7月27日下午，上海市人民政府办公厅下发《上海市人民政府办公厅关于进一步严格执行房地产市场各项调控政策的通知》，明确强调上海市将进一步贯彻落实国家和本市出台的房地产市场各项调控政策，严格执行差别化住房信贷、税收和住房限售政策，对贷款购买二套住房严格执行“认房认贷”标准、首付款标准、贷款利率标准，提出“严格按照房屋用途加强交易管理”、“开展房地产市场调控政策执行情况检查”等六点要求。在我们看来，上海选择在这个时间点上公开强调房地产调控的继续严格执行，主要是针对近期中央正在进行的对全国重点省份房地产市场现状调研所做出的反馈，事实上，自今年年初以来，上海当局在维持本轮房地产调控的延续性问题上，一直表现得相当积极。

July 27, afternoon，Issued by the general office of the Shanghai municipal people's government《The Shanghai municipal people's government house on further strictly carry out the real estate market control policy notice》，Clear emphasis on Shanghai will further implement the state and the city on the introduction of the real estate market various control policies，Strict execution differentiation housing credit、Tax and housing limited sales policy，The loan to buy two sets of housing strictly enforced“Confess that room loan”standard、Head to standard、Loan interest rate standard，Put forward“In strict accordance with the house USES strengthen transaction management”、“In the real estate market regulation policy implementation inspection”Etc requirements at six。In our view，Shanghai selection in this time points emphasizes the public real estate regulation continue strict execution，Mainly is aims at the recent central ongoing national key province to the real estate market to present situation investigation of feedback，In fact，Since since earlier this year，Shanghai authorities in maintaining this real estate regulation on the continuity of the problem，Always did quite positive。

　　纵观今年以来上海房地产政策面的变动轨迹，大致上有四轮比较大的调整：第一轮出现在年初时的2月份，有媒体报道户籍单身人士在诸多区县被限购1套住房，不久之后这一消息被市房产交易中心确认；第二轮出现在2月底，同样源于媒体的报道，焦点是持居住证满三年非户籍人士可购二套房，后迫于外界的重重压力，该执行标准被上海政府叫停；第三轮出现在6月份，房管局叫停非户籍人士补缴一年税款以获得购房资格的做法；第四轮则出现了7月份，部分区县房产交易中心出台新规，但凡单身、非上海籍购房者，无论是否已有缴纳社保或个人所得税证明，都将被列入购房限制范畴。在经历以上四轮主要围绕着政策操作细部的调整之后，当前上海限购政策中可转圜的空间越来越小，在我们看来，不断收紧政策执行及在市政府层面公开强调调控延续性，将在一定程度上弹压前期市场所产生的回升预期。

Throughout this year since Shanghai real estate of the policy change track，In general have four-wheel larger adjustment：The first round appear in the earlier this year in February，Media reports census register singles in many districts and counties were 限购 1 set of housing，Soon after the news was city estate trade center confirmed；The second round appear in February，Also comes from media reports，Focus is the residence permit full three years the people can buy two suites of census register，In response to external pressures after，This standard is Shanghai government to stop；The third round appear in June，The census register people stop room canal filling capture a year to obtain the qualification that buy a house tax practices；The fourth round appear in July，Part of the area county estate trade center issued new rules，Every single、The ShangHaiJi homeowners，Whether for pay social security or individual income tax proof，Will be included in the purchase restricted category。After four main around policy above the detail operation after adjustment，The current policy can be turned in Shanghai 限购 the space more and more little，In our view，Tightening policy implementation and constantly in city level public emphasize regulation continuity，Will be in a certain degree the market generated leaned back expectations。

　　对比今年二季度以来全国其他省市、尤其是二三线城市争相放松房地产调控的现实，上海当局在调控问题上的谨慎、甚至于保守是显而易见的，笔者认为，造成这样差异的主要原因有三点：其一，上海作为全国核心城市之一，树大招风，其调控的延续性具有相当重大的风向标意义，上海政策哪怕出现一点点松动，都会对全局造成非常巨大的示范效应，这显然不是中央所愿意看到的；其二，近年以来的经济结构转型，使得上海当前对于房地产业的依赖程度有所降低，相比于众多财政收入仅能依靠土地税收的二三线城市，上海所拥有的余地更大；其三，从上海当前在全国经济大局中的地位而言，中央对上海党政领导人的考核重心不会是二三线城市那样简单的经济增长率，而会更多地关注在社会维稳上，从这个角度出发，房地产调控就有了其必须延续下去的重要理由。

Since the second quarter of this year compared to other provinces and municipalities of the country、Especially two three line to relax regulation of city real estate reality，Shanghai authorities in the regulation on the question of the prudent、Even conservative is obvious，The author thinks that，Cause such differences are the main reasons at 3 o 'clock：one，Shanghai, as the core cities，Tall trees catch much wind，The regulation of the continuity of the great with the vane of significance，Shanghai even appear a little loose policy，Will cause huge global demonstration effect，This is clearly not the wish to see；The second，In recent years, the economic structure transformation since，Make Shanghai real estate industry for the dependent on reduced，Compared to many financial income can only rely on land tax two three line city，Shanghai have more leeway；thirdly，In the national economy from Shanghai current situation for the position，The central committee of the party and government leaders focus of Shanghai assessment is not two three line as simple as economic growth rate of the city，And will pay more attention to the social dimension stability in，From this Angle，Real estate regulation have its must continue the important reasons。

　　从市场的角度来看，由于政策面的相对谨慎，预计今年上海市场交易量很难形成持续上行的通道，尤其在非户籍刚需被大幅削弱之后，将使得去年以来表现突出的外郊板块刚需产品销售速度逐渐放缓，而在市府层面反复强调调控延续性的背景下，也必然会影响一部分购房急迫性略小群体的入市积极性，更为重要的是，从目前上海当局的态度来看，如果7、8月份市场交易量继续放量增长，尤其是一旦房价出现了不合时宜的上涨，则政策面恐怕还会有更大幅度的收紧，以此来看，我们认为上海市场目前还缺乏进入顺周期的基础，下半年交易量价总体仍将以平稳为主。

From the point of view of the market，Because of the policy of caution，Shanghai market volume this year is expected to continue to form the uplink channel，Especially in the census register to be severely weakened after just，Will make outstanding since last year, just outside of the plate just need to product sales speed is slowing，And in the city level repeated regulation under the background of continuity，Also will affect purchase slightly small groups or urgency of the entry enthusiasm，Even more important，From the Shanghai authorities attitude and see，If seven、In August the market volume tumbled to continue growth，Especially when house prices appeared untimely rise，I'm afraid the policy will have more substantial tightening，To come to see，We think the Shanghai market is still lack the foundation of the cycle into，The second half price volume at a steady overall will give priority to。