陈李/文 ChenLi/text

　　地产股未来的潜在风险可能来自两个方面：一是销售回暖结束，未来地产销售转向疲弱；二是房价再次显著上涨，引发新一轮的调控。目前来看，两个风险都不大，投资者无需过分担心。

Property counters were future potential risk may come from two aspects：One is the sales milder end，The future real estate sales to the weak；The second is house prices rise sharply again，Trigger off a new round of regulation。So far，Two risk is not big，Investors need not worry too much about。

　　当前的销售水平是可以持续的，甚至还有小幅改善的空间（即当前的季节性特征仍能延续到下半年）。就限售的38个城市而言，今年下半年销售金额和销售面积可能转为同比小幅增长，如果首套房的按揭乘数进一步放松至两成的话，或许全年会有两位数的增长。但是对于其他三四线城市而言，调整仍将延续。一方面，这些城市2011年的销售高基数将使得10月以前的销售额和销售面积的同比跌幅维持在两位数左右；另一方面对于这些城市而言，供给量的增长和预期的改变才是地产销售疲弱的核心，严厉的地产调控政策从未指向过这些城市。

The current sales level can be sustained，There are even small improvement space（That is the current seasonal characteristics can still continue to the second half）。Will limit the sale 38 in the city，The second half of this year the amount of sales and sales area may be converted into a year-on-year growth，If the first suite mortgage multiplier further easing to twenty percent words，Perhaps throughout the year will have double-digit growth。But for other cities in three or four line，Adjustment will still continue。On the one hand，These city 2011 years of sales high base will make October previous sales and sales area of year-on-year decline in maintain double-digit or so；On the other hand for these cities in，Supply growth and expected changes is the real estate sale and the core of the weak，Severe real estate regulation policy never to these cities。

　　就房价而言，最近一些限售城市的房地产销售回暖带来了一些关于房价再次大幅上涨的负面报道，我们认为不能过度解读。首先，销售回暖带来对价格的支撑是不争的事实。但是统计局所公布的70个大中城市里大多数城市的房价仍然是环比和同比下跌的。就一线城市而言，房价不是由开发商决定的，而是由二手房房东决定的，这些城市二手房成交额占全部成交额的比率高达60%-70%。因此，一线城市的房价小幅上涨并不代表全国的普遍现象。

Just as house prices，Recently some limited sales city real estate sales milder brought about house prices rose sharply again negative reports，We don't think we can excessive reading。First of all，Sales milder bring on the price of support is an indisputable fact。But the bureau of statistics released 70 large and medium cities of most cities housing prices is still link and year-on-year fall。A line in the city，House prices is not decided by the developer，But by the second-hand house landlord decision，The city second-hand house turnover total turnover ratio as high as 60% - 70%。therefore，A line of small city house price rise does not represent the national common phenomenon。

　　如果用全国的销售额除以全国的销售面积来观察全国的整体房价水平的话，我们发现，4、5月的销售单价是有小幅的提升，而且这样的提升与过去两年的情况是有差异的。2010年和2011年都出现过年初价格跃升而后逐月回落的现象，今年年初价格跃升之后却在4、5月出现回升。有投资者据此开始担心全国性的房价上升再次开始，这样的担心是不必要的，最近的价格上升更多的是来自销售结构变化的影响。限购的38个城市1-5月销售金额占全国销售金额的比例有不小的提升（比2011年年底提升了3.8个百分点），这些城市的房屋单价较高拉动了全国的销售单价，全国性的房价上涨并没有发生。考虑到三四线城市地产的需求远弱于一二线城市，预计三四线城市未来的库存压力显著，一年以内全国房价大涨的可能性很小。

If you use the national sales divided by the sales area to observe the whole house prices that level，We found，4、May the sale price is a small ascension，And so ascension and in the past two years the situation is different。In 2010 and 2011 had appeared at the beginning of the price jump and then month by month back phenomenon，Earlier this year the price jump but after in 4、May appear rebound。Have investors began to worry about according to national house prices rise begin again，This worry is unnecessary，The most recent price increase more from sales structure change influence。The restricted 38 city 1-5 month sales amount accounted for the proportion of sales amount a lot of ascension（At the end of the year than in 2011 (up 3.8%)），The city house price higher pull the national sales unit price，National prices did not happen。Considering the three or four line city real estate demand far weaker than a second city，Three or four line is expected to future urban inventory pressure significantly，A year of less than the national house prices surged possibility is very small。

　　从商品房整体的角度看，今年1-5月销售额同比下降了9%，但是投资额仍然同比增长18.5%，当前的销售额仍然远远不够推动企业的投资意愿。如果把销售额小于投资额的部分定义为资金缺口的话，我们预计今明两年房地产行业将面临巨大的资金缺口。假设2012年全年的销售额不下降（隐含下半年销售额是同比小幅增长的），投资额全年的累积增速有15%的话，我们测算下来对应11882亿元的资金缺口，是2011年的四倍，是2008年的大约两倍。除非投资额增速进一步大幅下降，或者销售额增速有大幅的上升，否则资金缺口明年将依然存在，甚至有可能进一步扩大。

From the perspective of the overall commercial housing，This year 1-5 month sales fell 9% year-on-year，But the investment is still a year-on-year increase of 18.5%，The current sales are still far from enough to push the enterprise investment。If the sales of less than partial definitions for financing gap words，We expect in the next two years the real estate industry will face huge funding gap。Assuming that 2012 annual sales don't fall（Implicit in the second half of the sales year-on-year growth is small），The accumulation of the investment growth 15% words，We measure down corresponding RMB 1.1882 trillion of funds gap，Four times the number in 2011，Is 2008 years of about two times。Unless investment growth further plunged，Sales growth or a sharp rise，Otherwise the financing gap next year will still exist，Might even further。

　　有投资者可能会质疑这样的判断，提出2011年投资额增速很高，但是从销售额和投资额的缺口来看也比较显著。我们的猜测是2009-2010年的资金富余量比较大，这些沉淀资金在2011年比较好地支持了地产投资额的高速增长，但是这些资金在2011年已被消耗殆尽（我们估算，2000年到2011年的累积资金剩余留存到2012年的量只剩下796亿元）。

Have investors may question the judgment，Put forward 2011 investment growth is very high，But from sales and investment of the gap to see is significant。Our guess is 2009-2010 years of capital surplus quantity is big，These precipitation funds in 2011 is better to support the real estate investment growth，But these funds in 2011 has been consumed（We estimate，2000 to 2011 years of accumulated capital surplus retained to the amount of 2012 only 79.6 billion yuan）。

　　今年房地产行业面临的是销售疲弱和再融资监管的困境，所以当前的地产投资增速不可持续，还有继续下降的空间。未来如果房地产销售额不能有30%以上的同比增长的话，地产行业可能需要万亿元以上规模的股权、信托、债券等形式的再融资才能支持目前的投资增速水平。所以从2-3年的时间纬度来看，地产公司再融资不可避免。

This year, the real estate industry is facing sales the weak and the plight of refinancing supervision，So the current real estate investment unsustainable growth，And continue to drop space。The future if the real estate sales there can be no more than 30% of the year-on-year growth of words，Real estate industry may need one trillion yuan of above the size of the equity、trust、Bonds, and other forms of refinancing to support the investment level of growth。So from 2-3 years time latitude to see，Real estate companies refinancing inevitable。

作者为瑞银证券研究部副主管、首席证券策略分析师 The author for ubs securities research department director、Chief securities strategy analyst