose，In may the increase than 19。a、Second city real estate market volume annulus comparing may hit a record high，In July, further lasted thaw situation。Real estate loans in eight consecutive quarter fell for the first time after November back。These signals are all shows that the market is toward full thaw。

　　一些地方在稳增长的压力下，试图放松调控的愿望十分强烈。今年以来，已有约40个城市出台不同程度的楼市调控微调政策，而且力度有进一步加大的趋势。

Some places in the steady growth under pressure，Try to relax the regulation of desire is very strong。Since this year，Already had about 40 cities on different levels of market regulation fine-tuning policy，And a further increase the strength of the trend。

　　市场快速回暖和政策松动，对市场预期转变的影响正逐步体现。央行发布的二季度储户问卷调查报告显示，未来一季度有意愿买房的储户占15.7%，创两年来新高。

High market warms up and policy loose，The influence of the change of market expectations are gradually reflect。Issued by the central bank in the second quarter of savers questionnaire survey report shows，The future will buy a house savers the quarter of 15.7%，And two years high。

　　中国房地产协会副会长朱中一认为，在稳增长的压力下，房地产调控面临的困难和阻力将越来越大。一方面，持续两年多的楼市调控对经济增长确实有一定影响，尤其是对房地产投资和上下游产业的影响正从各个方面体现出来，因此地方政府有放松调控的愿望和动力。另一方面，当前市场信息混乱、购房者担心房价反弹，再加上央行连续降息，降低了购房负担，许多原本观望的购房者加速出手买房，有可能让房价出现趋势性反转。

China real estate association and vice President of a thought，In steady growth under pressure，Real estate control the difficulties and resistance will more and more big。On the one hand，For more than two years of market regulation on the economic growth that have certain effect，Especially for real estate investment and upstream and downstream industry impact are reflected in all aspects，So the local government have relaxing the desire and power control。On the other hand，The current market information chaos、The person that buy a house worry about house prices rebound，Plus the central bank to slash interest rates，Reduce the burden that buy a house，Many of the person that buy a house watching originally accelerated moves to buy a house，Had the potential to trend reversal in house prices。

　　“当前正值房地产调控的关键期，形势异常严峻与复杂，虽然总体仍处于调控目标区间，但随着市场回暖压力加大，市场走势可能偏离调控目标。”中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长、“住房问题研究”课题组组长高培勇说，在经济增速放缓的背景下，当前可调控市场手段的选择范围缩窄，房地产调控将愈加艰难。

“The current real estate regulation comes as the key，The situation stiffer and complex，Although overall still in control target range，But along with the market warms up pressure increase，The market trends have lost control target。”The Chinese academy of social sciences financial strategy research institute President、“Housing research”Group leader GaoPeiYong said，In the economic slowdown in the background，The current can control the market means narrowing range of options，Real estate regulation will increasingly difficult。

　　靠救楼市稳增长无异于饮鸩止渴

By market stability is the remedy is worse than the growth save

　　坚持调控能倒逼地方将重心放在促进实体经济发展和经济结构优化上

Adhere to the regulation can DaoBi place will focus on promoting economic development and economic entity structure optimization

　　实际上，无论是担心调控会伤害经济增长，还是忧虑地方政府靠什么来发展，都是基于“经济增长应该在很大程度上依赖房地产业”这种惯性思维模式。如果现在为了稳增长而放松房地产调控，不仅房价存在大幅反弹的风险，经济结构调整也将受到重创。

In fact，Whether it will hurt economic growth worry about regulation，Or worry about the local government to rely on what，Are based on“Economic growth should depend largely on the real estate industry”The inertial thinking mode。If now for firm growth and relax real estate regulation，House prices rebounded greatly not only exist the risk，The readjustment of the economic structure will have been seriously breached。

　　朱中一认为，经过几年的调控，我们对房地产业的定位有了更科学的认识。房地产除了对经济增长和相关产业有重要拉动作用外，还负有改善普通居民住房条件、维护社会和谐稳定的重要的民生功能。尤其是现阶段，既要稳增长，又要维护社会稳定，一些地方应该转变过去的认识，更多地看到坚持调控对促进房价合理回归、改善民生的重要作用，绝不能让房价反弹，绝不能让调控出现反复。

A think zhu，After a few years of regulation，We have the orientation of the real estate industry is more scientific and understanding。Real estate in addition to economic growth and related industry has important role in boosting outside，Also have improved the ordinary citizen housing conditions、Maintain the social stability of the important function of people's livelihood。Especially at present，Both want steady growth，And to maintain social stability，Some places should change the understanding of the past，See more regulation to promote reasonable prices to return、The important role of improving the people's livelihood，Never let a house prices rebound，Never let a regulation appeared again and again。

　　上半年，全国房地产开发投资30610亿元，同比名义增长16.6%；房屋新开工面积92380万平方米，同比下降7.1%。尽管房地产调控确实是上半年经济增速出现下滑的重要原因，但也应理性看待这种“伤害”。

In the first half，The national investment in real estate development 3.061 trillion yuan，16.6% year-on-year nominal growth；New housing construction area of 923.8 million square meters，7.1% year-on-year drop。Although real estate regulation really is economic growth dropped in the first half of the important reasons，But it should also be a rational view this“damage”。

　　国务院发展研究中心有关专家认为，在坚持调控的情况下，房地产投资增速下滑在预料之中。这也是我国房地产投资增速开始进入正常回调周期的反映。预计未来几年，我国城镇住宅新开工面积、施工面积和竣工面积峰值将相继出现。投资增速出现回落也是客观的、正常的，期望房地产投资持续保持超高速增长是不现实的。

The state council development research center, experts say，On the regulation，Real estate investment growth in the expected decline。This is our real estate investment growth began to enter into the normal callback cycle reflection。The expected future years，House of our country town new commenced area、The construction area and completion of the peak area will arise。Investment growth eased back is also an objective、normal，Expect real estate investment maintain high-speed growth is not realistic。

　　“任何形式的房地产调控政策都以抑制泡沫、防止对经济波动带来过大冲击为目标，从而避免泡沫崩溃引发的经济震荡，至少以不伤害经济为底线。”国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松说，“房地产调控本身是要减少而不是增加经济波动。”

“Any form of real estate control policies are to suppress bubble、To prevent economic fluctuations too big impact for the target，To avoid bubble collapse triggered shocks，At least not to damage the economy for the bottom line。”The state council development research center, financial, deputy director of institute BaShuSong said，“Real estate regulation itself is to reduce rather than increase economic fluctuations。”

　　对一些地方而言，如果现阶段放松调控，重新走上过度依赖房地产拉动GDP的老路，短期内可能会对经济增长起到刺激作用，长期看则无异于饮鸩止渴。

For some in place，If present relaxation regulation，Back on excessive dependence on real estate pull GDP made，The short term may play a stimulating effect on economic growth，The remedy is worse than the long run it is。

　　“十一五”时期全国土地出让成交总价款累计超过7万亿元；2010年，全国国有土地使用权出让金的预算收入只有1.24万亿元，最后决算收入达到了2.82万亿元，超收126.5%，这么高的土地出让收入不可能长期持续下去。持续这样的发展模式，会导致实体经济不振，产业结构调整迟迟无法推进，对于经济的长期伤害远大于短期拉动。

“11”The national land lease period clinch a deal amount accumulative total more than 7 trillion yuan；2010 years，State-owned land access sell one's own things of the national budget income only 1.24 trillion yuan，Final accounting income reached 2.82 trillion yuan，The excess 126.5%，Such a high land transfer income cannot long continue。Continue this model of development，Will be in solid economic malaise，Industrial structure adjustment slowly was unable to push forward，Long-term damage to the economy than short-term pulling。

　　国务院发展研究中心上述专家认为，坚持调控，能在一定程度上倒逼地方将重心放在促进实体经济发展和经济结构的优化上。尽管调整结构并非一朝一夕就能完成，而且现阶段必然经历阵痛，但只有寻找新的增长点，才能推动经济更健康地发展。从某种程度上讲，我国今年把经济增长预期目标调低为7.5%，已经为房地产调控留出了空间，体现了政府坚持楼市调控、促进经济转型的决心。

The state council development research center, the experts say，Adhere to the regulation，To a certain extent DaoBi place will focus on promoting economic development and economic entity of the optimization of the structure。Although adjusting structure is not be accomplished overnight，And at this stage of the inevitable experience pain，But only looking for new growth point，To boost the economy more healthy development。In a certain sense，This year economic growth in China the expected objectives for 7.5% down，For real estate regulation has been set aside the space，Reflected the government insisted property market regulation、Promote the economic transformation of the determination。

　　寻找两难平衡点

Looking for dilemma balance point

　　如果地方政策过度松动、房价反弹风险增加，更严厉调控措施可能出台

If local policy too loose、House prices increased risk rebound，More stringent regulation measures may come

　　“第三季度可能会比较纠结。”朱中一表示，上半年经济增速已经“破8”，而楼市又在快速回暖，今后一段时间，既要防止经济进一步下滑，又要坚持房地产调控不放松、保持社会稳定，寻找两者之间的平衡点并非易事。

“The third quarter may be entanglements。”Zhu said a，Economic growth has been in the first half“Broken 8”，And the housing market and in the rapid thaw，For a time，Not only must prevent the economy from falling further，But also to adhere to the real estate regulation not to relax、Maintain social stability，Looking for a balance between the two is not easy。

　　今后一段时间，应更加注重短期调控措施与长期制度建设相结合，控房价与稳预期相结合，鼓励刚需与抑制投资投机相结合，商品房市场调控与保障房建设相结合，这样才有可能缓解当前调控面临的两难局面。

For a time，Should pay more attention to short-term and long-term measures system construction combined，Accused of house price and steady expected combined，Encourage just need to slow down investment combined with speculation，Commodity house market regulation and security room construction combined，So we have may ease the dilemma facing the current regulation。

　　北京中原地产市场研究部总监张大伟认为，短期看，要继续抑制投资投机需求，限购城市的力度不仅不应放松，甚至应该加强。在此前单个城市限购的基础上，应探索全国住房信息系统联网城市的多城市限购。

Beijing central plains real estate market research department director ZhangDaWei think，Short-term see，To continue to hamper investment speculative demand，The strength of 限购 city not only should not relax，Even should strengthen。In previous single city 限购 basis，Should explore the national housing information system of the city more than 限购 city network。

　　同时，仍应支持和鼓励自住需求、改善需求入市，促进市场稳定发展，避免大起大落，这也有利于发挥房地产业对经济增长的正常拉动作用。

At the same time，Should still support and encourage self living demand、Improve market demand，Promote the market stability and development，Avoid falling，This also is helpful for play to the real estate industry on the economic growth of the normal pull function。

　　保障房建设对调控和稳增长的作用不应忽视。朱中一表示，应稳步推进保障房建设，拓宽融资渠道，鼓励民间资本参与建设，发挥保障房惠民生、稳房价、扩内需、促发展的多重作用。在需求管理方面，应继续落实差别化信贷税收政策，坚决遏制投机投资性购房，加快推进房产税扩大试点。

Security room construction of regulation and steady growth role should not be ignored。Zhu said a，Should be steadily promoting security room construction，To broaden the financing channels，Encourage private capital in construction，Play security room huimin was born、On house prices、Expanding domestic demand、To promote the development of multiple roles。On the demand management，Should continue to implement differentiation credit tax policy，Firmly containing the speculative investment the house，Speed up the house property tax enlarge pilot。

　　调控两年多来，长效机制改革的进度仍然不尽如人意。朱中一认为，应尽快建立健全房地产市场健康运行和住房保障方面的相关法律法规；完善市场机制和制度性安排，特别是在认真总结试点城市经验的基础上，应尽早设计和建立符合我国国情、有利于遏制投机、鼓励自住和改善型需求的房地产税收制度。

Control for more than two years，Long-term mechanism of the reform progress is still not satisfactory。A think zhu，Should establish and perfect the healthy operation of real estate market and housing safeguard relevant laws and regulations；Perfecting the market mechanism and institutional arrangement，Especially in summing up based on the experience of pilot city，As early as possible should design and establish to China's national conditions、Help contain speculation、Encourage self living and improve the type of real estate tax system requirements。

　　“住房建设的中长期规划也应该抓紧出台，有利于加强政策的连续性，稳定市场预期，从而稳定市场。”朱中一说。

“Housing construction in long-term planning also should take the come，To strengthen policy continuity，Stable market expectations，To stabilize the market。”Zhu said in。

　　近两个月，住建部、国土资源部等部门连续多次表态，要坚持房地产调控相关措施不放松。国务院从7月下旬开始，派出8个督查组，对16个省市贯彻落实调控措施的情况开展专项督查。督查重点为住房限购措施、差别化信贷税收政策的执行情况和住房用地供应情况。

Nearly two months，Live JianBu、The ministry of land and resources and other departments has repeatedly comment，To insist on real estate regulation measures related to not to relax。The state council from late July start，A DuZhaZu sent 8，16 provinces and cities in the implementation of the measures to carry out special of superintendent himself。Protecting key for housing 限购 measures、Differentiation credit tax policy implementation and housing land supply。

　　房地产调控两年多来，国务院曾多次督查调控政策落实情况，相比之下，本次督查显得格外“高调”。业内人士普遍认为，高调的督查传递出中央不畏阵痛、将楼市调控坚持到底的决心，也在向一些地方传递信息，不能借口稳增长压力而放松调控。

Real estate control for more than two years，The state council has repeatedly control policy of protecting the implementation，compared，This appears to be superintendent himself“high-profile”。Industry insiders generally thought，High profile of protecting the central not deliver the pain、The property market regulation insist determination，Also in some place to transmit information，Can't excuse steady growth and relax pressure control。

　　据住建部有关人士透露，此次督查的结果将影响下一阶段调控政策的走向。如果地方政策过度松动、房价反弹风险增加，有可能出台更严厉的调控措施。对于落实调控政策不力、没有完成调控既定目标的地方，有关部门将进行约谈甚至问责。

According to live JianBu relevant sources，The supervision will affect the result of a stage of the direction of the control policy。If local policy too loose、House prices increased risk rebound，May come on stage more severe adjustment measures。For implementing the poor control policies、No complete control established goal place，The relevant departments will be questioning even accountability。