本报讯 据《重庆晨报》报道，“房地产宏观调控的政策不会一成不变，但方向是不会变的。”在24日举行的2012年重庆房地产上半年度市场发展论坛上，住房和城乡建设部政策研究中心主任秦虹作了上述分析。针对近期房地产市场的“楼市显示回暖迹象”，最近连续两次降息引发各界对房地产调控政策的种种猜测，秦虹回应说，房地产整体的供需关系并没有得到根本的扭转，成交大幅度反弹特别是价格大幅度反弹是不具备基础的。

Report from our correspondent according to《Chongqing morning paper》reports，“The real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policy will not unalterable，But the direction is will not change。”In the 24th, 2012 held in chongqing real estate market in the first half of the development on the BBS，Housing and rural construction policy research center director QinHong made the above analysis。According to the real estate market in the near future“The property market shows signs of warmer”，In recent successive two cuts caused from all walks of life to the real estate regulation policy rampant speculation，QinHong responded that，The whole real estate supply and demand relations and didn't get fundamental torsion，Clinch a deal price rebound especially greatly greatly rebound is not have basic。

　　“房价短期内难以大涨”

“House prices in the short term is difficult to rose”

　　面对目前的种种猜测，秦虹首先否定了“房价已经出现较快增长”的说法，并指出，当前政策条件下，为卖而买的投机性需求进入市场的动力不大，只要坚持对第三套住房不贷款，坚持把投机买房的杠杆去掉，剩下的就是合理的住房需求了。住宅市场逐步变成以居住需求为主的市场，健康程度会大大增强。

In the face of the present various guess，QinHong first denied“House prices has been increased rapidly”that，And points out that，The current policy conditions，To sell and buy the speculative demand to enter the market power is not big，As long as we persist to the third set of housing not loan，Insist that speculative house lever removed，The rest of the is reasonable housing demand。The housing market gradually turned to become living demands of the market，Health degree would be greatly enhanced。

　　秦虹认为，业内出现回暖学说的主要原因在于今年整个宏观经济增速下滑比较明显，国家在不到一个月时间里连续降了两次息，释放了放松货币的信号。这对未来房地产市场带来了逆转的猜想，从去年一直在观望的一些购房者也开始出手买房子。但事实上，房地产整体的供需关系并没有得到根本的扭转，成交大幅度反弹特别是价格大幅度反弹是不具备基础的。

QinHong think，The theory of milder appear the main reason is that this year the whole macro economic growth obvious decline，Countries in less than a month time continuous drop two interest，Released to relax monetary signal。The future of the real estate market brought a reversal of the conjecture，From last year has been wait-and-see some homeowners also started to sell to buy a house。But in fact，The whole real estate supply and demand relations and didn't get fundamental torsion，Clinch a deal price rebound especially greatly greatly rebound is not have basic。

　　不应对下半年楼市过于乐观

The second half of the property market should not be too optimistic

　　秦虹说，从全国房地产开发企业来看，企业的资金压力目前总体还是存在的，从房地产开发企业的投资和销售两个比值就不难看出端倪，数据显示，1到6月份房地产企业的投资销售比是131.1，这个数字与2008年数字基本持平。

QinHong said，From the national real estate development enterprises，Enterprise's fund pressure at present overall still exist，From the real estate development enterprise investment and sales two ratio is not hard to see clue，Data display，1 to 6 month real estate enterprise investment sales ratio is 131.1，The number and 2008 digital flat。

　　从供应角度看，据国家统计局公布的数据显示，我国至少还有2亿平方米的商品房没有卖出去，这个数据比2008年的1.8亿平方米还要高。

From the perspective of supply，According to the national bureau of statistics show，Our country at least 200 million square meters of commodity house did not sell out，This data than the 2008 to 180 million square meters high。

　　从全国房地产开发投资增速看，今年1~6月为16.6，比2009年高位的30下降了近一半，而土地购置面积增速为-19.9，全国住宅新开工面积的增速是-10.2，沿海发达地区，大城市，新开工面积直线下降十分明显。

From the national real estate development investment growth to see，This year 1 ~ 6 months to 16.6，More than 2009 high 30 dropped by nearly half，But the land acquisition area growth for 19.9，Nationwide residential new commenced area of growth is 10.2，Developed coastal areas，Big cities，New commenced area straight down obviously。

　　基于这些条件，就算目前市场整体上的需求有一部分过去观望的购房者停止观望，也不能够对六月份部分城市成交价格的回升做出一个过于乐观的判断。

Based on these conditions，Even if the present market overall demand is part of the past wait-and-see buyers stop looking，Also not be able to some cities in June to clinch a deal the price, make a too optimistic judgement。

　　差异化信贷抑制投机

Differentiated credit inhibiting speculative

　　经济增速回落情况下，房地产调控政策还将持续多久？调控政策会不会松动？

Economic growth dropped cases，The real estate regulation policy will last long？Regulation and control policy will not loose？

　　秦虹认为，房地产在调控中出现投资增速下降，是市场的必然反应。当前，正处于房地产调控的关键时期，应坚持对投机炒房者不提供贷款支持，防止为保投资增长而损害控投机、稳房价的调控效果。“下半年，房地产调控决心不动摇、方向不改变、力度不放松。”秦虹说，“近两年的房地产调控政策正在出现一些效果，一是将市场上投资和投机性需求大大挤出，二是房价上涨的势头得到遏制，目前的政策需要继续巩固调控效果。在此背景下，政府调控方向，就是如何抑制投机性需求。就是实现差别化信贷。购买首套房就给予支持，如果投资买房子，信贷就不支持，杠杆去掉，投资买房赚钱的可能性就会大幅度降低。”

QinHong think，Real estate investment growth regulation in appear in decline，The market is the inevitable reaction。The current，Is in the key period of the real estate regulation，Should insist on speculation the form does not provide loans to support，Prevent for the investment growth and damage control speculation、Stable house prices control effect。“Second half，Real estate regulation determined to not be moved、Direction does not change、Strength not to relax。”QinHong said，“Nearly two years of real estate regulation policy is appear some effects，One is to put the market investment and speculative demand greatly extrusion，The second is the trend of rising housing prices be contained，The current policy need to continue to consolidate the regulation effect。In this context，Government regulation direction，Is how to curb speculative demand。Is to realize differentiation credit。Buy the first suite will give support，If investment to buy a house，Credit will not support，Lever remove，The possibility of investment money to buy a house will be greatly reduced。”