一场大规模的政府调研往往被认为是新政策出台的前奏。近日，国务院派出8个督查组摸底全国房地产市场，引发新一轮楼市调控猜想。业内人士认为，新的调控政策可能在强化原有调控措施基础上，在税费方面有所突破，上调二手房交易税费可能率先出台。

A massive government research is often considered as the prelude to a new policies。recently，The state council sent eight DuZhaZu touch bottom national real estate market，Cause a new round of the property market regulation conjecture。The personage inside course of study thinks，The new control policies in strengthening measures may be based on the original，In a breakthrough in taxes，Raised the second-hand house transaction taxes and fees on May first。

　　多轮调控效果反复

Several rounds of regulation and effect

　　从2009年底至今的两年多时间里，国家针对住宅市场相继启动了四轮调控，但调控效果反复。不过2011年被称为“史上调控最严”的一年，去年9月房价出现下降拐点，成交量下降，调控效果明显。

From the end of 2009 has two years，Countries in the housing market have launched the four-wheel regulation，But regulation effect again and again。But in 2011 is called“In the history of the most strict control”year，Last September house prices decline inflection point，Volume decline，Regulation and control effect is obvious。

　　2011年1月，国务院出台 “新国八条”进行调控，要求将二套房房贷首付比例提至60%，贷款利率不低于基准利率的1.1倍，省会居民暂停购买第三套房，坚决遏制投资投机性购房。

In January 2011，The state council has rolled out “Article eight new countries”control，Demand will be the second suite mortgage down proportion mention to 60%，Loan interest rate of not less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate，Capital residents purchase suspended third suite，Resolutely curb speculative investment purchase。

　　随着调控的深入，自去年下半年开始，超过4个城市对楼市调控政策进行微调，近期“微调”动作更是频繁。涉及调整首套房标准、上调公积金贷款限额、给予购房税费优惠、放松土地出让条件等方面。除部分城市因调整尺度过大而被叫停外，其余均得到默许。

With the deepening of the regulation，Since the second half of last year began，More than four cities of the property market regulation and control policy for fine-tuning，recent“trimming”Action is more frequent。In the first suite standard adjustment、Increase accumulation fund loan limit、Give the tax concessions、Relax land transfer condition, etc。In addition to parts of the city because of the excessive adjustment scale and have been stopped outside，The others all get acquiescence。

　　中央层面十次“喊话”

The central level ten times“propaganda”

　　自今年3月开始，多地新房成交开始回暖，今年6月，房价时隔9个月后止跌回升，虽然上涨幅度微弱，但仍有不少业内人士称房价上涨拐点或现。

Since march this year began，More new began to return to clinch a deal，In June this year，House prices after 9 months after rebound reason，Although rises weak，But there are still a lot of the personage inside course of study says house price rising inflection point or now。

　　7月以来，从不少城市的楼市成交量来看，似乎并无降温之意，不仅包括北京、广州、杭州在内的一线城市继续“高歌猛进”，“地王”近期频现，武汉7月份住宅成交1.4万套，更是让市场对楼市不断升温的态势担忧不已。

Since July，From many urban property market turnover to see，Seem to without cooling and meaning，Includes not only Beijing、guangzhou、Hangzhou, a line of the city to continue“Rapid development”，“left”Recent frequency is，Wuhan in July 14000 sets of housing clinch a deal，Is to let market for the property market, increase the situation concerns unceasingly。

　　楼市近期的频繁“异动”已引起中央注意，6月以来，住建部、发改委、央行、银监会分别澄清“松绑传言。7月以来，住建部、统计局、国土部等部门先后在不同场合表态称调控不放松。

The property market recent frequently“moved”Has caused the attention，Since June of，Live JianBu、Development and reform commission (NDRC)、The central bank、CBRC clarify respectively“Relax rumours。Since July，Live JianBu、Bureau of statistics、Land department and other departments successively in different occasions statement said regulation not relax。

　　7月23日，社科院发布预警称半年后房价存在报复性反弹风险，建议取消首套房优惠。24日，国务院派出8个督查组摸底全国房地产市场，这也是近两个月来中央层面对楼市调控的第十次表态。

July 23，Cass warning says after half an year house price risk existing retaliatory rebound，Suggests that we should cancel the first suite preferential。24，The state council sent eight DuZhaZu touch bottom national real estate market，This is nearly two months to the central level to the property market regulation and control of the first ten times said。

　　二手房交易税费或提高

Second-hand housing transaction taxes and fees or improve

　　根据此前多次督查调研经验，每次调研后都会有新的调控政策出台，因而不少市场人士猜测，此次督查可能是新的调控政策出台的前奏。

According to many times after protecting research experience，Every time after the investigation will have a new regulation policies，So many people in the markets guess，The superintendent himself may be the new control policies on the introduction of the prelude。

　　根据安排，此次督查覆盖了绝大部分东部沿海省份以及部分中西部省份，囊括了全国大部分热点城市。目前，国务院督查组已结束对湖北的督查，知情人士称，督查组对湖北的整体调控情况予以肯定。

According to the arrangement，The superintendent himself covered most of the eastern coastal province and parts of the Midwest provinces，Include the national most hotspot cities。At present，The state council DuZhaZu has to end the hubei province of supervision，According to people familiar with，DuZhaZu in hubei overall control situation to be sure。

　　武汉市房管局人士称，此次督查主要是巩固房地产调控成果，进一步落实既有政策。该人士称，调控肯定无放松可能，但是否会有新政策出台，并不确定。

According to people of room canal bureau in wuhan city，Protecting the main are to strengthen the real estate regulation results，To further implement the policy of both。This personage says，Regulation must be no relaxation may，But if there will be a new policies，Not sure。

　　有权威人士透露，与房地产调控有关的部委仍然手握部分储备政策，准备在适当时机推出。其中，二手房交易税费的提高可能率先出台。同时，扩大房产税试点、对存量空置房屋征税的呼声一直很高，不排除其出台的可能性。

Have an authority revealed，And real estate regulation related ministries and commissions are still hand part of the reserves policy，Ready to launch at the right time。the，Second-hand housing transaction taxes and fees may take the lead in the improvement of issued。At the same time，Expand housing property tax pilot、To stock vacant housing tax call has been high，Does not exclude the possibility of its issued。

　　不过，中指院（华中）研究副总监李国政表示，提高二手房交易税费可能性不大，以武汉为例，目前二手房已实行电脑评估，税费征收比例到位，且二手房成交量并不是特别大。他称，最多是信贷政策再紧一些。

but，Middle finger court（Central China）Deputy director of research LiGuoZheng said，Improve the second-hand house transaction taxes and fees unlikely，In wuhan as an example，At present second-hand house has a computer evaluation，Tax collection ratio in place，And the second-hand house turnover is not particularly big。He says，Most is credit policy to close some。

　　上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭认为，个人住房信息系统建设、保障房建设、房产税试点等长效机制未来将被强调。下半年推出第二批房产税试点城市的可能性较大。本报记者 田立平

Shanghai enjoysmart real estate institute vice President YangGongXu think，Personal housing information system construction、Safeguard room construction、Housing property tax pilot program of long-term mechanism will be emphasized。Introduced in the second half of the second batch of housing property tax pilot city probability。Our reporter TianLiPing

　　实习生 刘娟娟 彭静

Interns LiuJuanJuan PengJing

　　专家观点

Expert view

　　谢国忠：手上有空房子赶快卖掉

xie：Hands free to sell the house

　　29日上午，独立经济学家谢国忠在厦门大学EMBA鼓浪屿名家论坛上抛出“千万别买房子，有空房子赶快卖掉”的观点。

29 morning，Independent economist Andy xie in xiamen university EMBA gulangyu island famous BBS thrown on“Don't buy a house，Free to sell the house”Point of view。

　　谢国忠指出，中国人普遍存在侥幸心理，以前炒股市，现在炒房地产，相信房地产会报复性地涨价，增值空间大。

Xie pointed out that，Chinese widespread fluke mind，Fry stock market before，Now the real estate speculation，Believe that real estate prices will retaliate，Value-added space is large。

　　但是，“房子千万别买，手上有空房子赶快卖掉。”目前市场形势有点转变，可以赶快出手卖掉。如果以房价与收入比算的话，内地房价在全世界是最高的，香港的房价也高，但是房价收入比是15倍，而发达国家只有6倍，但是内地的北京、上海最高已经达到二三十倍。

but，“Don't buy the house，Hands free to sell the house。”The present market situation a little change，Can to sell out。If the house price and income than calculate words，The mainland house prices is the highest in the world，Hong Kong's house prices are high，But the housing price to income ratio is 15 times，And the developed countries only 6 times，But the mainland's Beijing、Shanghai has reached the highest twenty or thirty times。

　　他表示，中国没有那么多的人来消化如此多的房屋，并且2015年中国将会进入老龄化阶段，到2020年开始人口还会下降，房地产高价时代将一去不复返，房价将会一直下降。

He said，China does not have so many people to digest so many houses，And in 2015, China will enter the aging stage，To 2020 start population will also decline，Real estate prices time will never to return，House prices will have been falling。

　　制图 齐心

Mapping work