来自中原地产的信息，七月第一周，全国主要54个城市，商品房签约已连续9周突破5万套，整体市场复苏已经明显成为趋势。

From the information centaline property，The first week of July，The main 54 city，Commodity house signing has been for 9 weeks reached 50000 sets，The overall market recovery has clearly become the trend。

　　限购最为严格的北京一向被看做楼市的风向标。3月以来北京新房市场回暖明显，且持续至今，成交量出现明显上涨。据链家地产市场研究部统计，在签约率走高同时，年内入市项目签约率由3月的9.9%持续上升到目前的36.4%，月均涨幅近一成，累计上涨26.5%。新入市项目拟售价格和成交价格间差价率也在持续缩小，指标在3月为20.3%，而到目前已经持续下降至13.8%，累计下降6.5%。新房“平开高走”，市场出现了涨价的苗头。

限购 most strict Beijing has always been seen as the leader of property market。3 months Beijing new home market warms up obvious，And continuous so far，There is a clear volume increases。According to the real estate market research statistics chain home，In signing rate go up at the same time，Years project signing entry by march of the 9.9% rate continues to rise to 36.4% now，The average monthly rise nearly ten percent，Has risen by 26.5%。New entrants project is price and sale price differential between clinch a deal the price continues to shrink，Index in March to 20.3%，And so far has continued to fall from 13.8% to，Cumulative drop 6.5%。Bridal chamber“Flat open high to go”，The market price of the symptom appeared。

　　业内人士普遍认为，近期住建部等部委以及温家宝总理屡次强调要坚持房地产调控政策，短期内政策松动的可能性几乎为零，但楼市的回暖已为事实，对此中央政府并没有进一步表态要出手新的调控政策，房价再跌的可能性几近为零。

Industry insiders generally thought，The recent live JianBu etc ministries and premier wen jiabao stressed the need to insist on real estate often control policy，The short term policy loose possibility is almost zero，But the property market has warmed to the facts，The central government to take no further comment and new regulation policies，House prices fell again the possibility of nearly to zero。

　　北京中原市场研究部总监张大伟认为，整体市场依然在明显放大成交量。再次降息，不仅使购房者实际支付能力增加，购房者对房价的预期也出现变化，看跌的购房者明显减少，入市的积极性在明显提高。而且成交均价在成交量放大的支撑下，均价出现了上涨，开发商乐观情绪开始出现，供应量有所增加，包括首次置业、首次改善、二次改善的产品，都加速推盘。拉高了市场成交量。“量在价先”，以价换量到了一定程度，折扣必然回收。

Beijing central plains market research department director ZhangDaWei think，The overall market is still in the apparently amplification volume。Cut interest rates again，Not only make the person that buy a house actual capacity to pay increase，The person that buy a house to house prices also appear expected changes，Put buyers were obviously reduced，The enthusiasm of the entry in obviously improved。And the price for the support in volume to increase，All valence appears to rise，Developers optimism began to appear，Supply increases，Including first-time home buyers、First improve、Secondary improve products，Are accelerating push dish。Push the market volume。“Quantity first in price”，To change to a certain degree of price，Discount inevitable recovery。

　　中原地产分析，受新开工全面触底的影响，七八月淡季推盘量较小，估计全年成交量最高点会在九至十一月出现。整体下半年的市场成交量将会超过上半年，在调控微松的影响下，恐慌性入市量是可以支持目前的成交量继续放大20%左右，但房价上涨的幅度不会过大。

Centaline property analysis，New start by the influence of the overall hit bottom，Off-season push dish quantity smaller set，Estimated annual turnover in November 9 to high appear。In the second half of the whole market turnover will be more than the first half of the year，In the regulation under the influence of the loose，Panic amount can be to support the current entry in the volume of sales continue to enlarge around 20%，But house prices rising rate not too large。

　　链家地产也认为，从目前的市场情况来看，签约率走高和差价率走低的旺市特征还会进一步持续。楼市在连续回暖后，部分区域出现量价齐涨，但近期住建部等部委以及温家宝总理都屡次强调要坚持房地产调控政策，短期内政策松动的可能性几乎为零。虽然当前货币政策放宽，但央行7月5日重启差异化利率调整，导致银行信贷额度紧张以及盈利空间缩小，因此购房贷款优惠幅度很难随之变大，拉动购房需求的作用并不显著，多套房的贷款政策不可能松动。另外，虽然存款利率下调，但二次降息后，正利率优势实际上更加明显。7月5日降息后，国有五大行再次将一年期存款利率上调1.08倍，至3.25%，部分中小银行上调存款利率1.1倍，至3.3%，高出当前CPI1个百分点以上。因此以资金保值为目的消费者不会急于入市，市场投资冲动并不强烈。这种市场条件下商品房价格难以出现大涨。

House property also think chain，From the current market situation，Signing rate high and low price differential walk the flourishing city features will further last。Property in warm and continuous，Part of the area appear together up quantity and price，But recent live JianBu etc ministries and premier wen jiabao have repeatedly stressed the need to insist on real estate control policies，The short term policy loose possibility is almost zero。Although the current monetary policy relaxed，But the central bank on July 5, restart differentiation interest rate adjustment，Lead to bank credit lines strain, and profit space narrow，So it is difficult to purchase loan discount rate then get big，Pull the role of pent-up demand is not significant，Many of the loans policy impossible suite is loose。In addition，Although deposit rate，But after the second cut interest rates，Is interest rate advantage in fact more apparent。July 5, after the cut interest rates，State-owned five line will again raise the one-year deposit rate 1.08 times，To 3.25%，Part of the small and medium-sized bank deposit interest rate 1.1 times，To 3.3%，More than higher than the current CPI1。So to hedge funds for the purpose of consumers not rushing to market，The market is not strong investment impulse。The market conditions are hard to show house price soar。