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名师指导志愿填报:院校参考报考线差排序介绍--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-03-04
好表凭借力 助您登金榜 Good table with force to help your chances
——2013年“院校参考报考线差(位次)排序表”介绍 - 2013"Colleges and universities enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)Sorting table"To introduce
填报高考志愿是一个操作性很强的技术性工作,若只是泛泛地的了解一些基本原则,是远远不够的,因而准确估测各招生院校高考录取分数线则是确保考生填报好高考志愿的关键所在。
Fill in the university entrance exam volunteer is a practical very strong technical work,If only broadly to understand some basic principles,It is not enough,So accurate estimates of the recruitment of students colleges and universities entrance examination admit fractional line is the key to ensure good examinee provided voluntary college entrance examination.
其实,如何估测招生院校当年录取分数线是填报高考志愿时最难把握和解决的问题。这是因为每年在同一个省份招生的院校已近2000所,录取数据太庞杂,普通考生及其家长很难有时间或有耐心对其进行全面整理和分析;加上各年度高考模式不尽相同、高考试题难度有别、同一批次控制分数线不一以及同一院校各年度录取数据的异常波动等因素,致使招生录取数据无论是在横向上还是纵向上,客观上都存在着严重的不可比性。
In fact,How to estimate when the recruitment of students colleges and universities admit fractional line is fill in that year the university entrance exam volunteer is the most difficult to grasp and solve the problem.This is because each year in the same province recruitment of students colleges and universities have nearly 2000,Data is too confused,Ordinary students and their parents is hard to time or patience to overall arrangement and analysis;And each year the university entrance exam mode is not the same/Test is difficult/Control the batch fractional line is different and the same colleges such as abnormal fluctuations of the annual admissions data factors,The enrollment data either in horizontal or vertical,Objectively there is serious is not comparable.
为攻克这个难点问题,李金鹤老师进行了大量的高考数据整理分析工作,早在10多年前就运用统计学和概率论的相关理论,创立了一种全新的分析方法——“3/8黄金线差法”(读作:三八黄金线差法),在高考录取数据定量分析方面作了一些有益的探索,填补了高考志愿研究领域的一项空白。近年,他在总结多年来高考录取数据研究成果的基础上,又丰富、发展了录取数据分析理论,运用“位次优势线差法”对各省的招生录取数据进行了全面的分析研究,计算出各招生院校2013录取分数线及其他参考指标,并按录取批次进行排序,形成了2013《院校参考报考线差(位次)排序表》(目前为山东、湖北、湖南、河南、辽宁五省),以供考生方便快捷、科学合理地筛选目标院校。
To tackle this difficult problem,Li Jinhe teachers of the college entrance examination data analysis work,As early as 10 years ago on the theory of statistics and probability theory,Create a new analysis method --"3/8 of gold line difference method"(read:38 gold line difference method),In the college entrance examination admission data quantitative analysis has made some beneficial exploration,Fill in the volunteer a blank in the research field of the college entrance examination.In recent years,He summed up the for many years in the college entrance examination admission data on the basis of research achievements,And rich/Developed the theory of admissions data analysis,Using the"Minor edge line of difference method"The provincial enrollment data for the comprehensive analysis and research,Calculate the recruitment of students colleges and universities admit fractional line 2013 and other reference indicators,And according to the accepted batch sorting,Form 2013[Colleges and universities enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)Sorting table](Currently in shandong/hubei/hunan/henan/Liaoning province),In order to convenient for the examinee/Science reasonable selection target schools.
该表估测结果的主要贡献在于回答了关于院校录取方面的几个考生急切希望了解的问题:即各录取批次内各招生院校的录取分数有多高?录取位次是多少?报考热度有多大?招生计划有多少?哪些院校必须在第一志愿填报,哪些院校可以在非第一志愿填报?
The table's main contribution to the estimate result is answered about admission to the college a few candidates eager to understand the problem:Namely the accepted batch in the recruitment of students colleges and universities admit a mark?How much is the admission seating arrangement?How much heat enter oneself for an examination?How many recruitment plan?What colleges and universities must first volunteer to fill in,What colleges and universities can be found in the first volunteer to fill?
如果说武书连教授的《中国大学排行榜》给考生评价和选择院校提供了重要依据,解决了院校“好与差”的比较问题,那么,李金鹤专家的《院校参考报考线差(位次)排序表》则给考生分析和判断院校录取情况提供了重要参考,解决了院校录取分数“高与低”(录取位次“前与后”)的估测问题。
If professor takeshi book even[The Chinese university rankings]To the examinee provides important basis for evaluation and selection of colleges and universities,Solved the colleges and universities"Good and bad"Comparison of problem,then,Li Jinhe specialist[Colleges and universities enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)Sorting table]To analyze and judge examinee college admission information provides an important reference,Colleges and universities admit a mark is solved"High and low"(Admission to the seating arrangement"Before and after")The estimate of problem.
这就是考生每年为什么都要选择《院校参考报考线差(位次)排序表》作为填报高考志愿必备工具的原因所在。
That's why every year examinee should choose[Colleges and universities enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)Sorting table]As a necessary tool provided voluntary college entrance examination.
为加深理解,提高大家的实际操作能力,现对“排序表”所涉及的指标及使用方法介绍如下(参见2013“院校参考报考线差(位次)排序表样表”。各省排序表格式、指标大同小异,现以山东《排序表》为主介绍,必要时也将涉及其他省份)。
To deepen the understanding,Enhance everyone's actual operation ability,For now"Sorting table"Involved in the index and method of use is introduced as below(See 2013"Colleges and universities enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)Sorting table sample table".The provinces sorting table type/Indicators of the same,Now in shandong[Sorting table]Give priority to introduce,When necessary, will also be involved in other provinces).
一、2013版排序表的改进 a/2013 version of the sorting table of improvement
李金鹤老师借助排序表估测院校录取分数,已10年有余了。2013年李老师又对排序表进行了较大的改进。主要是对拥有分段表及位次数据的省份全面增加了位次指标。体现在3个方面:
Li Jinhe teacher with the help of sorting table estimated college grades,Has been more than 10 years.In 2013 Mr Li and improvement of sorting table.Main is to have a staging table and seating arrangement data province increased the minor index in an all-round way.Is embodied in three aspects:
一是增加了录取位次指标。不仅提供各院校的录取分数,也相应提供录取位次。
One is to increase the admission seating arrangement.Not only provide colleges admit a mark,Also admitted to provide seating arrangement accordingly.
二是增加了“同分人数”指标。即全省同科类分数相同的考生人数。
Second is to increase the"With the number of points"indicators.Namely the provincial equivalent grades of the class with the same number of candidates.
三是增加了“参考报考位次”指标,与“参考报考线差”一起提供给考生使用。
Three is to increase the"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places"indicators,With the"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"Provide for the use of the examinee.
此外,还将原来的“院校录取线差排序表”更名为“院校参考报考线差(位次)排序表”。
In addition,Will be the original"Colleges and universities to admit a line sorting table"Changed its name to"Colleges and universities enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)Sorting table".
二、排序表主要指标介绍(除山东排序表指标外,也包含年其他省份的部分指标) (2)/Sorting the index table is introduced(In addition to the shandong sorting table indexes,Part of the index is also included in other provinces)
1.一志愿参考报考线差(A列):是以院校以往若干年录取数据为依据,计算的“位次优势线差”加权平均值(本表对部分院校的该指标进行了经验修正)。它是今年报考各院校的参考线差,与“参考报位次”一样,是我们给大家提供的最为重要的定量分析指标。比如清华大学文史类“参考报考线差”为103分,意为单从定量分析的角度看,今年山东文史类考生如果能比一本文史类控制分数线高出103分,则报考清华大学应该有很大把握被录取。
1. Enter oneself for an examination a volunteer reference line(Column A):Is based on data from the past years admitted to colleges and universities,Calculation of the"Minor edge line is poor"A weighted average(This form of some colleges and universities of the index to carry on the empirical correction).It is the differential reference line to enter oneself for an examination the colleges and universities this year,With the"Reference to the power"As well as,Is that we give you the most important quantitative indicators.Such as tsinghua university history class"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"Is 103 points,From the perspective of quantitative analysis for list,Shandong this year history class if candidates can than a literature class 103 points above the line of control,Enter oneself for an examination, was admitted to tsinghua university should has great.
2.一愿参考报考位次(AA列):是以院校以往若干年录取位次为依据,根据一定的“位次优势”计算的参考报考位次。比如北京大学文史类“参考报考位次”为25,意为单从定量分析的角度看,今年山东文史类考生如果能排到全省前25名,则报考北京大学应该能够被录取。“参考报考位次”与“参考报考线差”的意义相同,只不过是分析所用的基础数据不同而已。考生应该将这两个指标结合使用,进行综合分析和判断。
2. Enter oneself for an examination may refer to them accordingly(AA column):Is based on past years admitted to them accordingly,According to a certain"Minor advantage"Enter oneself for an examination the power calculation of reference.Such as Peking University literature and history classes"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places"Is 25,From the perspective of quantitative analysis for list,Shandong this year history class if candidates can row to the top 25 in the province,Should be able to be admitted to enter oneself for an examination Beijing university."Reference to enter oneself for an examination places"With the"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"The meaning of the same,Just is the basis of the analyses of the data is different.Candidates should combine the two measures used,Make a comprehensive analysis and judgment.
3.富余分:意为如果往年按照排序表中所列的参考报考线差这个指标去填报,会有多大分数余量。即若能录取,将超过院校当年录取分数线多少分被录取;若不能录取,将差多少分(以负数表示)。
3. The spare points:Meaning if ever listed in the table according to the sort of reference to enter oneself for an examination line sent the indicators to fill in,How score margin.When can be accepted,Will be more than institutions admitted to admit fractional line is how many points of the year;If you can't admit,How many points will be bad(Expressed as a negative number).
4.富余位:与“富余分”的意义相同,匹配于“参考报考位次”指标。意为如果往年按照排序表中所列的参考报考位次这个指标去填报,会有多少位次余量。即若能录取,将超过院校当年录取位次多少名被录取;若不能录取,将差多少个位次(以负数表示)。
4. Spare bits:With the"Extra points"The meaning of the same,Match the"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places"indicators.Meaning if ever listed in the table according to the sort of reference to enter oneself for an examination places the indicators to fill in,How many minor allowance.When can be accepted,Will be more than college admission places how much name be admitted;If you can't admit,How much a seating arrangement will be sent(Expressed as a negative number).
5.一愿平均投档比例(B列):是以往若干年一志愿投档比例的加权平均值。该比例若大于100%,则往年几乎都能在第一志愿完成招生计划,否则至少有一年在第一志愿未完成计划。
5. May mean cast archives ratio(Column B):Is a weighted average of the past years a volunteer cast archives ratio.If the proportion is more than 100%,The past almost all can complete the enrollment plan in the first volunteer,Or at least a year in the first volunteer unfinished plans.
6.往年平均报考热度(B列)——是以往若干年一愿上线率的加权平均值。一愿上线率是院校第一志愿上线人数与实际录取(或计划)人数的比值。主要用于判断院校的报考热度,如院校能否在第一志愿完成招生计划,考生报考该校上线后录取的可能性有多大。
6. In previous years, the average heat enter oneself for an examination(Column B)- is a weighted average of the previous years may launch rate.May live rate is the first volunteer number online and the actual admission colleges and universities(Or plan to)The ratio of the number.Heat is mainly used for judgment of colleges and universities to enter oneself for an examination,Such as colleges and universities can be completed in the first volunteer recruitment plan,After examinee enter oneself for an examination the school online what are the chances of admission.
7.分数优势变化率(C列):是以往若干年分数优势变化率的加权平均值。分数优势变化率是反映分数优势率在录取区间内变化速度的指标。我们可以根据它知道在录取区间内每增加或降低1分对于分数优势的影响程度。如表1中北京大学的加权分数优势变化率为7.5%,意为报考北大的文史类考生每增加1分其优势率约能增加7.5个百分点;同理,每减少1分约会降低7.5个百分点。
7. Score advantage rate(Column C):A weighted average of the rate of change is in the past score years of advantage.Score advantage rate reflects score advantage rate within the accepted range change speed indicator.We can according to its know each increased or decreased within the accepted range for 1 points advantage influence degree.Such as in table 1 of Beijing university weighted score advantage rate was 7.5%,To enter oneself for an examination of Peking University history class every examinee increase the rate of 1 minute, the advantages can increase about 7.5%;In the same way,Every 1 minute appointment by 7.5%.
8.计划数——院校当年下达到该省的招生计划人数。
8. Plan - schools that year to the province the number of enrollment plan.
9.录取人数——院校当年在该省实际录取人数。实际录取人数一般都等于招生计划,但也有部分院校二者数据不一致。
9. Enrollment - colleges and universities in the province actual enrollment.Admission to the actual number is generally equal to the enrollment plan,But there are also part of colleges and universities of the two data inconsistency.
10.一愿上线数——第一志愿报考某校并达到该院校所在批次控制分数线的考生数。
10. May on-line number - the first choice to enter oneself for an examination a school to the colleges and universities in the batch control fractional line on the number of candidates.
11.一志愿投出数(简称:一愿投出数):省招生办根据院校招生章程规定的投档比例向院校投出的第一志愿考生档案数量。表中凡将投出数涂黑的则表示其小于当年招生计划(即一志愿未完成计划)。
11. A volunteer for several(Hereinafter referred to as:A wish for themselves):Provincial admissions admissions cast archives ratio prescribed by the articles of association according to colleges to universities threw the first choice of the candidate profile number.Who will throw themselves in the table of blackening its less than when the enrollment plan(As a volunteer unfinished plans).
12.一志愿投档最低分(简称:一愿最低分):第一志愿投档考生的最低分数。
12. A volunteer cast archives minimum points(Hereinafter referred to as:May the lowest points):The first volunteer cast archives examinee's minimum scores.
13. 一志愿100%调档线(简称:一愿100%线):根据现行招生政策规定,院校应按招生计划的100%—120%调阅考生档案,择优录取(具体调档比例由院校在此范围内自定,并在招生章程中公布)。一志愿100%调档线是按第一志愿报考该院校考生的分数降序排列后,正好满足招生计划的最后那名考生的分数。实际录取时,最低录取分一般都会低于或等于一志愿100%调档线。这个指标是我们判断考生能否达到院校录取线的基本依据,具有很高的参考价值。由于山东原始数据中没有它的准确数据,因而本表所列“一志愿100%调档线”是以原始数据为依据,合理推算出来的。当一志愿上线人数少于招生计划时,则一志愿100%调档线取本省该批次控制分数线。实际分析时,我们通常把推算出来的“一志愿100%调档线”指标近似地当作“最低录取分”使用。
13. A voluntary 100% line shifting gear(Hereinafter referred to as:One to 100% line):According to the current admissions policy,Colleges should according to the plan of recruit students of 100% - 100% read the examinee archives,merit(The shifting gear ratio by the colleges and universities within the scope of this set,And reported in the articles of association of the admissions).A voluntary 100% shifting gear line is the first volunteer to enter oneself for an examination the colleges and universities according to the examinee scores after descending order,Just meet the enrollment plan of the final candidates.Accepted by the actual,The lowest points, usually less than or equal to a voluntary 100% line shifting gear.This metric is our judge examinee can achieve the basic foundation of colleges and universities to admit a line,Has the very high reference value.Due to the raw data in shandong in the accuracy of the data without it,Therefore listed in this table"A voluntary 100% line shifting gear"Is based on the original data,Reasonable estimates.When a volunteer online enrollment plan for institutions of fewer than,Is a voluntary 100% shifting gear line get the batch control line of the province.The actual analysis,We usually calculate out"A voluntary 100% line shifting gear"As a index approximation"The lowest point"use.
14.一志愿100%录取位次(简称:一愿100%位次):即“一愿100%线”所对应的位次。根据“一愿100%线”的含义可知,它比实际录取位次更可靠。
14. A voluntary 100% admit them accordingly(Hereinafter referred to as:A 100% seating arrangement):That is"One to 100% line"Corresponds to the power.According to the"One to 100% line"The meaning of it,It is more reliable than the actual admission seating arrangement.
15.同分人数:全省同科类(比如文史类)特征成绩与“一愿100%线” 分数相同的考生人数。若能将该指标与“参考报考位次”、“富余位”、“一愿100%线”、“一愿100%位次”以及“参考报考线差”、“富余分”等众多指标结合起来分析,将非常有意义。因为有了“同分人数”,就可以很方便的根据分数推算位次变化情况,也可以根据位次分析分数(或线差)变化情况。
15. With the number of points:The provincial equivalent class(Such as literature and history classes)Characteristics of scores and"One to 100% line" Score the same number of candidates.If can with the indicators"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places"/"Spare a"/"One to 100% line"/"A 100% seating arrangement"As well as"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"/"Extra points"Many indexes such as combined analysis,Will be very meaningful.Because of the"With the number of points",Can easily score calculated them accordingly,Also can be based on the analysis of minor points(Or line is poor)Changes in.
16.高分段——录取到该院校成绩最好的考生所处分数段。
16. High block - admission to the college grades are the best candidates on a scale.
17.最低录取分——院校在补录之前录取考生的最低分数。
17. The lowest points - college admissions examinee's score lowest before collection.
18.平行投档分——院校通过平行志愿录取考生的最低分数。
18. Parallel cast archives -- colleges and universities through parallel voluntary admission candidates the lowest scores.
19.补录人数——院校通过基本志愿表所列各志愿顺序未能完成计划,而采取补报志愿方式录取的考生数。
19. The back tracking number, for each of the colleges and universities through basic volunteer listed in table volunteer order failed to finish the project,And take the prescribed volunteer admit more students.
20.补录最低分——院校通过基本志愿表所列各志愿顺序未能完成计划,而采取补报志愿方式录取考生的最低分数。
20. Through voluntary basic data collection points - the lowest colleges listed each volunteer order failed to finish the project,And take the prescribed admissions examinee's score lowest volunteer way.
此外,与第一志愿一样,二志愿、征集志愿也有投出数指标(涂黑的表示投出数少于该志愿计划)。
In addition,As well as their first choice,Two volunteers/Soliciting volunteers also have several indicators(Blackening of says, which is less than the volunteer program).
三、排序表主要功能 three/Sorting table function
本排序表资料权威,数据齐全,方法科学,可以满足考生填报志愿时从不同的角度进行不同分析的需要,其主要功能如下:
This sorting table data authority,The data is complete,Method of science,Can satisfy the examinee when applying to the needs of the different analysis from different angles,Its main function is as follows:
1.预测院校录取分数(位次)
1. The predict college grades(Seating arrangement)
填报高考志愿关键在于对院校当年录取分数进行准确判断,这是最困扰考生及家长的问题,也是在“位次优势线差法”诞生前尚未有人很好解决的问题。本排序表的最主要功能就在于此,它为大家同时提供了2个定量指标——参考报考线差(A列)及“参考报考位次”,并依次排序,考生只需根据自己的实力进行简单对比,即可迅速准确地筛选出目标院校。
Provided voluntary college entrance examination is the key to college that year admit a mark for accurate judgment,This is the most serious problems in the students and parents,Also is in"Minor edge line of difference method"Before the birth of someone hasn't very well solve the problem.This sorting table this is the main function,It provides two quantitative indicators, at the same time for everybody reference line enter oneself for an examination(Column A)and"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places",And prioritize,A simple comparison test according to their own strength,Can promptly and accurately select target schools.
2.判断院校报考热度
2. Determine heat enter oneself for an examination
可以根据“一愿平均投档比例”(有的省份可据“往年平均报考热度”)对考生报考这所院校的热度进行判断。
You can according to the"May cast archives on average ratio"(But according to some provinces"Average heat enter oneself for an examination")In the heat of the examinee enter oneself for an examination the colleges and universities.
3.为选择非一志愿院校提供依据
3. Provide the basis for choice of a volunteer school
可对“一志愿投出数”与“计划数”的大小关系进行逐年考察,判断院校今年在第一志愿能否完成招生计划。凡“一志愿投出数”≧“计划数”,则该校这个年度在第一志愿就应该能完成招生计划,否则,则在第一志愿不能完成招生计划。显然,如果某校以往各年度在第一志愿都没有完成招生计划,那么就可以作出该校今年在第一志愿仍然可能完不成招生计划的判断。
But to"A volunteer for several"With the"Annual target"The relationship between the size of the year by year,Determine whether colleges and universities this year in the first volunteer recruitment plan.all"A volunteer for several"≧"Annual target",Is the school this year in their first choice should be to complete enrollment plan,otherwise,In the first volunteer cannot complete the enrollment plan.clearly,If a school in the past every year in the first volunteer didn't finish the enrollment plan,You can make the school this year in the first volunteer can still finish the admission plan of judgment.
虽然山东的非一志愿是在一志愿录取结束后再补报,但对于那些各批次刚“贴线”的考生来说,则是避热选择第一志愿院校的重要参考。
Although shandong is not built in a volunteer in a volunteer admission after the prescribed,But for those who just across batches"Stick a line"The candidates for,Is is an important reference for preventing hot the first volunteer school choice.
当然,对于那些同时报考非一志愿院校的省份来说,这种判断则是选择非一志愿院校的重要依据。
Of course,,For those who enter oneself for an examination the province not a volunteer school at the same time,This kind of judgment is the choice of a volunteer school important basis.
4.为未达专科线的考生择校提供依据。
4. Provide the basis for select a school, under the examinee of specialized subject line.
如辽宁专科排序表中的“线下录取人数”指标可供未达到但接近专科线的考生选择目标院校时参考。本表还根据降分录取的年度数分别进行了归类:近几年至少有一年曾有过降分录取情况的院校;至少在近2个年度都曾降分录取的院校;至少在近3个年度都曾降分录取的院校;至少在近4个年度都曾降分录取的院校……降分幅度可以查看本表当年的“补录最低分”。若今年辽宁文史类未达专科线的考生,通过征求志愿报考“阜新高等专科学校”之类院校,是有很大的录取可能的。
Such as liaoning college ranking in the table"Offline enrollment"Metrics are available for students who do not meet but close to specialized subject line target as a reference for colleges and universities.This table is conducted according to accepted annual drop points classification:In recent years, there are at least a year had admitted to drop points situation of colleges and universities;At least not for the last two annual enrollment of colleges and universities have drop points;At least not for the last three annual enrollment of colleges and universities have drop points;At least in recent four year enrollment of colleges and universities have drop points……Amplitude can view data in the drop points"Through the lowest point".If the examinee of liaoning literature class of specialized subject line this year,By asking volunteers to enter oneself for an examination"Fuxin college"Such as colleges and universities,There is a big possible.
5.比较院校招生人数
5. Compare college enrollment
招生人数的多寡也是我们填报志愿时应该考虑的一个重要因素。本排序表详列了以往各年度的计划数或录取人数,可供参考。
The amount of enrollment and we should be considered when applying to one of the important factors.This sorting table column is the usual plan each year, or enrollment,For reference.
6.考察考生的分数优势
6. Test your score
分数优势率对于帮助考生选择报考院校以及填报专业志愿都是极具参考价值的指标。根据前面的介绍,我们是按25%的分数优势率计算的参考报考线差。因此,我们可以根据“加权分数优势变化率”利用下式很方便地计算出任一分数的分数优势率。
Score advantage rate to help students choose to enter oneself for an examination institutions and provided professional volunteer is worth reference indicators.According to the previous introduction,We are according to 25% of the score advantage enter oneself for an examination rate calculation of the reference line.so,We can according to the"Weighted score advantage rate"Using the type is very convenient to calculate the score of the score rate of advantage.
所求分数的分数优势率=25%+(所求分数线差-参考报考线差)×加权分数优势变化率
Ask score score advantage rate = 25% +(For fractional line difference - a reference to enter oneself for an examination line is poor)* weighted score advantage rate
上式中25%为加权3/8线差(即“参考报考线差”)的分数优势率,“加权分数优势变化率”(即往年平均分数优势变化率)可从第“C”列查取。
3/8 of 25% weighted line on(That is"Enter oneself for an examination reference line")Score rate of advantage,"Weighted score advantage rate"(Average score advantage rate is normal)From the first"C"Column to pick up.
四、排序表使用方法 four/Sorting table using method
本排序表的主要作用是可以从能否被录取的角度帮助我们科学合理、方便快捷地筛选报考院校。当已知考生的基本实力(即考生高考分数相对于当年批次控制线的线差或位次)后,它可以告诉我们报考哪些院校比较有把握被录取,报考哪些院校有可能被录取,报考哪些院校被录取的可能性不大,报考哪些院校根本不可能被录取。
Is the main purpose of this sort can be from the perspective of whether be admitted helping us scientific and reasonable/Convenient filtering through to enter oneself for an examination.When examinee's basic power known(The examinee college entrance examination scores relative to the batch control line or seating arrangement)after,It can tell us which colleges and universities is to enter oneself for an examination is sure to be admitted,Enter oneself for an examination which institutions are likely to be accepted,Enter oneself for an examination what college admission is unlikely,Enter oneself for an examination what colleges and universities can't be accepted.
具体使用方法分以下三个步骤。
Specific use way points the following three steps.
第一步:计算考生分数线差。根据考生高考分数(或估分)及当年各批次控制分数线(或估测的各批次控制分数线)计算考生分数线差。假设辽宁省今年的文科考生A,高考分数590分,若辽宁省今年一本文史类控制分数线为530分,则该考生相对于一本控制线的分数线差是60分;若辽宁省今年一本文史类控制分数线为550分,则该考生相对于一本控制线的分数线差是40分。
The first step:Calculating the fractional line is poor.According to the examinee college entrance examination scores(Or estimate)And when each batch fractional line control(Or estimated each batch control fractional line)Calculating the fractional line is poor.Assume that liaoning province this year liberal arts examinee A,The college entrance examination score 590 points,If a history class this year in liaoning province control fractional line is 530 points,Then the candidate relative to a control line fractional line is 60 points;If a history class this year in liaoning province control fractional line is 550 points,Then the candidate relative to a control line fractional line is 40 points.
对于知道分数及分数线后填报志愿的考生来说,考生的分数线差很好计算,并且是一个确定的值。但对于考前填报志愿或考后估分填报志愿的考生来说,千万不能只将考生定位到一个固定的点或线上,而一定要将考生定位到一个合理的区间,除把握住考生的基本水平外,还要充分考虑到考生“最好的可能”和“最差的可能”,即在计算出考生的基本分数线差的基础上,也要计算出考生的“可能最高分数线差”和“可能最低分数线差”,以便制定科学的填报策略和方案,确保万无一失。如某考生平均具有40分线差,最好时可能具有60分线差,最差时可能仅具有20分线差。这种考虑,对于成绩不太稳定的考生尤为重要。
To know the score and score the examinee of application,Good examinee's score difference calculation,And is a certain value.But for the application before or after test for application of examinees,Never will only candidates positioning to a fixed point or line,And be sure to position candidates into a reasonable range,In addition to grasping the basic level of examinee,To fully consider the examinee"The best possible"and"The worst possible",That is on the basis of calculate the examinee's basic difference of fractional line,Also should calculate the examinee"Probably the highest score"and"May be the lowest score is poor",In order to formulate scientific strategy and plan,Be sure.If a candidate has 40 points average line,Best may have 60 points when line is poor,The worst may have only when 20 points in the line.This consideration,Examinee is especially important for performance is not so stable.
如果同时知道考生位次数据,则可直接根据“参考报考位次”指标进行比对。
If know the examinee minor data at the same time,Can direct according to"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places"Compare the indicators.
第二步:确定可选院校范围。根据考生的分数线差确定可选院校的大致范围。假若按线差60分给文史类考生A选择一本A段院校,则应根据线差60分,与一本A段文史类“排序表”第“A”列的“参考报考线差”进行比较。从定量分析的角度说,凡该列“参考报考线差”指标≦60分的院校都可列入可选院校范围之内。当然稍高于60分的部分院校也可列入其内,只不过是在一般情况下,序号越靠前的院校风险越大,录取概率越小;反之,风险越小,录取概率越大。
The second step:Determine the scope of the optional colleges and universities.According to the examinee's scores determine the scope of the optional schools generally.If the line differential 60 according to literature and history class examinee A, choose A section of the colleges and universities,Should be based on line of 60 points,With A piece of literature and history classes"Sorting table"In the first"A"Columns of the"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"To compare.From the perspective of quantitative analysis,All the columns"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"Indicators ≦ 60 colleges can be included in the optional range of colleges and universities.Slightly higher than 60 points, of course, part of the colleges and universities can also be included in the inside,Just in the general case,Serial number, the more the greater the risk of colleges,Admission to the smaller probability;Vice versa,The smaller the risk,The greater the probability of acceptance.
第三步:调整拟报院校的参考线差。主要是根据第 “富余分”( “富余位”)对拟报院校第“A”列“参考报考线差”(“AA”列“参考报考位次”)的可靠程度逐一进行判断,并据此调整报考的参考线差(位次)。富余分、富余位可统称为富余量。富余量越小,风险越大。
The third step:Adjust the plans submitted to the college reference line.Mainly according to the first "Extra points"( "Spare a")To be submitted to the college first"A"column"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"("AA"column"Reference to enter oneself for an examination places")The reliability of case-by-case judgments,And adjust to enter oneself for an examination of the reference line(Seating arrangement).Extra points/Spare bits can be collectively referred to as spare.Surplus quantity is small,The greater the risk.
富余分=参考报考线差 - 某年录取线差
Surplus points = reference to enter oneself for an examination line is poor - one line
富余位=某年录取位次 - 参考报考位次
Spare a = year admission places - refer to enter oneself for an examination places
所以“参考报考线差”(参考报考位次)告诉我们应该按多少线差(位次)去报,而“富余量”数据则告诉我们这样去报在往年会有多大分数(位次)余量。显然,我们应该认真分析“富余量”情况,来调整今年报考各院校的参考线差(位次)。可按以下两种情况分别处理:
so"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"(Reference to enter oneself for an examination places)Tell how much we should according to the line(Seating arrangement)To quote,while"Surplus amount"Data tell us that how to quote the normal scores(Seating arrangement)allowance.clearly,We should be careful analysis"Surplus amount"situation,To adjust the differential reference line to enter oneself for an examination the colleges and universities this year(Seating arrangement).According to the following two situations respectively:
(1)如果院校各年度的富余量都为正数,且都具有一定的值(如富余分10分以上、或富余位达10倍同分人数以上),那么,可以认为 “参考报考线差(位次)”是基本可靠的,可以直接作为我们今年填报该校的参考线差。
(1)If all the annual amount of surplus is positive,And has a certain value(Such as surplus more than 10 points/Or spare a portion with up to 10 times the number above),then,Can be thought of "Enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)"Is the basic and reliable,Can be directly as we fill in the reference line is poor this year.
(2)如果院校各年度的富余量不稳定,或有正有负,或极差很大,那么,就应该结合您对该院校当年录取线差(位次)变化趋势的定性判断来确定。这就是所谓明显具有“大小年”特征的院校,必须先对其今年将可能是“大年”还是“小年”作出基本判断(多为自己的主观判断,实际上带有很大 “赌”的成份),再确定填报该校的参考线差(位次)。
(2)If colleges and universities each year's surplus quantity is unstable,Or there is a negative,Or very poor is very big,then,At the colleges and universities should be combined with you when the line is poor(Seating arrangement)The qualitative judgment to determine the trend.This is what we call has obviously"DaXiaoNian"Characteristics of colleges and universities,Must first this year will likely be on it"annual"or"off-year"Make a basic judgement(Much to their own subjective judgment,With a lot, actually "bet"The composition of the),Make sure fill in the reference line is poor again(Seating arrangement).
将通过以上方法确定的参考线差(位次)再与考生所具有的分数线差(位次)一一比较,就能很容易地筛选出哪些院校门槛太高,不适合填报;哪些院校门槛适中,适合填报;哪些院校门槛太低,不屑于填报;哪些院校录取数据不稳定,风险太大,须谨慎填报。
Will through the above method to determine the reference line is poor(Seating arrangement)Candidates have fractional line is poor again(Seating arrangement)To compare,Will make it easier to select what colleges and universities of the threshold is too high,Not suitable for the declared;Which institutions threshold is moderate,Suited to fill;Which institutions threshold is too low,Above is allowed;What college admissions data is not stable,Risk is too big,Must be carefully fill in.
五、特别提示 five/Special note
1.由于数据量很大,在收集、抄录、整理、计算过程中难免有误。鉴此,请务必对您最后选定院校的录取数据与本省招生办公布的原始数据进行核对,以免因个别错误数据而误导你的填报策略。更望能及时反馈您发现的错误以便再版时更正。
1. Due to the amount of data is very large,In the collection/transcribing/Tidy up/Calculation process is wrong.As a result,Please do for you the last selected college admissions data with original data released by the admissions office to check the province,So as not to mislead you by individual error data fill in strategy.Looking more timely feedback when you find mistakes in order to reprint corrections.
2.虽然多数院校各年度的录取数据相对比较稳定,但高考录取具有很大的不确定性,就单个院校而言,什么意外都可能发生,而且每年都有意外发生。因此,填报高考志愿必须综合分析,决不能机械地使用本排序表提供的定量参考指标,而且志愿表的各批次、各个志愿间应该相互补充,形成一个有机的整体,以保证万无一失。
2. Although most colleges and universities of the annual admissions data is relatively stable,But admitted to the college entrance examination has a great deal of uncertainty,In terms of individual colleges,Anything can happen,And have an accident every year.so,Fill in voluntary college entrance examination must be comprehensive analysis,Must not be mechanically use this sorting table provides quantitative reference indicators,And voluntary table of each batch/Every volunteer should complement each other,To form an organic whole,To ensure foolproof.
3.本排序表的“参考报考线差(位次)”仅是从尽量少浪费分数而又保证以较大的概率跨入院校门槛的角度考虑的,若还想录取到较热门的专业则须根据院校往年各专业录取情况对该指标进行相应调整。
3. The sorting table"Enter oneself for an examination reference line(Seating arrangement)"Only from the waste fraction less as far as possible and assure to larger probability threshold Angle consideration of entering colleges,If still want to admit to a popular professional criterion should be based on various professional colleges and universities enrollment situation is to adjust the indicators.
4.很多省份的排序表是按院校招生代码整理的,若同一院校的不同校区使用相同代码招生(如中国农业大学在山东招生时校本部及烟台校区就使用的是同一个招生代码),要自行分校区分析,以免误报。
4. Many provinces of the sorting table is according to the school admissions code to sort out,If the same different campus of colleges and universities recruit students to use the same code(Such as China agricultural university in shandong province recruitment of students school cadre and yantai campus is using the same admissions code),To analysis on their own campuses,In order to avoid false positives.
5.由于山东各市执行不同的分数线(东营、烟台、威海、日照、莱芜、聊城执行省属线;淄博、枣庄、潍坊、济宁、泰安、临沂、德州、滨州、菏泽执行市属线),所以本排序表的二本批次以济南分数线为基准计算,非济南考生如果达到本地区二本线后,可直接按照济南分数线计算自己所拥有的线差并与“参考报考线差”进行比较。
5. Due to the shandong cities perform different fractional line(dongying/yantai/weihai/rizhao/laiwu/Liaocheng execution belongs to the line;zibo/zaozhuang/weifang/jining/taian/linyi/Texas/binzhou/Heze city line execution),So this sort of table 2 batches based on jinan fractional line is calculated,The jinan examinee if after reaching this region 2 lines,Can be directly calculated by the fractional line of jinan line is poor and that you have"Enter oneself for an examination reference line"To compare.
6.由于山东自2011年始将三本批次归并到了二本批次,所以本排序表计算2010年以前二本批次的线差时所采用的批次控制分数线为当年的三本线。
6. Due to the shandong province since 2011 will merge into three batch 2 batches,So this sort of table 2 batches before 2010 when the differential line of batch control scores for the three lines.
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