上半年，在楼市微调的政策背景之下，东莞开发商主打刚需产品，楼市成交逐步回升，大部分开发商取得不错的成绩。年已过半，下半年东莞楼市会有哪些变化？

In the first half，The housing fine-tune the policy background，The dongguan developers need to advocate hit just products，Property market rebounded gradually clinch a deal，Most developers get good results。Year has more than half，The second half of the dongguan property market will have what changes？

　　业内人士认为，目前市场依旧未完全放开，调控仍在延续，限购未松。在这种情况下，就算有刚需支撑市场，供给扩大也无法在短期之内将库存消化掉。下半年，楼市还是主要以去库存化为主，其中南城、塘厦、常平等区域下半年竞争激烈程度不可低估。

The personage inside course of study thinks，At present the market is still not completely let go，Regulation is still continues，限购 not loose。In this case，Even if there are just need to support the market，Supply the expansion also cannot be in short-term inside will inventory digest。The second half，Mainly to stock market or the primarily，South of、enterprise、Often equal competition level second half area cannot be underestimated。

　　在政策层面，中央多次强调关于楼市调控的基调不会有所改变。但也有乐观者认为地方政府为求经济增长，微调力度会有所放大。更有机构透露，东莞相关部门已把部分促进消费的楼市微调政策的方案提交市政府审批。

In the policy level，The central has repeatedly stressed the property market regulation about the fundamental key won't change。But there are also optimists think local government for the sake of economic growth，Fine-tuning strength would be enlarged。More institutions has revealed，The dongguan related departments to promote consumption has been part of the policy options market fine-tuning submit the city government for examination and approval。

　　与楼市唇亡齿寒的土地市场，或将在下半年推地高潮之时，迎来“以价换量”。而楼市供应方面，下半年东莞楼市新增供应面积超340万，预计约35个全新项目入市。南城、塘厦、常平等热点区域由于供应量大，或迎来一场激烈的争夺之战。同时，商业地产业将迎来更多机遇，优质城市综合体的产品已然在上半年得到市场的认可。

And the land market lips death and teeth cold property market，Or will push to climax in the second half，have“To change the price of”。And housing supply，The second half of the new supply of dongguan property market with an area of more than 3.4 million，About 35 new project is expected to market。south、enterprise、Often equality due to supply hot spots，Or have a fierce competition for the war。At the same time，Commercial real estate will have more opportunities，The high quality of the products has complex city in the first half to get recognized by the market。

　　

宏观调控从紧 Macro regulation tight

　　政策基调不变 Changeless fundamental key policy

　　日前，珠海楼市“双限”意欲松绑，却胎死腹中。珠海限购松绑是今年以来又一个被紧急叫停的地方楼市新政。未来各地政策调控将会更为谨慎，市场仍以刚需为主，投机投资性需求仍严格受限制，政策调整唯有在合理区分投资性和改善性自住需求中寻求突破。

a，Zhuhai property market“Double limit”Intended to relax，But before。Zhuhai 限购 easing is this year since and a new place called emergency housing market。All over the future policy control will be more cautious，The market is still to just need to give priority to，Speculative investment demand has strictly restricted，Policy adjustment only in investment and improve differentiate sexual self living demand for breakthrough。

　　截至目前，全国已有33个地方政府尝试了“微调”，内容分别涉及限购、土地出让、普通住宅标准、税费优惠以及购房补贴等，其中除了涉及放宽限购的5个城市外，其他28个城市的“微调”均获得了某种程度的默许。

So far，The country had been 33 local government tried“fine-tuning”，Content involves 限购 respectively、Land transfer、Average house standard、Tax concessions and purchase subsidies，One of the 限购 involved in addition to relax five outside the city，28 other cities“fine-tuning”All have a degree of tacit approval。

　　可以预见，下半年各地方政府为稳增长，或将在土地市场上微调。地方政府“擦边球”政策将会越来越多，微调将会往“改善性需求”方向倾斜。

Can foresee，The second half of the local government for steady growth，Or will the land market in the fine-tuning。Local government“outside”Policy will be getting more and more，Fine-tuning will go to“Improve sexual needs”Direction tilt。

　　回归到东莞楼市，上半年的东莞楼市没有出台任何相关政策。这个时候，没政策就是最好的政策。

Return to the dongguan property market，Dongguan property market in the first half of any relevant policy not yet available。This time，No policy is the best policy。

　　东莞中原地产研究中心透露，东莞住建局、房管局已经把部分微调政策的方案提交市政府审批。其中涉及普通住宅标准调整、让更多购房者享受契税优惠、为城市重大投资建设项目开通绿色通道、加快项目审批进度等内容，意在促进东莞投资消费。

The dongguan centaline property research center revealed，The dongguan live built innings、Housingadministration bureau has put part fine-tuning policy options to submit the city government for examination and approval。One involving average house standard adjustment、Let more homebuyers enjoy agree tax preferential、City major construction projects for investment open a green channel、To speed up the progress of the project examination and approval, etc，To promote the dongguan investment spending。

　　不过，这一消息并没有得到相关部门权威发布。

but，The news and not by the relevant authorities issued by the authority。

　　

下半年新增供应量超340万平方米 The second half of the 3.4 million square meters of new supply

　　据记者不完全统计，2012年下半年东莞预计有35个纯新盘入市，其中以镇区纯新盘或新产品上市为主，主要集中在长安、塘厦、寮步等镇街。而南城、塘厦、常平等中心城区与成熟镇街依旧是下半年的热点供应区域，预计将有效激发购房需求。

According to the reporter not complete count，Dongguan is expected in the second half of 2012 has 35 pure XinPan market，Among them with pure XinPan township or new product listed mainly，The main focus on changan、enterprise、Enterprise such as the ZhenJie。And in south、enterprise、Often equal city center and mature ZhenJie is still in the second half of the hot supply area，The pent-up demand is expected to be effective arousal。

　　据东莞中原地产研究中心统计数据显示，2012年下半年，东莞楼市潜在供应仍然较大，预计住宅合计供应面积342.86万。其中，南城住宅供应面积为43.08万，塘厦与常平住宅供应面积分别为34.05万和27.44万。

According to the dongguan centaline property research center statistics show，The second half of 2012，The dongguan property market potential is still greater supply，Housing supply is expected to total area of 3.4286 million。Among them，South area of housing supply for 430800，Enterprise and enterprise area of housing supply were 34.05 and 274400。

　　随着新上市项目的增加，这些区域竞争加剧的同时，也提高片区市场的关注度，增加购房者的选择性，将有效激发压抑的购房需求。

Along with the increase of new listing projects，These regional competition at the same time，Also improve the area the attention of the market，Increase the selectivity of the person that buy a house，Will effectively arouse depressive pent-up demand。

　　记者了解到，塘厦碧桂园三盘或将在九月中旬集中上市，该片区也将迎来前所未有的竞争。而供应短缺的桥头、谢岗和麻涌等镇也将有新项目入市，这些片区商品房紧缺的局面将有所缓解。

The reporter understands，Enterprise on country in the third set in the middle of September or focus on the market，The film area will also have an unprecedented competition。And supply shortages of the bridge、XieGang and linen chung, there will also be new project the market，The area of shortage of the commodity situation will ease。

　　从推出的产品来看，下半年刚需产品仍为主流，但改善性产品和别墅也逐步增加。市场将迎来多样化的发展，观望中的改善性需求客户或将打破观望。

The launch of the products from see，The second half to products for the mainstream still just，But improving sex products and the villa also increasing。The market will have diversified development，The sexual needs customers looking to improve or will break on the fence。

　　

下半年土地更需“以价换量” The second half of the land should be more“To change the price of”

　　土地交易在一定程度上反映着房地产市场未来的发展趋势，因此也被称作房地产市场的“晴雨表”。

Land deal in a certain extent reflects the real estate market the future trend of development，So is also called the real estate market“barometer”。

　　上半年土地供应以一二线热点区域为主，其中不乏一些优质地块，其中包括东城主山地块。从上半年成交的18宗商住、商业地块来看，有11宗地块溢价成交，而溢价率达到40%以上的有7宗。

Land supply in the first half with a second line mainly hot spots，There is no lack of among them some high quality plot，Including east of the hill country。In the first half of the 18 cases clinch a deal from residential and commercial、Business plot to see，With 11 Pope plot premium clinch a deal，And premium rate reached more than 40% of the seven Pope。

　　然而，此前业界看好的塘厦大坪村两宗商住地块，在7月16日-18日，接连流拍。

however，After the industry of DaPingCun enterprise value two of the residential and commercial plots，On July 16,-18，Continued flow pat。

　　业内分析认为，剔除该地块周边有高压线、地块总价高且塘厦竞争激烈等因素影响，开发商更多的考虑到，下半年东莞将迎来推地高潮，选择余地变大，没必要“吊死在一棵树上”。

The analysis that，Eliminate this plot surrounding have high tension line、Land price high and influencing factors of enterprise competitive，Developers more considered，The second half of the dongguan will have pushed to the climax，Choice get big，Don't need to“Hanging from a tree”。

　　2012年上半年，东莞土地供应量和成交量同比去年均出现大幅度的下滑。其中，商住用地供应面积66.53万，同比减少68.47%；商住用地成交面积57.66万，同比减少70.78%。前述研究机构认为，这是由于上半年楼市的不明朗，造成政府减缓推地节奏。

In the first half of 2012，The dongguan land supply and volume last year compared to all appear declines。Among them，Residential land supply area of 665300，Reduce 68.47% year-on-year；Residential land area 576600 clinch a deal，Reduce 70.78% year-on-year。The study says，This is because in the first half of the property market uncertainty，Cause the government to push the slow pace。

　　土地供应作为房地产开发的源头，在本轮调控中的作用将更加显著。

Land supply as the source of the real estate development，In the current round of the role of regulation will be even more significant。

　　随着东莞楼市交投氛围趋向活跃，国土部门或加快土地的供应规模，从而确保增加土地财政方面的收益。下半年推地高潮的到来，开发商的选择增多。此时对于某些起拍价偏高，或有硬伤的地块，或需要政府作出“让利”，即“以价换量”。

As the dongguan property market trend active trading atmosphere，Land branch or to speed up the supply of land scale，So as to ensure that increase the land the fiscal revenue。The climax of the second half to push coming，The choice of developers increase。At this time for some fry attracted an initial bid is on the high side，Or have called flints plots，Or need government to make“Profits to the”，namely“To change the price of”。

　　即将在8月入市的南城总部基地二期8宗优质地块，届时或上演土地拍卖盛宴。

In August the city of income is supervised headquarters phase ii 8 cases of high quality plot，When or on land auctions feast。

　　

下半年或呈量价平稳走势 The second half of a stable quantity and price movements or

　　预计下半年借助稳增长的政策组合，东莞楼市将延续旺盛的交投氛围，迎来成交量的大幅反弹时期，从物业档次上来看，刚需户型产品依然是接下来的市场焦点与出货主力，同时改善及投资性需求也趋向活跃，大户型产品也有机会。在新房市场企稳反弹之后，价格会有所上涨，二手市场交投也逐步趋向活跃，达到一二手相互促进的作用。

With the growth of the second half is expected to steady policy combination，The dongguan property market will continue the strong trading environment，In the period, the volume of rebound sharply，From the property on the class to see，Just need to family products is still the next market focus and regular shipment，At the same time improve and investment demand tend to be active，Big family products also had the opportunity。In the new home market stabilising after rebound，The prices are rising，Secondhand market delivers also gradually incline to active，To achieve a second-hand promote each other role。

　　东莞中原地产研究部认为，连续降息带来房贷利率的下降，直接减少购房者的还贷压力。而央行降息宣布不久，国家统计局于7月9日上午发布CPI宏观经济数据，数据显示6月全国CPI总水平同比上涨2.2%，创下了29个月来新低。通胀压力明显减弱，但经济增速不容乐观，预计下半年政府仍然会加强预调微调的力度和节奏，确保经济增速的稳定增长，下半年可能还会有2-3次的下调存准率和降息，届时将会促进购房者需求的进一步释放。

The dongguan centaline property research department think，To slash interest rates to bring mortgage interest rates down，The person that buy a house loan payments directly to reduce pressure。And the central bank announced soon cut interest rates，The national bureau of statistics on July 9 CPI macro economic data released this morning，Data showed that the general level of June CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year，A 29 months to new lows。Inflation pressure decreased significantly，But economic growth is not optimistic，The second half of the government is expected to strengthen will still be under attack fine-tune the strength and rhythm，Ensure the stable growth of economic growth，The second half of may also have 2-3 times the accuracy and save the cut interest rates，When will promote the release of the person that buy a house needs further。

　　与此同时，随着成交量的持续回升，开发商资金链的有效缓解，预计下半年企业会加快开工节奏，楼市将呈量价平稳走势。

At the same time，Along with the volume continue to rise，Developers of capital chain relief，The second half will speed up the enterprise is expected to start the rhythm，Housing market would be a stable quantity and price movements。

　　热点区域的塘厦、凤岗、南城、厚街等即将迎来供应高潮，将刺激成交同步放量，成为市场交投旺盛的区域。同时，商业地产业将迎来更多机遇，城市综合体投资价值逐步获得认可。这从近期长安万达广场、汇景世纪双子等商业项目的热销，可见商业买家的热情之高涨。

The enterprise hot spots、Chicken hillock、south、Houjie, etc are about to hit supply high tide，Will stimulate synchronous y109.52 to clinch a deal，Become market delivers exuberant area。At the same time，Commercial real estate will have more opportunities，Urban complex investment value gradually approved。This from a recent changan wanda plaza、Collect scene century such as the twin commercial project sell like hot cakes，Visible commercial buyers passion high。