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任志强:中国楼市房价不会大涨--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-21

  根据中国国家统计局7月18日发布的报告,6月全国70个大中城市房价环比平均涨幅达0.02%,这是该数据在连续下跌8个月后首次出现正增长。

According to China's national bureau of statistics released on July 18, report,June 70 large and medium-sized cities throughout the country house price link an average increase of 0.02%,This is the data in continuous fell 8 months after first appeared positive growth。

  华远地产(600743,股吧)董事长任志强对当前的房地产市场分析称,近期楼市回暖,首先是因为国家宏观调控从调通胀转为稳增长为主,这使得市场信心发生了变化;在购房者信心有所回升之后,国家货币政策也出现变化,出现了下调存款准备金率、降息措施;这两个因素再加上大部分房地产企业正在用打折促销的方式剌激交易量的回升,这就使得近期楼市有所回暖。

Huayuan real estate(600743,guba)The chairman RenZhiJiang to the current real estate market analysis says,The recent property market thaw,First, because national macroeconomic regulation and control from adjustable inflation to steady growth is given priority to,This makes the market confidence has changed;Confidence in the person that buy a house after have rebounded,National monetary policy also appears change,Appeared the deposit reserve rate cut、Measures to cut interest rates;These two factors plus most of the real estate enterprises are using a discount promotion way stimulus volume rebounded,This makes the recent property market has warmed。

  对于房地产市场的走势,任志强认为,三季度房地产市场将进入一个企稳的阶段。“更多的企业还是希望尽快减少库存、回收现金,所以我认为三季度房地产市场将筑底企稳,房价不会大涨和大跌的现象。”在今后的城市化过程中,人口将大量向城市流动,这就会导致城市住房需求总量的增加,房地产市场因此仍有空间。

For the real estate market trend,RenZhiJiang think,Third quarter real estate market will enter a phase of stabilising。“More enterprise or wish to reduce inventory as soon as possible、Recovery cash,So I think the third quarter real estate market will build bottom stabilises,Prices do not rose and crash of the phenomenon。”In the process of urbanization in the future,The population will be a lot to urban mobility,This would lead to the increase of the total urban housing demand,The real estate market so still have space。

  “今年不用担心,房地产还处于有肉可卖的时候,而到了明年,也许会出现没肉可卖的局面。”如果说,猪肉价格的平稳,存栏数是关键,那么在任志强看来,房地产价格要保持平稳,也需要一定“存栏数”。他认为:“比较合理的是保持6个月的库存。”

“Don't worry about this year,Real estate is still in a meat can be selling,By next year,There may be no meat to sell situation。”if,Pork prices stable,CunLanShu is the key,So in the RenZhiJiang looks,Real estate prices will remain stable,Also need a certain“CunLanShu”。He thinks:“Reasonable is keeping six months of inventory。”



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