胡芳洁

HuFangJie

　　在经历过去十年的快速增长之后，中国房地产行业正在跨入另外一个新纪元。平衡、均衡社会各方利益，使得房地产调控将成为这个行业的常态；而土地财政一枝独大的方式，也正在经历严峻的考验和质疑。地产企业在这个过程中，也必将变革自己的生长方式。

In the past ten years after the rapid growth，China's real estate industry is entered another new era。balance、Balance social interests of all parties，Makes the real estate regulation will become the industry's normal；But the land financial a single big way，Also is experiencing severe test and questioned。Real estate enterprise in the process，Will change their growth mode。

　　在由经济观察报、新浪乐居、正略均策举行的中国蓝筹地产评审会上，评审专家基于各自的研究角度，对于房地产形势，以及企业面临的问题、未来的走向予以详尽研判。一个核心论调是，未来中国相当一段时间内，将仍以城市化为经济龙头，然而过去粗放的简单卖地换钱，将一去不返，增加土地资产的公共服务含量、以拉动内需为目标的格局，将是新十年的房地产之路。

In the economic observer、Sina joy in、Is slightly are held for Chinese blue-chip property review meeting，Evaluation expert based on their respective research Angle，For the real estate situation，And the problem faced by the enterprise、The future direction of the judge shall be detailed。A core argument is，The future China quite a period of time，Will still with city into economic leading，However the past extensive simple money of sale，Will never look back，Increase the land assets of public service content、By stimulating domestic demand as the goal pattern，Will be new 10 years of real estate road。

　　经济观察报：如何看待房地产宏观调控与市场的关系以及宏观调控下市场的变化？

Economic observer：How to look at the real estate market macroeconomic regulation and control and the relationship between the macroeconomic regulation and control and the market change？

　　王惠敏（中国房协经营管理委员会秘书长）：我有几个关注的问题，第一，现在，我觉得作为行政主导型的社会，我们应该尽可能的呼吁对在建的、普通商品房的资金支持，政府应该拿出一些办法来，在这块应该拿出资金支持，也让社会稳定，不要不负责任。

WangHuiMin（China's room management committee of the secretary-general）：I have some concerns，The first，now，I think as administrative leading social，We should as far as possible the call for the construction、General commercial housing fund support，The government should take some measures to，In this should take out money to support，Also let social stability，Don't irresponsible。

　　第二，现在这个行业应该说是大家都比较理性，被调控者和调控的政府部门，其实大家都相对理性一点。改变不了世界的时候，只能改变自己了。

The second，Now the industry should say we are more rational，DiaoKongZhe and regulation by the government department，Actually everybody relatively rational point。Can not change the world，Can only change yourself。

　　现在消费者也有点理性，开发商能扛的就扛了。在这种情况下，政府应该考虑一个中长期的产业政策，这也是我们协会一直给方方面面提的问题。房地产行业本身在社会经济过程中，这个历史阶段它的作用很大，但是没有一个相对维护它稳定的产业政策，动不动就拿它开刀，这样反而使这块动摇，其实这是对谁都不利的。这块应该有一个稍微前移一点的、维护产业稳定的一个产业政策，哪怕是一个试行的意见，这样能抗一些风险。

Now consumers a little reason，Developers can carry will carry on the shoulder。In this case，The government should consider a long-term industry policy，This is also our association has been to every aspect questions。The real estate industry itself in the society and economy in the process，This historical stage, the role of the great，But not a relatively maintain it stable industrial policy，Always take it operation，So that on the contrary make the shake，In fact, this is to who are adverse。This should have a slightly a little forward、Maintain stable industry one of the industrial policy，Even if is a trial implementation opinion，This can resistance to some risk。

　　还有一个关注点是市场方面的问题，关于调控的问题，出现两个非常明显的反差。中央政府和地方政府的诉求点几乎完全不一致，这确实是值得反思的一件事。

There is a concern is market problems，About the problem of control，There are two very obvious contrast。The central government and local government's appeal point almost completely not consistent，This is really worthy of reflection one thing。

　　还有一个反差。在国外基本上有这个特点，经济发展景气的时候，地产的价格是往上走的，地产的形势是比较好的。今年非常有意思，我们是经济增长速度在放缓的时候，地产指标在走高。我觉得原因还是行政主导下的人为的不合实际经济规律政策的问题，我觉得这个问题是值得注意的。

There is a contrast。In foreign countries there are basically this feature，Economic development boom time，Real estate prices are up grade the，The real estate situation is good。This year is very interesting，We are the economic growth rate in the slow time，Real estate index in go high。I think reason or administrative leading of the human not actual economic law policy problems，I think this problem is worth attention。

　　还有一点，行业的发展导向。前十年是利润导向，比较追利润，再往后看，风险控制导向应该作为企业非常值得注意的一个问题，原来是想怎么把钱挣到手，现在是怎么把项目做好的同时不要败家。

There is a little，The development of the industry of guide。The first ten years is profit guide，Is chasing profit，Look back，Risk control guide should be an enterprise is very worthy of note a problem，The original is to how to earn money，Now is what the project well at the same time don't spends。

　　汪利娜（中国社科院经济所研究员）：如果我们看一个大的产业，为什么出台这么多调控，房地产的价格还在增长。这是一个长期潜在的因素，一个动力在里面。

WangLiNa（By the Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the economy）：If we see a big industry，Why come so much regulation，Real estate prices are still growing。This is a long term potential factors，A power in it。

　　美国的一个经济学家讲过，讲城市化与房地产的关系，当城市化处在起步阶段的时候，那时候房地产才刚刚起步，到50%、60%的时候房地产价格开始增长，到70%的时候，房地产的价格基本平稳。我们国家按常住人口来算，才刚过49%，如果按户籍来算，我们的城市化率只有30%。潜在的需求没有变，整个预期的升值大的方向也没有变，但是房地产为什么要进行调整呢？

An American economist said，The relationship between urbanization and real estate speak，When the urbanization in the initial phase of time，At that time the real estate has just started，To 50%、60% of the time the real estate prices began to growth，To 70% of the time，Real estate prices basic smoothly。Our country with the permanent population to calculate，Just over 49%，If according to census register to calculate，Our urbanization rate of only 30%。Potential demand does not change，The expected appreciation big direction does not change，But the real estate why to want to make adjustment？

　　2008年出台了4万亿的刺激政策，是为了应对危机，但是不应该同时出台刺激房地产的政策。08年的时候，在4万亿刺激政策出台之前，房地产市场已经做出理性的调整了。如果不是一股脑的政策砸下来，包括信贷、税收，这个市场将是非常理性的走一个平缓的过程。

In 2008 issued a 4 trillion stimulus policy，In order to deal with the crisis，But should not come at the same time stimulate the real estate policy。08 years，In 4 trillion before the stimulus policies，The real estate market has made a rational adjusted。If the policy is not hit down，Including credit、tax，The market will be very rational walk a gradual process。

　　房地产行业出台了刺激政策，各个地方政府所有的政策都出台了，就出现了这种情况。2010年投资增长率是33%，33%的增长在历史上都是没有的，一般都在20%左右。那是一个非常不正常的年份。

The real estate industry issued a stimulus policy，Each local government all policies are introduced，Appear this kind of circumstance。2010 investment growth rate is 33%，33% of the growth in history are not，Generally at around 20%。It was a very unusual year。

　　当市场非理性的时候，死一批企业是非常正常的。2009年和2010年就不是一个正常的年份，那个疯狂下来，这次调整死一批，也是一个市场必须为它的疯狂所付出的代价。

When the market irrational time，Die a batch of enterprise is very normal。In 2009 and 2010 is not a normal year，The crazy down，The adjustment of a batch of death，Is also a market for it must be crazy and paid the price。

　　对于房地产业，大家还是要看大势，看周期，看它在经济中的基本位置，和影响它的基本因素。我觉得不必过分的悲观。各国在城市化的起步阶段，在住房短缺阶段，都用行政化的手段，只不过是多一点少一点的问题。所以我觉得这个事情大家还是淡定一点，基本面没有什么太大的变化。但是为什么我们现阶段对抑制投机这么关注，不仅仅是因为美国的次贷危机，不仅仅由于日本泡沫的教训在那里，关键是我们现在钱太多了，看看老百姓手里35万亿，去年房子卖6万亿，这才15%左右。在整个金融资产过于封闭的时候，储蓄率高、人口密度高的时候，就非常容易使得这些资金向高风险的资产转移。

For the real estate industry，Everyone still want to see half，See cycle，See it in the economy basic position，And influence its basic factors。I think need not too pessimistic。Countries in the early stages of urbanization，In the housing shortage stage，With the administrative means，It's just a little less problem。So I think this thing everyone still calm a little，Fundamentals no too big change。But why do we present to control the speculative so pay attention to，Not only is because of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis，Not only because the Japanese bubble teaching there，The key is we are now too much money，Look at the people hand 35 trillion，Last year the house sold for 6 trillion，This just 15%。In the whole financial assets too when closed，High savings rate、When a high population density，It is very easy to make these funds to high-risk assets transfer。

　　像国外面临着资产的萎缩，现在要萎缩到50%，这是一个资产贬值的过程，是一个非常痛苦的过程，老百姓不是面临着还贷压力，就是面临着破产，要么就是自己抑制消费。欧洲、美国都是面临这样的问题。

As foreign face assets atrophy，Now to shrink to 50%，This is a process of asset depreciation，Is a very painful process，People are not facing owing on the loan pressure，Is faced with bankruptcy，Or is their inhibition consumption。The European、The United States is facing such a problem。

　　你是愿意资产泡沫越来越达，大家兴奋一把，然后再贬值下来好，还是让它有一个很平稳的、根据老百姓的可支配能力，逐渐地升上去好？这就面临一个选择。所以我觉得应该让资产价格回归理性。大家都知道房地产是有潜力的，但是你玩儿过了，什么人都到这里来，这个行业肯定搅混了。

Are you willing to asset bubbles up to more and more，Everyone excited a，Then depreciation down well，Or let it has a very smooth、According to the common people's disposable ability，Gradually rise up good？It is faced with a choice。So I think we should let asset prices return to rational。Everyone knows that real estate is a potential，But you had to play，What person all here，The industry must blend the。

　　经济观察报：地产飞速扩张、其他事宜让位土地财政的做法，应将发生转变。从未来十年或者二十年看，中国经济的结构转型是不可避免的，那么与此匹配的房地产业应是何格局呢？

Economic observer：Real estate rapid expansion、Other matters gave the practice of land finance，Should change will happen。From the next ten years or twenty years to see，China's economic structure transformation is inevitable，So with the matching of the real estate industry should be what? Pattern？

　　贺军（安邦咨询公司合伙人、高级研究员）：未来房地产发展的这个环境会不会发生变化，我们在内部也讨论。中国土地经济这个时代，历史性的已经过了，要到一个新的阶段，新的阶段正在来临，是后土地经济时代。

He jun（AnBang consulting company partner、Senior researcher）：The future of real estate development the environment will not change，We also discuss the internal。China's land economy in this age，Historic has been，Going to a new stage，A new phase is coming，After is land economy era。

　　后土地经济时代是一个新的模式，像过去土地靠出让、开发、销售、来获利的话，它都会遇到一些障碍，它是不可持续的。但是地球还在转，政府也还要运作，企业还要生存，往下怎么发展，到底会怎么样，我们关注后土地经济时代大的环境就很有必要。

Land economy is a new mode，Like the past on the land、development、sales、To profit words，It will meet some obstacles，It is unsustainable。But the earth is still in turn，The government also operation，Enterprise to survival，What down，Exactly what will happen，We focus on land economy big environment is very necessary。

　　在土地经济的时代，所有的资源都是围绕着土地来打造的，发展到现在这个阶段，已经有非常多的问题出现了，其中最主要的有两个特别大的问题，第一，房地产企业导致的经济空心化。把一个产业搞成一个产业园，就是在炒概念，还是寄希望于土地的升值，这种必然是不可持续的。这对国家的竞争力都是一个极大的损害。

In the land economic times，All resources are around the land to create，Development up to now this stage，Has very many problems appeared，One of the most main has two special big problem，The first，Real estate enterprise lead to economic KongXinHua。Put a industry get into an industrial park，Is the Fried concept，Still hope that the land appreciation，This must be unsustainable。The country's competitiveness is a great damage。

　　第二，我们长期关注城市的建设，而没有关注城市管理。城市管理很糟糕，就拿上海那场著名的大火来说，房子越修越高，消防车来了，达不到一个灭火的高度。这就是城市管理的一个缺失。

The second，Our long-term focus on construction of city，Without focusing on urban management。Urban management is very bad，Take the famous Shanghai for the fire，The higher the house repaired，Truck to the，Can not reach the height of a fire。This is a lack of city management。

　　在后土地经济时代，整个城市化应该从以建设为主转向以管理为主，把整个城市看成一个资产，让城市在良好的管理和运营之下。

In the land economy era，The urbanization from the construction should give priority to turn to a management as a Lord，The whole city as an asset，Let city in good management and operation under。

　　如果我们把城市看作一个资产的话，城市运营强调的是管理和治理。对于城市资产的效益而言，所关注的不仅仅是土地和经济的发展，更关注环境、民生、城市文化，这就是城市运营和城市经营不一样的地方。比如在中西部地区，房地产的发展还有一定的上升空间，但是在东部地区、沿海地区和一线城市，房地产的发展已经到了非常过度的一个阶段，就必须从管理运营来提高效率。这样有助于整个房地产行业更加专业。

If we put the city as a word of assets，City operation emphasis is on the management and control。For the benefit of the assets in the city，Concern is not only the land and the development of economy，Pay more attention to the environment、The livelihood of the people、City culture，This is the city operation and management of cities of different place。For example in the Midwest，Real estate development and the rise of a certain space，But in the eastern region、Coastal areas and a line city，Real estate development has come very excessive a stage，We must start from the management operation to improve efficiency。This helps to the whole real estate industry more professional。

　　经济观察报：如何看待今年以来成交量和价格的上涨？接下来，房地产市场的走势将如何？

Economic observer：How to treat since this year volume and prices？The next，The real estate market trend will be how？

　　张寅（虎杰投资机构首席分析师）：

ZhangYin（Tiger jie investment agency chief analyst）：

　　我们认为这次整个的成交量、一些城市的价格反弹，可能要持续到今年11月份，这是我们的基本判断。

We think the whole volume、Some of the city's price rebound，Is likely to continue until November this year，This is our basic judgment。

　　对这次反弹，我们认为是大的调整周期其中的一个反弹，而不是新一轮行情的开始。这个调整周期的起始点是2011年的9月份开始。这个月份是一个很特殊的月份，不单是房地产的调整的一个月份，它可能是我们很多方面的一个结点，一个转折点。标志性的事件就是温州崩盘。

For the rebound，We think is big of an adjustment period one of the rebound，Not the beginning of the new market。This adjustment period starting point is 2011 years starting in September。This month is a very special month，Not only is the adjustment of the real estate of a month，It may be our many aspects of a node，A turning point。Landmark event is wenzhou crash。

　　这次反弹，从价格上来说，5、6月份在一线城市已经很明显了，到6月下旬、7月，已经传播到二线城市、三线城市。但这个成交量无法与2009年和2010年比拟，因为没达到当时的成交量，没有一个城市的成交量创新高。

The rally，For from the price，5、June in a line city has very obvious，To late June、July，Has spread to two line city、Three line city。But the volume can't with 2009 and 2010 analogy，Because of the amount not up to at that time，There is no city of new high volume。

　　未来几个月的价格能不能有大面积的反弹，我认为均价不会有反弹。地方政府和中央政府有一个默契，从现在到明年初，高档盘不让再出来，现在实际上已经形成了一种默契。

In the next few months the price can have a large area of rebound，I think the average price won't rebound。The local government and the central government have a tacit understanding，From now until early next year，High-grade disk not let out again，Now, in fact, have formed a tacit understanding。

　　从资金的角度来说。资金来源，从国内贷款、利用外资、企业自筹、按揭来看，有两个数据下降了，利用外资一直没起来；另一个企业自筹，现在不是不能筹到钱，但无论是银行的，还是私募的，全都是高利贷。

From capital point of view。Capital source，From domestic loans、The use of foreign capital、Enterprise self-raised、Mortgage to see，There are two data down，The use of foreign capital hasn't been up；Another enterprise self-finance，Now is not not way to raise money，But whether the bank，Or the private，Is all usury。

　　企业融资，未来的两年房地产企业可能是债券，整个房地产的前景在资本市场已经不是很好了，最后肯定是走企业债券，未来三年国家想明白了，可能给打开门了。

Enterprise financing，The next two years the real estate enterprise may be bond，The prospect of the whole real estate in the capital market is not very good，The last is certainly go enterprise bonds，The next three years countries want to see，May give opened the door the。

　　整个房地产的毛利率急剧下降，确实是往制造业去了，土地不管是用老模式还是新模式，利润率下降的趋势很明显了。房地产企业的分化大家都不用着急，它已经在淘汰了，不必太在意。

The whole real estate gross profit margin sharply，It is to go to the manufacturing，Land whether old or new mode model，The trend of decline in margins is very obvious。Real estate enterprise differentiation everyone need not worry，It has been eliminated，Don't be too concerned about the。

　　经济观察报：什么样的企业能不断做强？地产企业在做强的过程中，需要注意哪些问题？

Economic observer：What kind of enterprise can continuously and stronger？Real estate enterprises in the process of stronger，What problems need to pay attention to？

　　郝炬（正略钧策管理咨询公司合伙人、副总裁）：这次做蓝筹地产统计的时候，我们也做了一个数据的统计。第一个特点，强者更强，但并不是所有的都可以强。恒大、万科是比较典型的，我们发现在去年包括预测未来的2到3年当中，周转率相对较高的企业，在市场的竞争过程中，必定会占有更高的市场份额，同时有较高的一个净资产的收益率，我们在去年统计的数额不多，但是我们已经明显感觉出来，周转率领先的企业净资产收益率要比后面高出25%左右，我觉得这是一个有意思的特点。

HaoJu（Is slightly jun strategy management consulting company partner、Vice President）：The blue chip real estate statistics do when，We also made a data statistics。The first characteristic，Strong stronger，But not all can be strong。evergrande、Vanke is more typical，We find that in the last year including forecast the next 2 to 3 years，The relatively high turnover of enterprise，In the market competition in the process，Will surely will have a higher market share，At the same time have a higher rate of return on the net assets，We in the last year the amount of statistics not much，But we have obvious feeling out，Turnover leading enterprise net assets yield higher than 25% behind，I think it's an interesting features。

　　第二个特点，明显看出来在这些企业的区域布局上，已经出现分化，现在对于领先类的企业，城市的合理布局、实现区域领先，已经成为这些企业提高经营效率和管理水平方面很重要的因素。我们在统计过程中发现，像万科、融创，他们平均销售规模非常高，可能只要有5个城市就可以卖150亿了。

The second characteristic，Obviously see in these enterprise area layout，Have appear differentiation，Now for the leading class enterprise，Urban rational layout、Realize regional leading，Has become the enterprises to improve operation efficiency and management level of respect is very important factor。We found in statistical process，Like vanke、Melting and，Their average sales scale is very high，May be as long as there are five cities may be sold for 15 billion。

　　在入选的这些企业里，有这样一些趋势，融资的合理对接。在2011年的时候已经出现了这个趋势，发债比例越来越大。像万科，在国内融资出现一些困境的时候，香港还是可以拿到资金的。

The seeds in these enterprises，Have such a few trend，Financing the reasonable butt。In 2011 has appeared the trend，FaZhai proportion is more and more big。Like vanke，In the domestic financing difficulties appear some time，Hong Kong still can get money。

　　从2002年到现在10年时间，行业整体的成熟度已经大大加强。因为未来简单的从土地获取利益的空间会越来越小，中国房地产下一步真正的趋势，是房地产企业盈利发生变化。未来在行业当中谁掌握了能够将土地资源变现、更好的把价值深挖出来的能力，这样的人会在市场上有更大的话语权，他可以跟政府对接。这个确实也是越来越明显的。

From 2002 to now 10 years time，Industry overall maturity has been greatly strengthen。Because the future simple from land profit space will be more and more small，China's real estate next real trend，Is the real estate enterprise earnings change。The future of the industry who master can land resources will be realized、Better put value deep cut out ability，Such people in the market will have greater voice，He can be with the government butt。This really is more and more obvious。

　　王洪（清华大学金融系副教授）：全世界的形势，发达国家人口老龄化，所以房地产也不会有大的变化。第二，生产力的提高最近这几年没有大的技术革命，也没有什么太大的后劲。和全世界比较，中国房地产发展的前景还是很好的，但是目前面临很多的问题，短期和中期来讲是亟需解决的。

Wang hong（Tsinghua university associate professor finance）：The world situation，An aging population in developed countries，So the real estate also won't have big changes。The second，The improvement of productivity in the last few years there was no big technology revolution，Not much of a staying power。And the world is，China's real estate development prospect is very good still，But now face a lot of problems，Short-term and medium-term speaking is to be solved urgently。

　　从企业来看，没怎么死，其实应该让企业死掉，企业就是应该有淘汰机制。现在没有这么一个淘汰机制，企业不见得大就是安全的，还是要看专业能力、市场判断能力、服务市场需求的能力。你看现在，整个结构固化，板块也固化，市场好就涨，不好就跌，就是上市公司也没有很大的差别，整个经济不灵活。

From the enterprise to see，Didn't die，In fact should let enterprise die，Enterprise is there should be a selection mechanism。There is no such a selection mechanism，Enterprise not really big is safe，Still should see professional ability、Market judgment、The ability to service the market demand。You see now，The whole structure curing，Plate also curing，Market good rose，Bad fell，Is the listed company also does not have the very big difference，The economy is not flexible。

　　房地产这个行业的素质能力和其他板块来比还是差一点，但是赚钱比人家要多，尤其是老板。专业能力，的确房地产公司比较差，好多地方供应的盘，富人看不上，但是穷人买不起。要么就是总体供应不足，要么就是供应结构严重失调。所以这种形势以后一定要变化，房地产企业不能单单就是盖楼，一定要考虑这个楼将来的用途，什么类型的人来用，配合什么产业发展，一定要向需求导向、服务导向、产业导向靠拢。

The real estate industry's quality and other plate to than or almost，But more money than the somebody else，Especially the boss。Professional ability，Indeed the real estate company is poorer，A lot of local supply of plate，Despises the rich，But the poor can't afford it。Either overall in short supply，Either supply structure serious disorder。So this kind of situation later must change，Real estate enterprise can not only is towers，Must consider this floor future use，What type of people to use，What with the industrial development，Must to demand-oriented、Service orientation、Industry guide close。

　　房地产不是企业来用就是个人来用，如果实业不能持续发展，房地产是无本之木，早晚要出事。房地产出事了，制造业好，我不担心；要是房地产好，制造业很不好，应该要很担心的。房地产的价格居高不下，货币的价值也居高不下，劳动力成本也是居高不下，逐步地提高，我们整个经济的竞争力在大幅下滑。

Real estate is not enterprise to use is personal to use，If industry can't sustainable development，Real estate is like，Something bad will happen sooner or later。Real estate had an accident，Manufacturing good，I'm not worried about；If real estate good，Manufacturing is very bad，Should be very worried。Real estate prices，The value of one currency is also high，Labor cost is high，Gradually improve，Our entire economic competitiveness in a sharp decline。

　　李国平（高策地产顾问机构董事长）：

LiGuoPing（High property consultant organization for chairman of the board of directors）：

　　企业，死都是自动退的，大部分企业都没有走。例如，我把地给万科，自己留30%的股份，对万科来说很好，我没花钱就把地拿过来了，因为你留着股份，这是一个最好的合作形式。中国的企业太多，原因是太好做了，这个行业一点含金量都没有，昨天做建筑的，做建材的，今天就可以做房地产，所以这个行业门槛太低了。

enterprise，Death is the automatic back，Most of the enterprises have no go。For example，I have to give vanke，You keep 30% of the shares，It's very good for vanke，I didn't spend money to take the coming，Because you keep the stock，This is one of the best form of cooperation。China's enterprise too much，The reason is very good done，The industry a little gold content are not，Do yesterday of the building，Do building materials，Today can do real estate，So the industry the threshold is too low。

　　下一步大企业一定要合并，第一，存量和增量的问题，尤其是一线城市，慢慢地存量都要大于增量，这一定是大的方向。有一个企业在北京做二手房，我们以前都不是很看得上，他们很低调，在业内也没什么声音，在2010年的时候，他的利润是10个亿。今后房地产的交易会发生很大的变化。一手和二手，存量和增量的问题。

The next big enterprise must merge，The first，Stock and incremental problem，Especially a line city，Slowly stock will be greater than increment，It must be a big direction。There is a enterprise in Beijing second-hand house，We've all is not very KanDeShang，They are very low-key，In the industry also nothing important voice，In 2010，His profit is 10。The future of real estate trade fair great changes happened。Skill and second-hand，Stock and incremental problem。

　　企业基本上的发展方向，往三、四线城市发展是对的，未来的城市化不一定大家都是集中的，三、四线可能会成为一个方向。

The development direction of the enterprise basically，To three、Four wire urban development is right，The future urbanization not everyone is concentrated，three、Four wire may be a direction。

　　有很多的小企业他们的专业化，有些企业的商业模式，有些专门做各个地方的地产商业，比如到二、三线城市，都是地下的设施，他拿下来做商铺，做商业街。

There are many small businesses of their specialization，Some enterprise business model，Some special do each local real estate business，Such as to two、Three line city，Are underground facilities，He took down do shops，Do business street。

　　另外我们合作很多的企业，也不是知名的企业，他专门做四线城市的写字楼，做一个公寓，都比当地的住宅卖得贵。

In addition we cooperate a lot of enterprise，Also is not well-known enterprise，He specializes in the four wire city office，Do an apartment，Than the local housing sell very expensive。

　　目前的变化未必就是会死掉，可能存在着很多结构性的机会，能抓住结构性的机会，既是房地产的发展方向也是企业的生存之道。

The change is not necessarily will die，There may be many structural opportunity，Can seize the structural opportunities，Is real estate development direction of the enterprise is also the way of existence。

　　杨熙（新浪乐居总编辑）：从市场来看，开发商觉得最坏的日子已经过去了。整体来讲上半年开发商整体大的策略，核心还是去化，他们在年初卖的盘，按照总投资额测算的利润都是保本的或微亏，现在缓过来了。市场在回暖是显然的。但是，确实大家在变得理性，象2009年、2010年疯狂涨价，不会了，都在惦量。

YangXi（Sina in music editor in chief）：From the market to see，Developers think the most bad days are over。In terms of overall in the first half of the whole developers big strategy，The core or go to change，They sell at the beginning of the disk，According to the total amount of investment measure profit is break-even or micro kui，Now come round again。The market in milder is obviously。but，Does everyone in become rational，Like 2009 years、2010 years crazy prices，Won't，Dian quantity in。

　　其他方面我就不说了。有一点要关注的，正常可能是一个政策方面的，房产税征收的问题，包括市场上还是比较关注的。房地产税我不认为上海重庆的税制，开发商对市场最可怕的就是类似于香港在交易环节的累计税制。当你卖第一套的时候你的税是多少，第二套的时候税要提高，第三套的时候又高。这可能未来对市场会有实际的影响。

Other aspects I won't say it。A little want to pay attention，Normal may be a policy，Housing property tax levy problem，Including market or compare attention。Real estate tax I don't think Shanghai chongqing's tax system，Developers to market the most terrible is similar to the Hong Kong trade links in the accumulative total tax system。When you sell the first set of your tax is much，When the second set of tax to improve，When the third set and high。This may be the future of the market will have a real impact。