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北京新房市场陷入滞涨--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-22
商品房市场正在静候后续政策的出台,进入8月,北京新房成交萎缩,价格滞涨。
Commercial housing market are waiting for the follow-up policy appearing,Into August,Beijing bridal chamber clinch a deal the atrophy,Price stagflation。
据21世纪不动产监测的数据显示,8月1日-15日,北京新房成交8141套,环比下降8.07%。21世纪不动产分析师粟日认为,7月以来,北京新房成交量转入下滑通道,主要是符合购房者需求的商品供应量未能及时跟进,同时调控从紧的风声,已对部分购房产生了影响。
According to the 21st century real estate monitoring data show,August 1-15,,Beijing bridal chamber to clinch a deal 8141 sets,Link fell by 8.07%。The 21st century real estate analysts SuRi think,Since July,Beijing bridal chamber volume to glide path,Mainly is accord with the person that buy a house demand of goods supply timely follow up,At the same time control tight of wars,Already had an effect on the part of the purchase。
7-8月是传统的销售淡季,但今年的情况出乎人们的意料,从3月楼市成交回暖持续到6月,北京楼市性价比合适的房源基本被消化殆尽,北京中原市场研究部统计数据显示,今年前7月,北京新建期房住宅签约套数为4.5万套,而同期供应的期房住宅仅2.9万套,目前北京所剩库存只有9万套左右。
7 - August is a traditional slack sales,But this year the situation beyond people's expectation,From march property clinch a deal the milder continue to June,Beijing property market price suitable houses basic be digested completely,Beijing central plains market research department statistics show,Before this year on July,Beijing new forward delivery housing housing contract number sets for 45000 sets,Over the same period, the supply of the forward delivery housing housing only 29000 sets,At present Beijing remnant inventory only about 90000 sets。
与新房市场大为不同的是北京二手房成交升势不减。数据表明,北京8月上半月二手房成交8119套,环比增长7.74%,同比更是大涨114.7%。然而在完全市场化的二手房市场,供不应求的问题也日益显露,房价连续上涨,房主“跳价”已是普遍情形,多位购房者集体竞价的现象已不鲜见。
And the difference on the new home market is Beijing second-hand house clinch a deal the uptrend immortalization。Data show that,Beijing, aug. First half second-hand house clinch a deal 8119 sets,Link growth of 7.74%,Is rose 114.7% year-on-year。However, in the fully market-oriented second-hand house market,Tight problem has become increasingly apparent,House prices rise continuously,homeowners“Jump price”Already is a common case,Many property buyers collective bidding phenomenon has not rare。
楼市已走出谷底,交易量的萎缩主要源于楼市滞涨的判断似被越来越多的人所认同。从21世纪不动产监测数据看,未来两月的开盘数量将比7-8月大幅增加。北京中原预计在9月份入市的项目近35个,其中大部分依然为郊区刚需项目,供应量的增加有望影响“金九银十”的成交量再现上涨,但成交价格是否会随着成交量的增加而继续上涨,楼市“金九银十”的量价走向近来尤其受关注。
The property market has been out of the valley floor,Volume shrinking market mainly comes from the judgment of stagflation like by more and more people identity。From the 21st century real estate monitoring data to see,The future of the number of the opening two months than 7 - August greatly increased。Beijing central plains in September is expected to market project nearly 35,Most of them are still for suburban just need to project,The increase of the supply is expected to impact“Gold nine silver ten”The rising volume reappearance,But whether to clinch a deal the price with the increase of the volume and continued to rise,Property market“Gold nine silver ten”The quantity price trend recently especially concern。
最近是否出台政策和出台政策的力度无疑将是影响“金九银十”楼市的重要因素。业内人士认为,年底前楼市或因针对于楼市之外的一些经济政策的放宽而相应得以放松。从目前整体政策走势特别是信贷政策看,银行间流动性持续好转,信贷政策微调幅度超过预期,但对于实体经济的惜贷情绪仍存,政策仍存在进一步宽松的空间。特别是下半年可能的再次降息和下调存款准备金的信贷松动对市场的影响作用将非常大。而从房企目前公布的半年报来看,63家沪深上市房企利润同比基本持平,但是销售回款和新增借款均出现明显的同比增长。现金流入的明显增长改变了房企的预期,或会对下半年的房价走势和土地市场产生影响。
If recent policy and policy will no doubt is the strength of influence“Gold nine silver ten”The important factor of the property market。The personage inside course of study thinks,By the end of the year because of the property or for the property market outside of some economic policy to relax and corresponding to relax。From the current situation, especially the overall policy credit policy to see,Interbank liquidity improving,Credit policy fine-tuning amplitude than expected,But to the entity economy are still arisen mood,Policy still exist further relaxed space。Especially in the second half of possible once again cut interest rates and deposit reserve cut loose credit on the market effect will be very big。But from room to semi-annual report published so far to see,63 Shanghai and shenzhen listed room enterprise profit year-on-year flat,But sales returns and new loan all appear obvious year-on-year growth。Cash inflow significant growth change room to expectations,Or will for the remainder of the year house price trend and land market impact。
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