晨报记者 张佳籨

The morning paper reporter ZhangJia 籨

　　10月15日7点，2012年诺贝尔经济学奖揭晓的那一刹那，记者先是一阵失望，接着则是羡慕嫉妒恨。

On October 15, 7,2012 the Nobel Prize announced that split second,Reporters first a disappointment,Then it is envy jealousy hate.

　　失望是因为，没猜中今次的两位得奖者。记者心中的喜爱，是罗伯特·席勒和斯蒂芬·罗斯这两位路透社评选的大热门。对于我等投资者，他们两位不是什么陌生人物耶鲁大学国际金融学中心金融学教授罗伯特·席勒当年以那本《非理性繁荣》名声大噪，之后又联合标准普尔推出房地产指数，近期更是和某基金公司联合，推出了投资基金；麻省理工学院斯隆商学院金融学教授斯蒂芬·罗斯则是期权二项式定价模型的共同发现者。

Disappointed because,Don't guess this time two winners.Reporter in the heart of love,Is Robert Schiller and Stephen rose for the two Reuters selection is big popular.For I wait for the investors,They two are not what strange characters Yale university international finance center finance professor Robert shiller when to that Ben[Irrational exuberance]reputation,Then combined standard &poor's launch real estate index,Recently more and some fund companies,Introduced investment fund;MIT Sloan school finance professor Stephen Ross is option binomial pricing model of common discoverer.

　　不过抛开个人情感，想想这两位不得奖也是意料中的事情。对金融市场的研究，一度是诺奖的热门领域，比如以Q值进行股市估值而为投资者熟识1981年得奖的詹姆士·托宾；比如1990年因资产组合理论得奖的哈里·马科维茨、威廉·夏普（就是衡量基金好坏那位夏普比例的夏普）；比如1997年因为期权定价而得奖的罗伯特·默顿，而2003年得奖的克莱夫·格兰杰和罗伯特·恩格尔，他们对经济时间序列的研究更是现代量化投资的基石之一。

But put aside personal emotion,Think about these two things shall not prize is also expected.On the financial market research,Once the Nobel is a hot field,Such as Q value of the stock market valuations for investors and familiar with the 1981 James tobin;In 1990, for example, because of the portfolio theory winners of the harry equidae books/William sharpe(Is the measure of fund stand or fall the sharpe ratio of sharp);In 1997, for example, because the option pricing and winners of the Robert merton,And in 2003 winners of the Clive granger and Robert engel,They to economic time series research is the cornerstone of modern quantitative one of investment.

　　自打1988年由1997年诺奖得主罗伯特·默顿挂帅的长期资本公司破产同时造成金融市场动荡，这些金融市场领域的研究者，美誉度就不再那么高尤其是期权、量化投资方面的研究，更被视为金融市场动荡的来源。眼下，2008年的次贷危机恶果还历历在目，欧债危机也并未过去，在这样的大环境下，诺奖若再次褒奖金融学领域的经济学家，的确有些不合时宜。

Since 1988 by 1997 laureates Robert merton reappearance of long-term capital company bankruptcy while creating turmoil in financial markets,These financial market researcher,Reputation is no longer so high especially option/Quantitative investment research,More is regarded as the source of the turmoil in financial markets.the,2008 years of the subprime crisis still remember consequences,The debt crisis is not the past,In this environment,The Nobel if again praise in the field of finance economists,Indeed some out of time.

　　除了金融学领域，同样有些不合时宜的，恐怕就是经济学中的重要显学宏观经济学了。回顾历史，宏观经济学绝对是诺奖得主扎堆的领域，得主的数目两只手都数不过来，近几年中，2011年得奖的托玛斯·萨金特和克里斯托弗·西姆斯、2006年的埃德蒙德·菲尔普斯、2004年的芬恩·基德兰德和爱德华·普雷斯科特也是宏观经济学的大家。

In addition to finance field,Also some untimely,I'm afraid in economics is an important terms the macroeconomics.Reviewing the history,Macroeconomics is absolutely laureates gathers together to field,The number of the winner of the two hands are countless,In recent years,2011 winners of the holder and Lawrence sargent and Christopher shames/2006 years of Edmund Phelps/2004 years of Finn kidd instructed Edward Prescott is macro economics everybody.

　　虽然宏观经济学家们推出了一套又一套理论，其中不少还亲自参与了政策的制定，但我们的经济生活却并未因此变得更美好，甚至还更糟最明显的例子便是眼下这场欧债危机，欧元体系无疑是根源所在1999年欧元体系正式运作，当年欧元之父蒙代尔也因此获得诺贝尔经济学奖，如今看来显得很是尴尬。无怪乎2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨认为，过去20多年风光无限的宏观经济学，实际上存在重大缺陷。

Although the macroscopic economists introduced a set of and a set of theory,Many of which also personally involved in the policy formulation,But our economic life has not become more beautiful,Even worse the most obvious example is now the European debt crisis,The euro is undoubtedly source system of the euro in 1999 formal operation system,When the father of the euro mundell thus received the Nobel Prize in economics,Now appear is very awkward.No wonder the 2001 Nobel economics prize winner, Joseph SiDiGeLiCi think,In the past more than 20 years scenery infinite macroeconomics,In fact there are big defect.

　　在著名华人经济学家张五常看来，经济学就是象牙塔内的学问，重在“解释”，而不在预测或者实用。但普罗大众对经济学的要求更高。尤其是在中文语境中，“经济”二字本来指的就是“经纶济世”，是要能治理国家大事，对社会有所益处的。在这个要求下，金融学有“捣蛋”的味道，宏观经济学也不给力，与之相比今次得奖的两位所属的博弈论无疑就要靠谱许多了。屈指算来，从1994年约翰·纳什首度因为博弈论获得诺贝尔经济学家，算上2012年的这次，博弈论已是6度获奖。

In the famous Chinese economists seems even when walking,Economics is the tower of ivory inside knowledge,Focuses on"explain",Not in prediction or practical.But the general public of economics to the higher requirements.Especially in the Chinese context,"economic"Two words originally meant"Economy embodies the",Is to be able to control the affairs of state,Have good to society.In this request,Finance have"monkey"taste,Macroeconomics is not to force,Compared with the prize this time two belong to game theory undoubtedly will depend on spectrum a lot.-- can,From 1994 John Nash game theory first because the Nobel economist,Including 2012 this time,Game theory is the 6 degrees.

　　说起博弈论，会想起著名的囚徒困境，到底是坦白从宽还是抗拒从严，博弈论可以找出最佳解决方案。而今年得奖者中的埃尔文·罗斯，更是利用博弈论中的匹配理论设计了肾脏捐赠匹配网络、纽约市高中入学系统，以及医学院毕业生住院培训分配系统，让相关人等切实享受到了好处。所以，从“经纶济世”角度，在机制设计和市场设计方面有大量成功案例的博弈论屡获诺奖，倒也是实至名归。

Speaking of game theory,Will think of the famous prisoner's dilemma,But what is frankly or resist strictly,Game theory can find out the best solution.This year the winners Irwin Ross,Use the game theory is the matching theory design the renal donation matching network/New York city high school admission system,In hospital and medical school graduates training distribution system,Let people enjoy the relevant and practical benefits.so,from"Economy embodies the"Angle,In the mechanism design and market design had a large number of successful cases in the game theory has won the Nobel,Fall is also called.

　　不过，看着斯蒂芬·罗斯因为肾脏捐赠匹配网络、纽约市高中入学系统等而得奖，作为社会学专业毕业的学子，记者自然是无数羡慕嫉妒恨。1992年加里·贝克因为用经济学来分析人类行为，因为在经济社会学上的创见而获得诺贝尔奖，已经让许多社会学家酸酸的，而如今埃尔文·罗斯更干脆是在社会学传统的社会政策而非经济政策领域而得奖，就自然就更让“业界人士”羡慕嫉妒恨了。

but,Look at Stephen Ross for renal donation matching network/New York city high school admission system and the prize,As sociology graduate students,Reporter nature is numerous envy jealousy hate.In 1992, Gary becker because use economics to analyze the human behavior,Because in economic sociology of the original and won a Nobel Prize,Have let many sociologists acid,Now Irwin Ross is more simply in sociology traditional social policy and the non-economic policy areas,Will naturally more let"practitioners"Envy envy the hate.

　　换一个角度想想，经济学面对数学入侵的窘境，就多少有些心理平衡了。虽然博弈论频频获得诺贝尔经济学奖，但许多学人却将其视为数学的分支。这也不奇怪，就先驱者来看，无论是冯·诺依曼还是此领域首夺诺奖的约翰·纳什都是数学家，约翰·纳什获得1994年诺贝尔经济学奖的那篇奠基性论文更是发表在数学杂志上。

Change an Angle to think,Mathematical economics in the face of the plight of invasion,Just some sort of psychological balance.Although the game theory repeatedly won the Nobel Prize in economics,But many scholars but it as a branch of mathematics.This is also not strange,Pioneer to see it,Both von neumann or this field took the first Nobel John Nash are mathematician,John Nash won the 1994 Nobel economics prize the article fundamental paper is published in the journal of mathematics.

　　即使是今年的两位得奖者，虽然被认为是经济学家，但其实劳埃德·夏普里本科和博士读的都是数学，埃尔文·罗斯本科和博士读的也是和数学接近的运筹学。诺贝尔经济学奖频频要给数学家发奖，其实已经凸显了这些年传统经济学的困境。

Even if this year's two winners,Although considered economists,But actually Lloyd XiaPuLi undergraduate and doctor read is mathematics,Irwin Ross undergraduate and doctor read also and mathematics close operations research.The Nobel Prize in economics again and again to give mathematician award prize,In fact have highlighted the these traditional economic predicament.