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上海二手房反弹势头减弱--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-26

  2012年7月上海二手房指数为2582点,较上月上涨3点,环比上涨0.12%,涨幅相比上月缩小0.04个百分点。这是继8个月下跌走平、上月二手房指数出现反弹后的连续反弹。在指数系统监测的所有板块中,77%上涨,14%下跌,9%走平。

In July 2012, Shanghai housing index for 2582 points,A rose last month at 3 o 'clock,Link up 0.12%,Compared to shrink by more than 0.04% increase last month。This is the eight months down go flat、Last month second-hand housing index rebounded after the continuous rebound。In the index system of monitoring all the plates,Rising 77%,Fell 14%,9% went flat。

  上海二手房指数办公室认为,尽管7月楼市仍处在价格反弹趋势中,但反弹力度减弱,且成交量从高点开始回落。这种价格走势变化伴随成交量回落,主要来自于各地政策微调的影响:7月利率再次下调,购房成本降低,但政府“决不让房价反弹”的连续表态,让原本打算出手的部分消费者及稀少的投资客止步,二手房市场在“救市”及“恐涨”预期两种相悖心理下运行。于是,价格反弹难获买家认同,7月楼市又属传统淡季,整个二手房市场客源减少,成交周期拉长,成交量回落。

Shanghai housing index office think,Although July the property market is still in prices rebound in the trend,But the rebound strength weakened,And from the high volume started to drop。This kind of price trend change along with volume dropped,Mainly come from all over to the influence of fine-tuning:7 month cut again,Purchase cost reduction,But the government“Never let house prices rebound”Continuous declare,Let had originally planned to sell part of consumers and scarce investment passenger walking,Second-hand house market in“Save city”and“Fear of a”Expected two contrary psychology run。so,Price rebound difficult the buyers agree,July the property market and belongs to the traditional off-season,The second-hand house market customers reduce,Clinch a deal cycle spin,Volume dropped。

  分析认为,7月成交创新高没有得到延续,在于中央的连续喊话,改变了购房者“恐涨”和“救市”预期,出手减缓,而业主拒绝议价,致使成交周期被拉长。反弹不等于反转,反转将使楼市调控功亏一篑。虽有两次降息及差别化信贷政策,但不足以支撑房价继续上涨,反弹动力明显不足。围绕“稳增长”与“控房价”目标,买卖双方预期将分化,楼市或再次步入博弈期,重现“拉锯战”。

According to analysis,July clinch a deal the innovation high didn't get continue,In the central continuous propaganda,Changed the person that buy a house“Fear of a”and“Save city”expected,Make moves slow,But the owners refused to bargain,Clinch a deal the cycle is stretched。Rebound is not equal to reverse,Reversal will make the market regulation and control the lip。Although have two cuts and differentiation credit policy,But not enough to support prices continued to rise,Bounce power is not enough。around“Steady growth”and“Control prices”target,Buyers and sellers is expected to differentiation,The property market or again into the game period,reproduction“Seesaw battle”。



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