房地产市场在最近一段时间表现十分活跃，成交量迅速回升。在国家统计局18日公布的“6月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况”中，数据显示新房价格环比上涨的城市数量大增，而且一二线城市和限购类城市居多。在国家多部委强调不放松楼市调控的大背景下，面对回暖现实，楼市调控政策再度从紧的可能性也进一步加大。

The real estate market in recent period of time, performance is very active，Volume rebounded quickly。In the national bureau of statistics released 18“June 70 large and medium-sized cities housing sales price changes”in，Data showed that new house price link rising city a number，And a second city and restricted class city is in the majority。In the national many ministries emphasize don't relax market regulation and control of big background，In the face of the milder reality，The property market regulation and control policy tight again the possibility of further increase。

　　降息，稳增长间接推动楼市

Cut interest rates，Steady growth indirectly promote the property market

　　在国内国际经济复杂形势下，央行一个月内先后两次降息，并且没有采取降低存款准备金率的温和手段，超预期的政策调整频率和力度潜在确认了我国经济“滞增胀减”的宏观经济整体特征。业内资深人士分析：“降息，一方面间接对房地产企业资金链起到了一定的缓解作用；另一方面个人购房总成本降低。”

In the domestic and international economic complex situation，The central bank has two a month to cut interest rates，And not to reduce the rate of deposit reserve mild means，Super expected policy adjustment frequency and strength potential confirmed that our country economy“Hysteresis increasing expansion minus”Macroeconomic overall characteristic。The analyst：“Cut interest rates，On the one hand to real estate enterprises indirect capital chain, and play a certain role of ease；On the other hand the individual buys a total cost reduction。”

　　一位地产分析人士指出：“在最近一段时间内的市场回暖和房价重新上涨预期的双重影响下，前段时间处于观望中的潜在置业者开始积极入市。另外降息确实可以使首次置业者获得购房实际好处，所以近期市场回暖表现也有一定的合理性。”

A real estate analysts pointed out：“In the last a period of time inside of market milder and house prices to rise expected under the influence of double，Some time ago in the wait-and-see buyers of the potential of the market to start actively。In addition to cut interest rates for the first time can really make home buyers obtain the actual benefit，So the recent market thaw the performance also has certain rationality。”

　　楼市调控 政策升级预期加大

The property market regulation and control policy upgrade expected increase

　　在地方政府为缓解财政压力，试图恢复土地财政，不断采取各种措施微调房地产政策的同时，各地楼市出现明显的回暖趋势，房地产成交量快速上升，新建商品住宅价格也在连跌8个月后，首次出现正增长，较上月上升了0.02%。

In the local government to ease the financial pressure，Tried to recover the land finance，Constantly take all kinds of measures trimming real estate policy at the same time，All the property market appear obvious milder trend，Real estate turnover rapid rise，New commodity housing price also is in even fell 8 months later，First appeared positive growth，A rose 0.02% last month。

　　为此，中央政府各部门不断出面表态，表示了对调控政策的坚定态度。温总理在不同场合也多次表达了坚定落实房地产调控政策，严格实施限购，不让房价反弹的决心。

therefore，The central government departments constantly to declare，Expressed regulation policy of resolute attitude。Premier wen jiabao in different occasions has also repeatedly expressed firm implement real estate regulation policy，Strictly implement purchasing，Don't let house prices rebound determination。

　　面对房地产市场已经回暖的事实，有专家表示：“促进房价合理回归是中央政府的坚定决心，而房价不上涨则是楼市调控的底线。如果按照目前的形势，楼市继续回暖，并且房价出现全面的或者是大幅度的上涨，这是中央政府所不能容忍的，再出台新的调控措施也是有其可能性的。”

In the face of the real estate market has warmed facts，Experts say：“Promote the prices reasonable regression is the central government's determination，And house prices do not rise is the property market regulation and control of the bottom line。If, in accordance with the current situation，Market continue to milder，And house prices appear comprehensive or a substantial increase，This is the central government can't stand，To introduce new regulation measures also is to have the possibility。”

　　有位开发商也表达了类似的观点：“现在一些开发商在宣传房地产市场回暖，楼市将触底反弹。而且，现在成交量也有了很大的增加。但是，这些成交量的增加是"降价走量"的结果，如果开发商不顾形势的涨价，到时候楼市就形成了"量价齐涨"的局面，那么很有可能迫使政府出台更严厉的调控措施。”

A developer also expressed a similar view：“Now some developers in the promotion real estate market thaw，The property market will touch bottom rebound。and，Now volumes are also has been a great increase。but，The volume is increased"Walk quantity price"results，If developers regardless of the situation of the rise in price，When the property market is formed"Quantity price drawn up"situation，So is likely to force the government has more stringent control measures。”

　　对于下一步的楼市政策，专家表示：“我们调控的最终目标是房地产市场回归到健康合理的发展道路上来，像现在的限购、限贷行政命令式的政策不是长久之计，如何出台综合税费措施，使房地产调控制度化、规范化运行，才能真正保证房地产市场的长期健康发展。”

For the next step in the housing market policy，Experts say：“We control ultimate goal is to the real estate market return to health and reasonable development path，As of now is restricted、Limit credit administrative imperative policy is no longer an option，How to come comprehensive tax measures，The real estate regulation institutionalization、Standardization operation，To really ensure that the real estate market's long-term healthy development。”

　　本刊记者 陈英男

This reporter ChenYingNan