中国人民银行分支行行长座谈会强调，要增强政策调控的“前瞻性、针对性和有效性”。对于政策“有效性”的强调已经提高到了一个前所未有的高度。而“有效性”又需借力于政策的“精细化水平”。

The people's bank of China governor emphasized those symposium，To enhance policy regulation“prospective、Pertinence and effectiveness”。For policy“effectiveness”The emphasis has been increased to an unprecedented level。and“effectiveness”And for the borrows from policy“Refinement level”。

　　下一阶段，经济形势的复杂性将依然持续，货币政策如何更好地发挥 其有效性并服务于“稳增长”，是值得深入探讨的话题。本报邀请中国银行(601988,股吧)国际金融研究所副所长宗良、兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委、华创证券研究所副所长华中炜等业内专家就该问题进行讨论。

Next stage，The complexity of the economic situation will still continue，Monetary policy how better to play its effectiveness and service to“Steady growth”，It is worth to study further topic。Our newspaper invited the bank of China(601988,Shares it)The international financial, deputy director of institute ZongLiang、Industrial bank(601166,Shares it)Chief economist lu commissar、China and Hui central China securities, deputy director of institute and industry experts will discuss the problem。

　　⊙记者 苗燕 李丹丹 ○编辑 枫林

MiaoYan ⊙ reporter li dandan ○ edit maple's woods

　

　嘉宾 guests

　　中国银行国际金融研究所副所长 宗良 The bank of China international financial, deputy director of institute ZongLiang

　　兴业银行首席经济学家 鲁政委 The bank's chief economist lu commissar

　　华创证券研究所副所长 华中炜 China and the deputy director of the institute Hui central China securities

　　有 效 性 Have effect of

　　○宗良：前瞻性、针对性和有效性这一顺序表明：如果做到了货币政策前瞻性、针对性，货币政策预期会对经济起到明显的支持作用。

○ ZongLiang：prospective、This order is effective and good show：If be the prospective monetary policy、targeted，Monetary policy is expected to economic rise obvious function of support。

　　○鲁政委：现在逆回购可以非常精确地控制资金“水量”，这就是精细化；未来有效性取决于如何引导金融机构按照市场原则和宏观调控的导向来合适的定价

○ lu commissar：Now inverse can be very precise control of the buyback funds“water”，This is fine；The future effectiveness depends on how to guide institutions according to the principle of macroeconomic regulation and market oriented to appropriate pricing

　　上海证券报：央行近期的表态更加强调货币政策的有效性。您觉得从这一表述的变化，能否看出下一阶段货币政策操作思路的微调？对于“提高政策的精细化水平，增强有效性”该如何理解？未来央行还可能在哪些方面加强精细化操作？

Shanghai stock certificate report：The central bank of the recent statement more emphasis on the effectiveness of monetary policy。You think the statement from the change，Can see the next phase monetary policy ideas of fine-tuning？for“Improve the level of company policy，Enhance effectiveness”How to understand？The future may be in what central bank also strengthening the fine operation？

　　宗良：政策调控表述的变化看似微小，但包含较深的意义。一是将前瞻性提到最前，表明了对先导性经济指标的重视。前瞻性就是要加强预判，基于对未来较长一段时间内整体经济形势判断的基础上进行调控，而不仅仅针对现阶段情况。二是有效性取代了灵活性，被提至更重要的位置，表明更加关注政策的实际效果。三是前瞻性、针对性和有效性这一顺序表明：如果做到了货币政策前瞻性、针对性，货币政策预期会对经济起到明显的支持作用。

ZongLiang：The change of policy control expression appears small，But contain deep significance。One is to put the most prospective mentioned before，Shows the progress of economic index value。Prospective is to strengthen the anticipation，Based on the future of a long a period of time within the overall economic situation based on the analysis of the control，And not just for present situation。2 it is validity replaced the flexibility，Up to more important position，Show that pay more attention to the actual effect of policy。Three is prospective、This order is effective and good show：If be the prospective monetary policy、targeted，Monetary policy is expected to economic rise obvious function of support。

　　要“提高政策的精细化水平，增强有效性”一是要注意把握政策的时机。二是加强政策工具组合间的协调与配合。三是要准确把握调控力度和频度。央行今年推出正逆回购的期限变化及差别化存款准备金率政策等管理工具组合，灵活调节了银行体系流动性，表明政策调控的工具组合的搭配更加协调，正是精细化管理思想的体现。

to“Improve the level of company policy，Enhance effectiveness”One is to pay attention to grasp the timing of the policy。Two is to strengthen policy tools combination of coordination and cooperation between。3 it is to want to accurately control power and frequency。The central bank rolls out this year is the inverse of the buyback period change and differentiation, the deposit reserve rate policy and management tools combination，Nimbly adjusted a banking system liquidity，That policy control tool combination collocation more harmonious，It is the embodiment of the fine management thought。

　　鲁政委：增加有效性的含义应该是指除强调未来根据形势变化要进行新的政策调整之外，更为重要的是要落实好前期出台的政策，使其效果能更好地发挥。央行今年其实给予了市场更多的选择空间，但效果还有待进一步提升。从存款和贷款利率浮动区间调整之后的情况观察，未来的有效性，取决于如何引导金融机构按照市场原则和宏观调控的导向来合适的定价。因此我们也关注到了一些与此有关的可能出现的创新的端倪。

Lu commissar：Increase the effectiveness of meaning should be emphasized in the future than those on the situation changes in the new policy adjustment away，More important is to implement the policy，Make the effect can better to play。The central bank in the market this year to more choice，But the effect remains to be further promoted。From savings and loan interest rate adjustment of floating interval after observation，The effectiveness of the future，Depends on how to guide institutions according to the principle of macroeconomic regulation and market oriented to appropriate pricing。So we also noticed the some about this possible innovative grandeur。

　　谈到精细化操作，与以往相比，逆回购被更为常态化的使用了。尤其是从今年6月末开始，逆回购变得更加常态化，在节奏上非常有规律，基本上每周都做，变得像过去发一年期和三年期的央票一样。现在逆回购可以非常精确地控制资金“水量”，这就是精细化。而且我们欣喜地看到，招标利率也似乎日渐显示出了一些规律性。成熟市场经济的央行都有一个引导市场的政策指标利率，随着央票停发，我们觉得逆回购和正回购有可能建立起一个利率走廊。通过逆回购的利率的变化，能够传递出央行对于目前的利率的和通胀水平的看法，对于政策松紧的一个信号，从而未来有可能可以引导贷款利率的变化。

Talking about fine operation，Than ever，The more normal by inverse repurchase of use。Especially since the end of June this year began，Inverse repurchase become more normal digestion，In very regular rhythm，Basically do every week，Become like the past year during the epicenter of the hair and ticket。Now inverse can be very precise control of the buyback funds“water”，This is fine。And we are delighted to see，Bidding interest rates also seems to be increasingly shows some regularity。Mature market economy of the central bank has a guide market target interest rate policy，With ticket epicenter of hair，We think the inverse repurchase and is the buyback may set up a rate corridor。Through the inverse of the buyback interest rate changes，Can pass a central bank for the current interest rate and inflation levels of the view，For a reasonable policy signals，Thus the future may guide the change of the loan interest rate。

　　对于未来可能会采取的精细化操作，我觉得也有很多可能。如有媒体报道说央行正在考虑建立一个最优贷款利率的机制，我觉得是可行的。人民银行是不是应该简化对于贷款期限的定价，更多的让银行自主对不同期限的利率来进行贷款定价，这恐怕未来是个趋势。对于存款利率的定价，市场也有传闻称央行要调整存款利率的档次。方向是对的，但是采取的措施值得认真思索。我认为，如果要真的增强资金对于银行的粘度，更重要的是要允许银行发行CD，这是迫在眉睫的事情。

For the future may take fine operation，I think also has a lot of may。Such as media reports said the central bank is considering a the best loan interest rate mechanism，I think is feasible。The people's bank is should be simplified for loan time limit pricing，More let bank interest rates for different time limit independent to loan pricing，I'm afraid that this is a trend in the future。For deposit interest rate pricing，The market there is speculation that the central bank should adjust the class of the deposit rate。Direction is right，But the measures taken deserves serious thinking。I think，If you want to really increase the viscosity of the funds for the bank，More important is to allow Banks to issue CDS，It is urgent things。

　　前瞻性 prospective

　　○鲁政委：稳增长并不意味着利率越低越好；未来的经济形势并没有一个结论性的明确定论，未来到底是走向通胀还是通缩，取决于政策的选择。

○ lu commissar：Steady growth does not mean that interest rates as low as possible；The future of economic situation and not a conclusive clear conclusion，The future is it to inflation or deflation，Depends on the policy choice。

　　○宗良：货币政策的调节可能将更多地依赖公开市场操作，对市场的流动性进行微调控，以便在“稳增长”和“防通胀”之间寻求一个平衡点。

○ ZongLiang：The adjustment of the monetary policy may will depend more on the open market operation，To market liquidity for the regulation，In order to“Steady growth”and“Against inflation”Between seek a balance point。

　　上海证券报：7月CPI同比增1.8%，货币政策的操作空间存在加大的可能。但央行近日仍然提醒说，当前物价对需求扩张仍比较敏感，扩张性政策刺激增长的效应可能下降、刺激通胀的效应则在增强。您认为，货币政策如何在“稳增长”和“防通胀”之间获取政策的平衡？

Shanghai stock certificate report：July CPI increase 1.8% year-on-year，The operation of the monetary policy space of the increase of may。But the central bank recently still remind said，The current price of demand expansion remains are more sensitive，Expansionary policies of spurring growth effects may decline、Stimulating inflation is in effect increased。Do you think，How monetary policy in“Steady growth”and“Against inflation”For the balance between policy？

　　鲁政委：即便为了稳增长，也不意味着利率越低越好。而且，如果要做权衡，我们的眼光不能仅放在货币政策上，我们应该更多地关注财政减税效应的落实，这更关键。

Lu commissar：Even in order to steady growth，Nor does it mean that interest rates as low as possible。and，If you weigh，Our vision not only on monetary policy，We should pay more attention to the implementation of financial tax cuts effect，This more key。

　　以目前的情况看，企业税收的问题远比财务成本的问题严重。据统计，从2002年到2009年，财务费用相对于主营业务收入的占比，与主营业务的税金及附加的占比是基本相当的。但是2009年以后，主营业务的税金及附加显著地上升，目前其比例比财务费用的比例高出了0.8个百分点。所以，目前对于企业，最重要的问题恐怕是要关注到税收负担偏重的问题。2009年恰恰也是启动了4万亿的刺激政策，政府需要花更多的钱去刺激经济，对应着就是税收要收更多的钱。所以财政刺激政策，在实质上不自觉地加重了企业税负。

For now look，Enterprise tax problems than the financial cost a serious problem。According to the statistics，From 2002 to 2009，The financial costs relative to the main business of the income than，And the main business tax and additional accounts for the basic quite than is。But 2009 years later，Main business taxes and add significantly to rise，At present the financial cost rate than the proportion of the higher than 0.8%。so，At present for enterprise，The most important question I'm afraid it is paid close attention to the problem of lay particular stress on tax burden。In 2009, just also is the start of the 4 trillion stimulus，The government needs to spend more money to stimulate the economy，Corresponding to the tax charge is more money。So fiscal stimulus policies，In essence of not consciously increased enterprise tax burden。

　　对于通胀，货币政策要更具前瞻性，不仅仅看到年内，还要看到明年；不仅要看到国内，还要看国外。我们要关注价格上涨所带来的通胀预期变化，同时也要关注随着未来投资刺激的力度有所加大，也会引发通胀预期。如果说我们的刺激力度很温和，并非大力度，而人民币有效汇率仍然处于比较强的位置，很可能我们要当心1997年到2003年通货紧缩的重来。因为一个货币的高估对内就是通货紧缩。实际上，未来的经济形势并没有一个结论性的明确定论，未来到底是走向通胀还是通缩，取决于政策的选择。

For inflation，Monetary policy to more forward-looking，Not only see years，Will see next year；Not only to see the domestic，Look even foreign。We want to focus on prices brought about by the inflation expectations change，Also want to pay attention to the intensity of the future with investment incentives increase，Can also cause inflation expectations。If our exciting strength are very gentle，Is not fully，RMB exchange rate is still quite strong position，Probably we have to be careful in 1997 to 2003 years of deflation again。Because a currency is overvalued and deflation。In fact，The future of economic situation and not a conclusive clear conclusion，The future is it to inflation or deflation，Depends on the policy choice。

　　宗良：7月CPI跌破2%，从近期CPI数据我们也可以看出，今年以来通胀压力在显著下降，这为货币政策操作提供了更大空间。央行这次会议上将前瞻性放在首位，表明下一步货币政策将会考虑中长期效果，要既能缓解经济下滑压力，保证经济稳定增长，又要防止通胀未来反弹。预计下半年货币政策将适度、平稳地增加信贷投放，为经济的稳定增长提供资金支持，并且将更加注重优化信贷结构，引导信贷资金往国家支持的方向走。因此货币政策的调节可能将更多地依赖公开市场操作，对市场的流动性进行微调控，以便在“稳增长”和“防通胀”之间寻求一个平衡点。

ZongLiang：July CPI fell below 2%，From a recent CPI data we also can be seen，Since this year inflationary pressures in significantly，This for monetary policy provides more large space。The central bank this meeting will be forward-looking in the first place，Monetary policy that the next step will be to consider long-term effects，Must already can alleviate economic downturn pressure，Ensure steady economic growth，And to prevent future inflation rebound。The second half is expected to monetary policy will moderate、Smooth increase the supply of credit，For steady economic growth to provide financial support，And will pay more attention to optimize the credit structure，Guide to the credit funds of the national support direction。So the adjustment of the monetary policy may will depend more on the open market operation，To market liquidity for the regulation，In order to“Steady growth”and“Against inflation”Between seek a balance point。

　　

针对性 targeted

　　○鲁政委：应该按照市场来调整人民币汇率，目前来看，人民币有效汇率偏高，继续升值的合理性并不存在；正确的政策应该增强人民币汇率的弹性；除了汇率政策之外，我认为下半年没有必要进一步降低基准利率。但是可以考虑充分发挥利率浮动空间的作用，建议进一步扩大人民币对美元浮动区间

○ lu commissar：Should according to market to adjust the RMB exchange rate，So far，RMB exchange rate is on the high side，Continue to rise of rationality does not exist；The correct policy should enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate；In addition to the exchange rate policy away，I think the second half not necessary to further reduce the benchmark rates。But can consider to give full play to the role of interest rates fluctuate，Suggestions to further expand the range of floating to the dollar

　　○华中炜：在商业银行法中，虽然75%的存贷比是一个硬约束，但是对存款和贷款的定义却没有明确的界定，预计这将是未来监管政策放松的突破口

○ central China Hui：In the commercial Banks，Although 75% of the deposit-loan ratio is a hard constraint，But for the definition of deposits and loans but did not have a clear definition，Which is expected to be the future regulatory policy relax breakthrough

　　上海证券报：今年以来，国际政治经济环境复杂多变，国内经济发展面临的困难增多，稳增长被放在了更加重要的位置。在这一背景下，下一阶段货币政策应该如何更有针对性？

Shanghai stock certificate report：Since this year，The international political and economic environment is complicated，Domestic economic development the difficulty of the increase，Steady growth is placed on the more important position。In this context，The next stage monetary policy should be how to more specific？

　　鲁政委：我觉得目前中国经济出现疲软的状态，根本原因是外贸方面出了问题，中国的内需是没有问题的。数据显示，今年第一季度GDP增速是8.1%，内需是8.9%；整个上半年GDP增速是7.8%，内需是8.4%。而且这个8.4%已经是金融危机以来的最低值了。因此无论拉动投资还是刺激消费，都是在刺激内需，这种“外病内治”是一个方向性的错误。而且这导致了企业的负债率继续上升。为什么去年下半年政策的紧缩使得一些企业出现了问题？就是因为其杠杆太高，使得资金链断掉了。既然偏高了，企业就要去杠杆，但在一个持续增长的环境之中，企业是不可能去杠杆的。因为前景如此美好，高负债只能带来更高的利润，我为什么要去杠杆？去杠杆都是在经济回调的时候完成的，但我们最近却在大规模的财政刺激政策之下，使得企业去杠杆的进程被人为地终止了。反倒使得他们进入了继续加杠杆的过程。

Lu commissar：I think that China's current economic appear weak state，Root cause is foreign trade out the problem，China's domestic demand is no problem。Data shows，In the first quarter of this year's GDP growth was 8.1%，Domestic demand is 8.9%；In the first half of the GDP growth was 7.8%，Domestic demand is 8.4%。And the 8.4% is the lowest since the financial crisis。So whatever drive investment or consumption，Are all in stimulating domestic demand，this“Within the disease to”Is a directional mistake。And this leads to the enterprise ratio continue to rise。Why the second half of last year policy crunch makes some enterprise problems？It is because the lever is too high，Make capital chain blocked。Since the high，Enterprise will go to lever，But in a growing surroundings，Enterprise is not possible to leverage。Because so good prospects，High debt can only lead to higher profits，Why should I go to leverage？To leverage is in economic callback when finish，But we have recently but in the scale of the fiscal stimulus policy under，Makes the enterprise to leverage the process is artificially was terminated。But make them into the continue to add lever process。

　　而外需的问题更多是人民币有效汇率偏强，所以就应该按照市场来调整人民币汇率，使得企业需求、现金流改善，而不再增加负债，企业情况也可以改善，从而逐步回到一个正常的轨道上来。我们政府的负债也不用继续上升。目前来看，人民币有效汇率偏高，继续升值的合理性并不存在。此外，其他新兴经济体与美元相比至少回调了10%以上，而人民币回调了1%都不到。事实上，人民币从去年9月就开始出现了明显贬值预期，而且从现在的掉期点来看，贬值预期有增无减。这充分表明人民币已经被高估了。

And the problem is RMB foreign demand more effective exchange rate partial strong，So should according to market to adjust the RMB exchange rate，Makes the enterprise needs、Improve cash flow，But no longer increases liabilities，Enterprise situation can be improved，Thus gradually back to a normal track。Our government debt also need not continue to rise。So far，RMB exchange rate is on the high side，Continue to rise of rationality does not exist。In addition，Other emerging economies and dollars at least compared retraced 10% above，RMB retraced 1% are less than。In fact，The yuan from last September began to appear the obvious expected value，And from the current swap point，Depreciation is expected to grow。This fully suggests that the yuan has been overvalued。

　　因此，正确的政策应该增强人民币汇率的弹性，然后使得人民币汇率能够充分反映中国经济的基本面，实现汇率对于经济的逆周期调节。我们的汇率走到今天，实际上不仅没有起到逆周期调控的作用，还加剧了中国经济周期的波动。我们建议在今年末、明年初，进一步扩大人民币对美元的浮动幅度。从目前的1%扩大到2.25%。这期间，企业也要意识到，随着汇率波动幅度的扩大，实际上隐含的是每个企业都应该为自己的汇率敞口负责，做好避险安排。我要强调的是，人民币贬值不会导致资本大规模流出，反而将更加有利于国际资本的平稳流动。

so，The correct policy should enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate，Then make the RMB exchange rate can fully reflect the fundamentals of the economy，Realize the exchange rate for the inverse of the economic cycle regulation。Our exchange rate go today，In fact not only didn't play a role of inverse cycle regulation，Also aggravate the cycle of China's economic fluctuations。We suggest that in the end of this year、Early next year，To further expand fluctuation range of the yuan against the dollar。From the current 1% to 2.25% expansion。During this，Enterprise also to realize that，With the expansion of the fluctuation of exchange rate，In fact the implied is each enterprise should be responsible for their own currency exposures，Do hedge arrangement。I want to emphasize，The depreciation of RMB will not lead to mass flow of capital，It will be more beneficial to the smooth flow of international capital。

　　除了汇率政策之外，我认为下半年没有必要进一步降低基准利率。但是可以考虑充分发挥利率浮动空间的作用。第一，因为短期快速地降息，房地产作为一个资产的属性，在低利率水平下，不反弹上来很困难。所以，我不赞成未来继续下调基准利率。降息之前我也曾经建议，扩大贷款利率的下浮空间，但是不要调基准利率，否则可能造成资产泡沫化风险。第二，一年期贷款利率是6%，与历史数据相比不是很高。如果打九折，就是5.4%，已经接近有数据记录以来贷款利率最低水平5.31%，所以没有必要继续降息。第三，考虑到货币政策滞后性，年内如果继续降息会给明年的调控带来困扰。其实6月末，贷款的加权利率已经下降了0.56个百分点，已经大于两次降息0.5个百分点的幅度。而随着时间的推移，未来的加权平均利率的降幅会更大，尤其是到明年。所以我们要充分地注意到这种动态的变化，不应该对眼下的贷款利率过于急躁。

In addition to the exchange rate policy away，I think the second half not necessary to further reduce the benchmark rates。But can consider to give full play to the role of interest rates fluctuate。The first，Because short-term quickly to cut interest rates，Real estate as an asset properties，In the low interest rates under level，Not bounce up is very difficult。so，I don't approve of future continue to cut benchmark rates。Before I also suggested that the rate cut，Lending rates floating space，But don't the benchmark rates，Otherwise may cause risk turning into a bubble-and assets。The second，In the benchmark one-year loan interest rate is 6%，Compared with the historical data is not very high。If a nine discount，Is 5.4%，Have close to record data loan interest rate lowest level of 5.31%，So there is no need to continue to cut interest rates。The third，Considering the hysteresis of monetary policy，Years if continue to cut interest rates to the regulation of next year will bring trouble。Actually end of June，The loan interest rates have been weighted down 0.56%，Have more than two cuts rate of 0.5%。And as time goes on，The future of the weighted average interest rate of decline will be greater，Especially in the next year。So we need to fully aware of this dynamic changes，Should not be in the loan interest rate is too impatient。

　　对于准备金，我觉得目前来看，无论央行降不降准备金，由于逆回购的存在，在政策基调不变的情况下，流动性整体都是比较宽裕的。所以我们没必要关注准备金会不会调这个问题，这不重要。

To reserve，I feel so far，No matter the central bank does not fall down reserve，Due to the existence of the reverse repurchase，In the policy fundamental key under the condition of invariable，The overall liquidity is the more prosperous。So we don't need to focus on reserve will attune the problem，It's not important。

　　华中炜：当前政府提出将稳增长放在更为重要的位置，而眼下较为需要的稳增长政策是打破银行体系与实体经济之间资金传导的障碍，确保在建项目、新开工重点项目的投资节奏，从而封住经济下行的底线。为解除银行体系资金向实体经济传导的约束，除了货币政策工具的调整之外，其他突破口可能是缓解存贷比考核、信贷规模等硬约束。

Central China Hui：The current government proposed the steady growth in the more important position，But right now is the steady growth policy is to break the bank system with the entity economy transmission of funds between obstacles，To ensure that project under construction、New construction of the key projects investment rhythm，Thus sealed economic downside bottom line。Remove the bank system for money to the constraints of the real economy conduction，In addition to the adjustment of the monetary policy tools outside，Other breakthrough may be ease deposit-loan ratio assessment、Size of credit and other hard constraint。

　　在存贷比方面，今年以来，每月的新增外汇占款规模出现急速下降，而随着人民币汇率逐渐进入均衡区间，以外汇占款为主导的基础货币投放方式也将逐渐退出历史的舞台。这里的一个直接结果就是整个银行业的存贷比指标开始陆续触及上限，成为商业银行贷款的实质性约束，因此如果这个趋势延续，那么未来整个银行体系的存贷比水平必然要上一个台阶，监管政策也必然需要相应做出调整。在商业银行法中，虽然75%的存贷比是一个硬约束，但是对存款和贷款的定义却没有明确的界定，预计这将是未来监管政策放松的突破口，例如将同业存款计入分母，或者在贷款中去掉一部分政策支持类贷款等都是可以考虑的放松方向。

In the deposit-loan ratio，Since this year，The monthly new combines a sharp decline in foreign exchange scale，But along with the RMB exchange rate gradually into the equilibrium interval，The gap with foreign currency for leading of the base currency on the way also will gradually exit the stage of history。Here's a direct result of the entire banking is the deposit-loan ratio index began to have hit the ceiling，Become a commercial bank loans of real constraint，So if this trend continues，So the future of the banking system as a whole than level and will be on a higher level，Regulatory policies will need corresponding make adjustments。In the commercial Banks，Although 75% of the deposit-loan ratio is a hard constraint，But for the definition of deposits and loans but did not have a clear definition，Which is expected to be the future regulatory policy relax breakthrough，For example, the inter-bank savings included in the denominator，In removing the loans or part of the policy support loans is can consider the relaxation of the direction。

　　今年以来一个重要的现象，就是商业银行一般到了月末最后一个季度才开始大量投放贷款，主要是因为日均贷存比考核的约束，银行在月初和月中时很难预测本月到底可以吸收到多少存款，只有在月末时才可以确认从而开始投放。这一情况显然对企业的生产经营需求造成了困扰。

Since this year is an important phenomenon，Is the commercial Banks to general end last quarter began a lot on the loan，Mainly because of the constraints of the average daily DaiCunBi assessment，Early on in the bank and it is difficult to predict exactly when this month can absorb to how much savings，Only at the end of the month you can only confirm thus begins to put。This is obviously to the production and operation of enterprises demand caused the trouble。

　

　信贷展望 Credit outlook

　　○华中炜：建议引入差别化的存贷比和存款准备金率政策以支持中小金融机构对中小企业的融资需求。

○ central China Hui：To suggest introducing differentiation the deposit-loan ratio and the deposit reserve rate policy to support small and medium sized financial institutions to the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises。

　　○宗良：今年下半年新增贷款可望适度增加，但增加的速度不会太快。全年新增人民币贷款保持在8.5万亿元左右。

○ ZongLiang：The second half of this year is expected to moderate increase new lending，But increasing the speed will not too fast。Annual new renminbi loans remain at 8.5 trillion yuan。

　　上海证券报：目前各地的新开工项目在增加，加之省级地方政府融资平台的支持力度在加大，使得市场对于下半年新增贷款的预期迅速膨胀。您认为下半年新增贷款的增加速度是否会加快？此外，目前信贷资金供求之间存在结构性矛盾，您认为，下一阶段应该如何优化信贷资源配置？

Shanghai stock certificate report：The country at present new projects to increase，Together with the local government financing platform of provincial level in more support，That makes the market for new lending in the second half of the expected rapid expansion。Do you think the second half of the increase of new loans would accelerate the speed？In addition，Current credit between capital supply and demand structural contradictions，Do you think，The next stage should be how to optimize the credit allocation of resources？

　　华中炜：从我们各地调研的情况来看，上半年省一级银行均没有接收到明确的信贷规模放松的政策指导，年初制定的全年的信贷规模计划不调整，如果这个情况持续，按年初制定的全年8万亿的信贷规模来计算，下半年月均信贷量只有5000-6000亿，信贷增速难以加快。

Central China Hui：From our research situation all over，The provincial bank in the first half were not receive clear size of credit relaxed policy guidance，For the beginning of the size of credit plan doesn't adjust，If this continues，Early in 8 trillion for the scale of the credit to calculate，The second half of the average monthly credit amount only 5000-600 billion，To speed up the credit growth。

　　如果说基础设施和房地产贷款因为行业限制而“不能贷”，制造业贷款因为需求疲弱和产能过剩而“不敢贷”，那么中小企业则是因为商业银行的宏观审慎和风险管理而“不愿贷”。正是这三个“不能贷”、“不敢贷”和“不愿贷”才导致了当前有效贷款和有效投资不足，中长期贷款占比的持续下降则证明了这一点。

If the infrastructure and real estate loans for industry and restrictions“Can't borrow”，Manufacturing loans for sluggish demand and excess capacity and“Can't borrow”，So small and medium-sized enterprise it is because of the commercial bank of macro prudent and risk management and“Don't want to borrow”。It is this three“Can't borrow”、“Can't borrow”and“Don't want to borrow”That caused the current effective loans and effective investment insufficiency，Long-term loans accounted for the continued to decline than is proof of that。

　　目前大型商业银行出于风险管理、资源配置的考虑不愿意向中小企业贷款，而愿意提供贷款的中小型银行又陷入流动性、存贷比、资本充足率等各种制约，正是这种贷款供应与贷款需求不匹配的冲突现象使得中小企业的融资成本难以实质性下降。因此，为破解这个冲突，下一阶段的宏观调控政策可适当考虑引入差别化的存贷比和存款准备金率政策以支持中小金融机构对中小企业的融资需求。

The big commercial Banks at present for risk management、The allocation of resources to the consideration to the small and medium enterprise loans，And are willing to provide loans to small and medium-sized Banks and in liquidity、Deposit-loan ratio、Capital adequacy ratio etc various restricted，It is this loan supply and demand for loans do not match the conflict phenomenon medium and small-sized enterprises to substantial financing cost of decline。so，For solving the conflict，The next phase of the macroeconomic regulation and control policy can be properly considering importing differentiation the deposit-loan ratio and the deposit reserve rate policy to support small and medium sized financial institutions to the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises。

　　与此同时，我们也要看到在其他融资渠道方面的开放，例如在债券市场今年一系列的金融创新带来了巨大的发展空间，给企业的融资打开了另一条通道。媒体报道关于AAA级别的中期票据和短期融资券合并计算规模、发改委酝酿发行私募城投债、证监会推动中小企业私募债、资产支持票据的推出，一系列债券市场的变化都会给企业融资带来新的增量。

At the same time，We also have to see in other financing channels open，For example in the bond market this year a series of financial innovation brought tremendous developing space，To the enterprise financing opened another channel。Media reports about the AAA level of short-term financing bonds notes and middle scale incorporate computation、The national development and reform commission issued for private city brewing debt、Small and medium-sized enterprise SiMuZhai CSRC push、The paper introduced the assets backing，A series of bond market changes will bring new increment financing to the enterprise。

　　鲁政委：下半年，与二季度末相比，信贷增速仍会保持平稳水平。全年信贷会在8—9万亿之间。最近以来，平台贷有所放松，房地产有所回暖，所以信贷需求比上半年好一些。当然，你也可以说，随着一些项目上马，也会启动新的信贷需求。还有两次降息之后，融资成本下降。

Lu commissar：The second half，And at the end of the second quarter compared，Credit growth will remain stable level。Annual credit will in 8-9 trillion between。recently，Platform to relax credit，Real estate have warmed，So credit demand better than the first half。Of course，You can also say，With some project mount，Will also start new credit demand。And after two cuts，Financing costs fell。

　　从信贷供给来说，一个持续宽松的货币条件有助于促进银行信贷投放。我们要充分地意识到，在让银行提供更多的中长期贷款时，要注意银行资产负债表所潜藏的风险。

Credit supply from it，A continuous easy monetary conditions will help promote on bank credit。We will fully aware，In the medium and long term, to provide more let the bank loan，To pay attention to the bank balance sheet hidden risks。

　　此外，我认为要更多地考虑用债券等直接融资方式，为需要的企业、项目融资。我们已经看到，今年以来企业债、公司债等债务融资工具的发行在加快，尤其是今年推出了资产支持票据等，都是这方面的积极举措。

In addition，I think that do more to consider using bonds direct financing methods，For the enterprise needs、Project financing。We have seen，Since this year QiYeZhai、The company debt debt financing tools such as the accelerated in the issue，Especially this year launched asset-backed paper, etc，Is this positive action。

　　宗良：近期，贵州、湖南等地投资需求计划很大，市场对于信贷的需求整体趋于上升，这是由于政府稳步推进基础设施项目，加大了对房地产自住型需求和普通住宅建设的贷款支持等，这些都可以从央行发布的上半年金融统计数据上得以验证。上半年货币投放4.86万亿元，货币投放通常有季节性因素，近几年四季一般按3：3：2：2的节奏投放，今年下半年新增贷款可望适度增加，但增加的速度不会太快。全年新增人民币贷款保持在8.5万亿元左右。

ZongLiang：recent，guizhou、Hunan investment demand plan is very large，The market for credit demand overall tends to rise，This is because the government steadily promoting infrastructure projects，More from live type of real estate needs and ordinary residential construction loans support, etc，These can be from the central bank released during the first half of the financial statistics can be validated。Money put in the first half of 4.86 trillion yuan，Hence monetary usually have seasonal factors，In recent years the four seasons by three general：3：2：2 rhythm on the，The second half of this year is expected to moderate increase new lending，But increasing the speed will not too fast。Annual new renminbi loans remain at 8.5 trillion yuan。

　　信贷资金供求之间的结构性矛盾由来已久。我认为，要优化信贷资源配置，加大对实体经济支持力度可从以下几个方面考虑：首先，引导贷款投向实体经济。其次，加大对小微企业贷款的投放，支持民间投资的快速发展。再次，小微型企业要从自身着手，优化信用等级。

Credit funds of the contradiction between supply and demand structure has a long history。I think，To optimize the credit allocation of resources，Increase support to economic entity from the following several aspects to consider：first，Guide to the loan economy。second，To increase the small micro business loans issuance，Support the rapid development of private investment。again，Small miniature enterprise to from their own hands，Optimization credit rating。