经济观察网 记者 朱熹妍 Economic observation network reporter ZhuXiYan

　　市场可以暂时松一口气了，至少巴克莱资本这样认为。

The market can be temporary relief，Barclays capital at least think so。

　　中国政府刚刚公布的6月份最新数据，大体符合他们的预测。他们认为不断增长的基础设施投资，正在抵消放慢的房地产投资。这种两个月之前的趋势将持续到房地产投资逐步趋稳。

The Chinese government just released new data in June，General accord with their predictions。They think that growing infrastructure investment，Are offset slowing real estate investment。The two months before the trend would continue to real estate investment gradually stabilised。

　　虽然打上引号，他们仍然将此趋势定义为“复苏”。

Although a quotation marks，They still will be defined as the trend“recovery”。

　　中国GDP从第一季度同比增长8.1%到第二季度同比增长7.6%。其中基础设施投资从同比增长4.6%升至同比增长8.2%；与此同时，房地产投资从5月份的同比增长18.5%降至16.6%。由于家电和家具等房地产相关商品零售的强劲增长，商品零售出人意料地从同比增长11%达到同比增长12.1%。

China from the first quarter GDP increased 8.1% year-on-year in the second quarter to 7.6% increase。Including infrastructure investment rose from year-on-year growth of 4.6% year-on-year growth of 8.2%；At the same time，Real estate investment in May from the year-on-year growth of 18.5% to 16.6%。Because of home appliance and furniture real estate related retail strong growth，Retail unexpectedly from year-on-year growth of 11% to 12.1% increase。

　　“所有这些数据都支持我们稳中向好的观点，内需并不像进口数据中显示的那样疲软。”巴克莱资本认为。

“All these data support we stability to good ideas，Domestic demand is not like the import data showing that weakness。”Barclays capital said。

　　基础设施投资特别是水利和能源方面最近所出现的复苏迹象，反映了政府在“十二五”规划中保障重点项目建设的政策。随着政府转向明确支持增长的立场，发改委从5月份起加快了对新项目（如清洁能源和钢铁企业）的批准。这些都是新一轮投资拉动的迹象。

Infrastructure investment especially water conservancy and energy in recent signs of recovery，Reflects in the government“1025”Planning in the security key projects of the policy。With the government's turn to explicitly support growth position，From the national development and reform commission in May for the new project up up（Such as clean energy and iron and steel enterprise）approval。These are all signs of pulling a new round of investment。

　　但是，巴克莱资本也谨慎提示，中国6月份工业生产活动依旧疲弱。工业产值数据呈现下行趋势。6月份工业产值涨幅低至9.5%，将第二季度平均同比涨幅拉低到9.5%，比第一季度的11.6%低两个百分点。“考虑到工业产值在GDP中40%的比重以及两者的历史联系（中国的官方GDP数据基于生产而非消费），这可能表明实际GDP增长率为7-7.3%。工业产值数据与工厂工业活动的疲弱是一致的。”

but，Barclays capital also careful hints，China's June industrial production is still weak。Industrial production data present trend downward。Industrial output rose in June, down to 9.5%，Will the second quarter compared to the average rise and low to 9.5%，The first quarter of 11.6% lower than two percent。“Considering the industrial output in 40% of GDP and the history of both contact（China's official GDP data based on production, not consumption），This may show that real GDP growth of 7 to 7.3%。Industrial production data and factory industrial activity is consistent with the weak。”

　　因此，巴克莱认为中国经济将在第二季度触底，并维持2012年GDP增长8.1%的预测。但是他们也担心银根放松的有效性是否已经被削弱，从放松信贷增长限制到投资增长减弱的通常政策传导机制是否正在弱化。首先，可能商业银行，特别是大型国有商业银行不愿意放贷，因为他们顾及资产负债表的信贷质量，认为缺少优质项目。合资银行可能也会起来反对存贷比限制，因为这样会限制他们的信贷投放能力。其次，企业可能不愿意借贷，原因是产能过剩、增长前景不明朗、对企业发展缺乏信心。尽管6月份新增贷款高达9200亿元人民币，短期贷款和票据融资比例高于长期贷款的信贷结构印证了这些担忧。

so，Barclays argue that China's economy will be in the second quarter hit bottom，And maintain 2012 GDP growth estimate of 8.1%。But they also worry about the effectiveness of monetary easing is weakened，Relax credit growth from limited to investment growth weakened usually policy transmission mechanism is weakening。first，May commercial Banks，Especially large state-owned commercial Banks is not willing to lend to borrowers，Because they attend to the credit quality of the balance sheet，That lack of high quality projects。Joint venture Banks may also be up against deposit-loan ratio restrictions，Because it will limit their credit supply capacity。second，Enterprise may not be willing to borrowing，The reason is excess capacity、Growth prospects unclear、On the enterprise development lack of confidence。Although new lending in June as high as 920 billion yuan，Short-term loans and bill financing proportion than long-term loans credit structure by these concerns。