中新网1月6日电据香港《大公报》报道，香港特区政府向长远房屋策略督导委员会简介香港人口及经济数据，预期8.5万“双非”(夫妻双方都非香港人)儿童将回流、外国公司数目增加、家庭人均数目减少等三大因素会造成长远房屋需求增加。多名委员都认为需要在新的评估中，加入包括流动人口等各种新的社会因素，以准确估算将来的房屋需求。

Beijing on January 6, according to Hong Kong[seas]The report,The Hong Kong SAR government to the steering committee on long term housing strategy Hong Kong population and economic data,Expected 85000"Double -"(Both husband and wife not Hong Kong people)Children will return/Number of foreign companies/Family per capita reduced Numbers of three factors can cause long-term housing demand increased.Many members agree that in the new evaluation is needed,To include all kinds of new social factors such as floating population,In order to accurately estimate the housing demand in the future.

　　长远房屋策略督导委员会将于下星期举行第二次正式会议，讨论房屋供应目标。昨(4日)政府多个部门代表，包括房屋署、规划署、统计处、政府经济顾问等，率先向委员会举行简介会，介绍1998年推算房屋需求的模型，并简介香港最新的经济和人口数据，供委员会参考，以估算未来的房屋需求。

Long term housing strategy steering committee will be held next week for the second time a formal meeting,Discuss the housing supply.yesterday(4,)Several government departments,Including the housing department/The agency/Census and statistics department/Government's economic adviser, etc,Take the lead in a briefing to the committee,Introduced in 1998 to calculate the housing demand model,And introduction of Hong Kong's latest economic and population data,For the reference,In order to estimate the housing demand in the future.

房屋供应压力势增 Housing supply pressure potential

　　会议进行大约3小时，政府公布了多项人口数据，包括“双非”儿童对住屋需求的影响、家庭人均数目的变化、外国公司来港设立总部的数目等，相信这些数据都会影响房屋需求的评估。

Meeting about 3 hours,The government announced a number of demographic data,including"Double -"The influence of children's demand for housing/Change in the number of family per capita/The number of foreign companies set up headquarters in Hong Kong, etc,Believe that these data will affect the assessment of housing demand.

　　委员蔡涯棉会后表示，根据政府统计，香港的“双非”儿童已累积至17万(未计2012年度数字)，而政府的调查显示，当中50%、即约8.5万名婴儿的父母表示，有兴趣将来回港读书居住。他认为，虽然回流“双非”儿童的住屋需求只是房屋供应的一部分，但他们的需要将影响整体需求的评估。

Members CaiYa cotton said after the meeting,According to government statistics,In Hong Kong"Double -"Children have been accumulated to 170000(Not 2012 annual Numbers),And the government's survey,Of 50%/That about 85000 babies of the parents,Is interested in reading back and forth to Hong Kong to live.He thought that,Although the backflow"Double -"Children's housing demand is just one part of the housing supply,But they need to influence the assessment of the overall demand.

　　蔡涯棉又指，数据显示在过去数年，外国公司在港设立总部的数目增加了50%，即来港工作的外来人口增多，这批人有一定的住屋需要，预计他们对中型及大型的单位需求很大。

CaiYa cotton and,Figures show that in the past few years,The number of foreign companies set up headquarters in Hong Kong has increased 50%,Is to work in Hong Kong floating population increase,This group of people have housing needs,Expect their unit is a big demand of medium and large.

　　另一委员李明华则表示，政府预测香港的家庭人口平均数目将由现时的3人，逐年下降，10年后平均每个家庭只有2.7人，在人口持续增加情况下，小家庭的数目将日渐增多，需要更多的住屋单位，政府需要对公营及私营房屋的需求进行更具体的评估。他又指，香港的房屋供求存在严重失衡，尤其在2004年至2011年间，房屋供应量大幅下跌，供应远远落后于需求。

Another member of LiMingHua said,The government predicts average number of the domestic population of Hong Kong from three people,Decreased year by year,After 10 years on average, each family only 2.7 people,Under the condition of increasing population,The number of the family will be increasing,Need more housing units,The government needs to the needs of the public and private housing more specific assessment.He refers to,Hong Kong's housing serious imbalance between supply and demand,Especially in between 2004 and 2011,Housing supply dropped sharply,Supply demand far behind.

　　运输及房屋局副局长邱诚武昨日主持会议。他会后表示，委员在会上交流了看法，有委员认为1998年的模式未必能反映现实状况，并提出了意见，但有关意见是否作为日后推算模式的参考则有待日后的讨论。他又说，长远房屋供应以10年甚至更长的时间为单位，而建屋目标会留有弹性，不是一个固定的数字，而委员未有就建屋目标提出具体建议，要再经讨论才有结论。

Transport and housing bureau, deputy director of the QiuChengWu presided over the meeting yesterday.He said after the meeting,Members of the Shared their opinions at the meeting,Have members think of 1998 model may not reflect the real situation,And puts forward some opinions,But opinions whether as the future forecast model of the reference is to be in the future.He said,Long-term supply of housing units in 10 years or even longer,Built house target can allow flexibility,Is not a fixed number,And member does not housing target concrete Suggestions are put forward,To the discussion is conclusion.

私楼需求较难掌握 It is difficult for private building needs to grasp

　　邱诚武表示，在公营房屋方面，政府的掌握比较好，不论是供应或是排队轮候上公屋都较清晰，但私营房屋需求跟随市场周期，存在很大变化，而过去10年的经济周期上落很大，但长远而言，香港本身的经济增长趋势还是比较稳定，过去10年的平均经济增长有4.5%，可以此趋势为基础，估算长远房屋供应。

QiuChengWu said,In public housing,The government's control is better,Both supply or waiting in line in public rental housing is clear,But private housing demand follow market cycle,There are great changes,And over the past decade on the economic cycle of the fall is very big,But in the long run for,Hong Kong's economic growth is relatively stable,The average growth of 4.5% over the past 10 years,Can be based on the trend,To estimate the long-term housing supply.

　　对于“双非”儿童的回流评估，邱诚武指，有关意向调查是在婴儿出生时向其父母做的，数据可能会随经济及其他因素影响而变化，确切数据仍待评估，但政府今年起已限制非本地孕妇来港产子，现时已经没有新增数字，相信数据不会有大变化，将来的住屋需求只是处理过往的数据。

for"Double -"Children of backflow,QiuChengWu refers to,The intention survey is when the baby was born to their parents,The data may change along with the economic and other factors,Is to assess the exact data,But this year the government has restricted the local pregnant women to Hong Kong law,Now there is no new Numbers,Believe that data will not have big change,The housing demand in the future just deal with the past data.