晨报记者 徐运

Morning paper reporter XuYun

　　昨天，国家统计局公布了7月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况，与上月相比，70个大中城市中，价格下降的城市有9个，持平的城市有11个，上涨的城市有50个。上海新建住宅价格指数在6月出现上涨的情况后，7月终于“止涨”，但剔除保障房后的新建商品住宅价格指数依然环比微涨0.1%。而二手住宅价格指数依然微涨。

yesterday，The national bureau of statistics announced in July 70 large and medium-sized cities housing sales price changes，Compared with last month，In 70 large and medium-sized cities，The decrease in the prices of city has nine，At the city has 11，Rising city has 50。Shanghai new residential price index in June rose after the situation，July finally“Check up”，But to eliminate security after new commodity housing price index is still link up 0.1%。And second-hand housing price index is still up。

　　50个城市房价环比上涨

50 city house price link up

　　国家统计局发布的数据显示，7月份全国70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅（不含保障性住房）环比价格下降的城市有9个，持平的城市有11个，上涨的城市有50个。

The national bureau of statistics data released by the display，In July 70 the national large and medium-sized cities，New commodity residential house（Does not contain the indemnificatory housing）Link the decrease in the prices of city has nine，At the city has 11，Rising city has 50。

　　从数量上看，7月份我国新建商品住宅价格环比上涨的城市有50个，比6月份增加了25个；从价格涨幅看，7月份新建商品住宅环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过0.7%。

Look from quantity，In July China new commodity housing price link rising city has 50，Increased than June 25；From the price rise see，July new commodity housing link prices in the city，Or were not more than 0.7%。

　　从新建商品住宅价格同比变动看，7月份全国70个大中城市中，价格下降的城市有58个，比6月份增加了1个；持平的城市有1个；上涨的城市有11个，与6月份持平。7月份，同比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过1.0%，涨幅比6月份回落的城市有5个。

From the new commodity housing price year-on-year change to see，In July 70 the national large and medium-sized cities，The decrease in the prices of city has 58，More than six months increased 1；The city has a flat；Rising city has 11，And flat in June。In July，Up prices in the city，Or were not more than 1.0%，Increase in June than down city has five。

　　北上广新房价格指数止跌

North wide bridal chamber reason price index

　　在涨幅程度上，综合70个城市新建商品住宅的环比价格上涨情况，其平均价格指数环比上涨了0.14%，在6月平均价格指数由负转正达到0.02%之后，再次上涨，且涨幅相对于上月大大提升。这一数据不仅是自2011年10月以后的第二个平均环比上涨的月份，同时也是自2011年5月后环比涨幅最高的月份，而同比指数则也出现了最近一年来的首次跌幅收窄。

In or degree，Comprehensive 70 city new commodity housing price rise of annulus，The average price index link up 0.14%，On June average price index from negative become a full member after 0.02%，Rise again，And increase relative to greatly improve last month。This data is not only since October 2011 after the second month average link up，At the same time is also since May 2011 in the highest annual after annulus，And compared to the index is also appeared a recent years of decline for the first time, narrow。

　　新建商品住宅之外，二手房价同样继续保持着环比上涨的态势，且环比价格指数也再次走高，平均环比价格指数达到0.11%，相比上月0.09%的涨幅再次扩大。

New outside commodity residential house，Second-hand house prices also continue to keep the link rising trend，And link price index also move up again，Average link price index reached 0.11%，Compared to the 0.09% increase last month to expand again。

　　据统计，7月份北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市新建住宅平均价格指数为 100.15，环比上涨0.15%，与6月份持平。二手房平均价格指数为 100.35，环比上涨0.35%，涨幅较6月份有所扩大。从7月份北京、上海、广州、深圳价格指数来看，新建住宅及二手房价格指数全面止跌。

According to the statistics，July, Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou、Shenzhen city a line new residential average price index is 100.15，Link up 0.15%，And flat in June。Second-hand house average price index is 100.35，Link up 0.35%，Or a June have somewhat expanded。From July Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou、Shenzhen price index to see，New residential and second-hand house price index comprehensive reason。

　　7月下旬，国务院组织的督察组分赴各地调研，一方面是通过实际调研行动，稳定调控预期；另一方面，也对楼市运行状况作个摸底，为后续储备政策的出台铺路。随着市场的不断回暖，对于调控的预期也在不断的增加，市场预期很可能会随着实质性政策的出台而发生扭转。

Late July，The organization of the state council DuChaZu had fanned out across research，One is through the practical investigation action，Stability control expected；On the other hand，Also on the property market running status as a touch bottom，For subsequent reserve policy appearing paving。Along with the market constantly milder，To control the expected is also in constant increase，Market expectations will likely as substantive policy appearing and produce torsion。

　　购房者追涨意愿不及6月

The person that buy a house will chase after go up less than 6 months

　　二手房方面，根据国家统计局公布的数据，7月上海二手住宅价格指数环比6月上涨0.2%，同比去年7月则下跌1.6%。

Second-hand house aspects，According to the national bureau of statistics，July Shanghai second-hand housing price index link June rose 0.2%，Year-on-year July of last year, fell 1.6%。

　　在8月初，各大中介公司和研究机构数据即已反映出二手房价格走势。7月上海二手房指数报告指出，在指数系统监测的所有板块中，77%上涨，14%下跌，9%走平。上海二手房指数办公室认为，尽管7月楼市仍处在价格反弹趋势中，但反弹力度减弱，且成交量从高点开始回落。而且总体而言，持平板块增多，上涨板块减少，购房者追涨意愿不及6月。

In early August，Major intermediary companies and research institutions data that is already reflect the second-hand house price trend。July Shanghai housing index report says，In the index system of monitoring all the plates，Rising 77%，Fell 14%，9% went flat。Shanghai housing index office think，Although July the property market is still in prices rebound in the trend，But the rebound strength weakened，And from the high volume started to drop。And in general，Flat plate increased，Rise plate to reduce，The person that buy a house will chase after go up less than 6 months。

　　7月市区二手房市场明显受到一手豪宅成交回升影响，业主对后市普遍乐观，或见机涨价、跳价，或捂盘转投租赁。而改善型房源主要分布在市区和新兴城区，这类房源尤其是大户型相对紧俏，一部分高端客重燃房产保值心理出手，甚至投资客也零星再现。这种局面使业主在7月纷纷上调挂牌价，最高幅度达5%，签约时临时跳价1%-3%现象也接连发生。

July the second-hand house market clearly influenced by the hand a person of extraordinary powers curtilage clinch a deal the rebound effect，The owner for the market outlook generally optimistic，Or hoist your sail when the wind is price、Jump price，Or cover plate heading for lease。And improve type houses are mainly distributed in the urban areas and new city，This kind of houses and especially with the big family relatively tight，Part of the high-end customer reignition housing credit psychological make moves，Even investment guest also sporadic reappearance。This situation to make the owner in July are listed price rise，Highest 5%，The time of the conclusion of the temporary jump price 1% 3% phenomenon and the ensuing。

　　同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟认为，尽管5月以来房地产市场成交量出现了回升的局面，但是至今还没有带动房地产投资规模回升或出现趋势性回暖的局面，因此，整体楼市尤其是开发企业资金面相对较为紧张的”基本面“并没有改变，开发企业对于当前市场回暖趋势仍然偏向谨慎。

With strategy consulting research center director ZhangHongWei think，Although the real estate market turnover since may appear the resilience of the situation，But so far no drive real estate investment scale back or appear trend milder situation，therefore，The overall market especially development enterprise financing area relatively more nervous”fundamentals“Does not change，The development enterprise for current market warmer trend still turn to care。

　　[业内分析]

[the analysis]

　　房地产调控已在十字路口

Real estate regulation already at the crossroads

　　随着房价的上涨，持续一年多的房地产调控也已经进入到了一个十字路口。

With the rise in house prices，For more than a year of real estate regulation has also entered a crossroads。

　　链家地产市场研究部分析师常清认为，未来的政策一方面需要保持目前房地产市场的平稳，增强市场未来供应的信心。另一方面，盘活存量房市场，增强二手房买卖活跃度，建立高效的流通机制，此外，进一步加大保障房供应力度，着力解决低收入人群的住房需求。

Chain home real estate market research analysts think a temperamental predominance，The future policy on one hand need to keep the stable real estate market at present，Strengthens the market future supply of confidence。On the other hand，Revitalize the stock room market，Enhance secondary trading active degree，To establish effective circulation mechanism，In addition，Further intensify efforts to ensure room supply，To solve the housing needs of low-income people。

　　北京中原市场研究部总监张大伟表示，目前整体市场的成交复苏仍非普遍性，市场虽然松动，但是限购、限贷依然指向投机、投资需求入市，这样就难以支撑全面回暖。所以虽然量价可能同涨，但是价格上涨幅度有限。

Beijing central plains market research department director ZhangDaWei said，At present the overall market to clinch a deal the recovery is still not universal，Market although loose，But restricted、Limit credit still point to speculative、Investment demand market，So it will be difficult to support comprehensive milder。So although the quantity price may rise with，But prices limited。

　　不过张大伟也同时提醒，现在楼市的反弹已成共识，虽然目前的反弹力度还在可控范围内。但是一旦形成过量反弹，调控政策的公信力将再次减弱。所以预调、微调的必要性非常大。 “截至目前，在楼市调控的文件中对楼市调控的目的主要描述都为抑制过快上涨，限制投资、投机需求入市。下调房价并不是楼市调控的主要目的，从这个程度看，目前全国主要城市的房价相比去年同期的最高点均还有一定差距，调控的目标基本达到。 ”

But ZhangDaWei also remind，Now the property market rebound has become a consensus，Although the current rebound strength is still in controllable range。But once formed excess rebound，Regulation policy credibility will be weakened again。So preset、The necessity of fine is very big。 “So far，In the property market regulation and control file for the purpose of market regulation and control the main description to curb the rising too fast，Limited investment、Speculative market demand。Cut prices is not the main purpose of the property market regulation，See from this degree，At present the national major cities housing prices compared with the same period last year are there is still a certain gap between the highest，Regulation goal to achieve basically。 ”

　　张大伟表示，加强对地方政府的监管问责、严格执行预售资金监管、进一步规范预售流程，甚至限制房价涨幅目标等等都可能成为下一阶段调控的储备政策，而这些政策能否逐渐出台并发挥作用，将成为影响未来市场走向的重要因素。（据新华社报道）

ZhangDaWei said，To strengthen the supervision of the local government accountability、Strict implementation of the pre-sale funds supervision、Further standardize open to booking a process，Even restricting the housing price target and so on could be the next phase control reserve policy，And these policy could gradually come and play a role，Will become influence future market trend of the important factors。（According to xinhua news agency）