7月18日，统计局公布70个大中城市房价数据。新建商品住宅方面，从环比看，价格下降的城市有21个，持平的城市有24个；从同比看，价格下降的城市有57个，涨幅回落的城市有6个。二手住宅方面，从环比看，价格下降的城市有19个，持平的城市有20个；从同比看，70个大中城市中，价格下降的城市有58个，同比涨幅回落的城市有8个。对此，方正证券(601901,股吧)发布研报进行了点评。

On July 18,，Bureau of statistics released 70 large and medium-sized cities housing prices data。New commodity housing aspects，From the link to see，The decrease in the prices of city has 21，At the city has 24；From up to see，The decrease in the prices of city has 57，Or back city have six。Second-hand housing aspects，From the link to see，The decrease in the prices of city has 19，At the city has 20；From up to see，In 70 large and medium-sized cities，The decrease in the prices of city has 58，Up or down city has eight。this，Founder securities(601901,guba)Release research report has carried on the review。

　　研报认为，6月房价反弹意味着本轮房地产调控背景下的房价回落进入尾声，理由有三：一是开放商报价和购房网签价同时回升意味着以价换量阶段的结束，商品房销售量价的持续回升代表着供求匹配趋于正常；二是降息周期的推进以及居民购房贷款的持续低位运行意味着需求仍有很大的释放空间；三是经济底部企稳背景下，房地产调控不会对房价形成新的压力，下半年房价底部小幅回升的可能性大。

Research report think，June house prices rebound means that epicycle real estate regulation under the background of house prices will fall into the end，Reason have three：One is to open business quotation and buys a sign at the same time and price rebound means to the end of the price in quantity stage，Commercial housing sales price continue to rise represents a matching supply and demand tends to be normal；The second is the advancement of rate cut cycle and residents purchase loans continued low operation means that demand still has great release space；The third is under the background of economic bottom stabilises，Real estate regulation not to the house form new pressure，The second half of the bottom prices rebounded slightly the possibility of big。

　　研报称，方正证券对中国房地产市场有一个基本的经验观察：市场景气指数领先价格变化约1个季度，成交量的变化领先价格变化1-2个月，价格增速领先投资增速约1个季度。一季度以来，房地产企业景气指数和行业景气指数均环比上升，1月开始70个大中城市房价指数显示的市场景气度也开始稳步回升，今年3月开始全国商品房销售面积降速持续放缓，而商品房销售均价同比增速开始稳步回升。随着刚需的不断释放，市场景气度回升，商品房销售回暖，库存销售比从4月的4.8降至5月的4.2，到6月仅为2.8。在销售的回暖尤其是库存销售比大幅回落的背景下，企业加速完工在建房屋或开建新屋的积极性也将增加，房地产投资增速有望在三季度逐步企稳回升，房地产调控的经济影响或逐步走向末端。

Research reports，Founder securities to China's real estate market has a basic experience observation：Market boom index lead price changes about a quarter，The change of volume lead price changes 1 to 2 months，Price growth leading investment growth for about a quarter。Since the first quarter，Real estate enterprise boom index and industry boom index are link up，January 70 large and medium-sized cities housing prices index display market boom of also began to rebound steadily，In march this year began to national commodity house sales area speed down continued slowdown，And the sale of commercial houses average price year-on-year growth began to rebound steadily。With just needed are constantly released，The boom of the market rebound，Sales of commercial property milder，Inventory sales than from April 4.8 drop to 5 months of 4.2，To June was only 2.8。In the sale of milder especially inventory sales ratio under the background of fall sharply，Enterprise accelerating completion construction in a house or open a new house enthusiasm will also increase，Real estate investment growth in the third quarter is expected to gradually stabilising picks up，Real estate regulation economic impact or gradually moving towards the end。

　　（《证券时报》快讯中心）

（《Securities times》Express center）