广东省社会科学综合开发研究中心主任、研究员，北京交通大学经济管理学院教授 黎友焕 Guangdong province comprehensive development of social science research center director、researchers，Beijing jiaotong university professor of economic management institute LiYouHuan

　　和讯网消息：广东社科院境外热钱专家黎友焕近日在接受和讯网连线时表示，中国经济实际面临压力远大于统计数字公布的压力，所以各级政府目前都很紧张。更令人担忧的是，据黎友焕指导的多个课题组研究，6月底已确认中国许多行业出现通缩苗头，通缩趋势已经确认。

HeXunWang news：Guangdong academy of hot money LiYouHuan recently outside experts in HeXunWang accept attachment said，China's economic actual faced pressure to far outweigh the statistics released by the pressure，So the government at all levels are very nervous。The bigger worry is，According to LiYouHuan guidance of multiple task group study，At the end of June has confirmed that many of China's industry appear deflation symptom，Deflation trend has been confirmed。

　　黎友焕强调，目前资本外逃的趋势依旧。美元的强势上涨，人民币的贬值预期、房价反弹等可能引发大量资本外逃。据黎友焕课题组监测，近几月，房价反弹与资本外逃的曲线如出一辙，表明前期套在二三线房地产的境外热钱正借房价反弹大量套现出逃。

LiYouHuan emphasize，At present the trend is still the capital flight。The strength of the dollar rise，The decline in the value of the yuan is expected、House prices rebound, may lead to a capital flight。According to LiYouHuan monitoring group，In recent months，House prices rebound and the curve of the capital flight and prosperity，Early in the second set that three lines of hot money borrowed foreign real estate prices rebound to cash a lot to run away。

　　黎友焕进一步指出，资本外逃的主要原因来自对中国经济的悲观预期。目前经济的困境远甚于08年危机，內销外销均不行。尽管中国经济不致于硬着陆，但软着陆所需时间远超市场预期，今年中国经济见底可能性不大。

LiYouHuan further pointed out，The main reason for the capital flight from in Chinese economy pessimistic expectations。The current economic difficulties of more than crisis，Domestic export are not。Although China's economy from a hard landing，But the time required for a soft landing than market expectations，This year China economic see bottom is unlikely。

　　尽管黎友焕并不否认十八大前会出台一系列政策提振经济，但黎友焕认为这些政策无法阻止经济下滑。一方面这些政策本身作用有限，另一方面这些政策扏行力会打大折扣。

Although LiYouHuan did not deny 18 before the big stage a series policy to boost the economy，But LiYouHuan think these policy cannot stop the economic downturn。On the one hand the policy itself limited role，On the other hand, these policies 扏 line force will be a big discount。

　　黎友焕丧示，足以提振经济的重大决策要等十八大新领导人产生后才可推出，巳来不及对年内经济产生影响了。

LiYouHuan of his，Enough to jumpstart the economy's major decisions to 18 new leaders such as big before it can be generated after launch，For years too late third economic effect。

　　6月16日得到全国房地产价量齐升的数据，18日黎友焕即向有关部门递交报告，并指出，如果房地产卷土重来，中国经济将付出巨大代价。

On June 16, the real estate price and volume JiSheng get the data，18 LiYouHuan namely submit the report to the relevant departments，And points out that，If real estate to come back，China's economy will pay a heavy price。

　　黎友焕表示，温总理刚强调完严控房价反弹，北京万柳新地王四万一平楼面价就产生了，据说有央企受人指使前去竞标，有央企听劝未去竞标。不管怎样，万柳新地王又一次体现总经理比总理大，体现了重大决策背后存在复杂的政治博奕。

LiYouHuan said，Prime minister wen just emphasize the tight control of house prices rebound，Beijing wanliu new royal forty-one thousand-floor price is created，It is said that have to be sent to scholars from renmin bid，Have persuaded not to bid scholars from renmin。No matter how，There are new royal again reflect than prime minister general manager，Embodies the important decisions are behind the complex political bo game。

　　如果说国内的政治博奕表现为利益集团的博弈，那么国际的政治博奕表现为中美的博弈。黎友焕认为，美国对中国的新一轮布局初步完成，既包括军事，又包括政治、经济、文化。美国的南海布局，自己不动手，却期待中国按捺不住，对菲律宾动手。但一旦打起来，中国外贸运输线或永无宁日。

If domestic political bo performance for the benefit of the game group game，So the international political game for the performance of bo game。LiYouHuan think，The new round of America to China completed preliminary layout，Includes both military，And include political、economic、culture。The United States of south China sea layout，Yourselves do not，But looking forward to contain China，To the Philippines to。But once the fight，China's foreign trade transit or YongWuNingRi。